The Choice of Input-Out Table Embedded in Regional Econometric Input-Out Models
January 1994
Working Paper Number:
CES-94-01
Abstract
In this paper we investigate the role of input-output data source in the regional econometric input-output models. While there has been a great deal of experimentation focused on the accuracy of alternative methods for estimating regional input-output coefficients, little attention has been directed to the role of accuracy when the input-output system is nested within a broader accounting framework. The issues of accuracy were considered in two contexts, forecasting and impact analysis focusing on a model developed for the Chicago Region. We experimented with three input-output data sources: observed regional data, national input-output, and randomly generated input-output coefficients. The effects of different sources of input-output data on regional econometric input-output model revealed that there are significant differences in results obtained in impact analyses. However, the adjustment processes inherent in the econometric input-output system seem to mute the initial differences in input- output data when the model is used for forecasting. Since applications of these types of models involve both impact and forecasting exercises, there would still seem to be a strong motivation for basing the system on the most accurate set of input-output accounts.
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