This paper describes the effects of a temporary increase in tariffs on the performance and behavior of U.S. manufacturers. Using antidumping duties as an example of temporary protection, I compare the responses of protected manufacturers to those predicted by models of trade with heterogeneous firms. I find that apparent increases in revenue productivity associated with antidumping duties are primarily due to increases in prices and mark-ups, as physical productivity falls among protected plants. Moreover, antidumping duties slow the reallocation of resources from less productive to more productive uses by reducing product-switching behavior among protected plants.
-
Antidumping Duties and Plant-Level Restructuring
December 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-60
This paper examines the effect of antidumping duties on the restructuring activities of protected
plants. Using a dataset that contains the full population of U.S. manufacturers, I find that protected plants increase their capital intensities modestly relative to unprotected plants, but only when antidumping duties have been in place for a sufficient duration. I find little effect of antidumping duties on a proxy for the skilled labor intensity of protected plants.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Are All Trade Protection Policies Created Equal? Empirical Evidence for Nonequivalent Market Power Effects of Tariffs and Quotas
September 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-27
The steel industry has been protected by a wide variety of trade policies, both tariff- and quota-based, over the past decades. This extensive heterogeneity in trade protection provides the opportunity to examine the well-established theoretical literature predicting nonequivalent effects of tariffs and quotas on domestic firms' market power. Robust to a variety of empirical specifications with U.S. Census data on the population of U.S. steel plants from 1967-2002, we find evidence for significant market power effects for binding quota-based protection, but not for tariff-based protection. There is only weak evidence that antidumping protection increases market power.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Globalization and Price Dispersion: Evidence from U.S. Trade Flows
March 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-07
Historically, the integration of international markets has corresponded with decreasing prices for traded goods due to higher competition among suppliers, scale economies, and consumption demand. In recent years, product differentiation and multinational firm pricing behavior across markets and between suppliers make it difficult to assess the degree to which this still occurs. Using a confidential panel dataset comprising the universe of U.S. import trade transactions between 1992 and 2007, this paper explores the change in prices for imported commodities across American trade partners. Overall price dispersion appears to decline, albeit unevenly, over time; nevertheless, there is considerable heterogeneity within commodity groups, geographic regions, and income levels, which may owe to increased product and quality differentiation within commodity categories. Unusually, after controlling for gravity trade factors, trade openness and extensive measures of globalization are positively associated with price dispersion, which suggests a more disaggregated approach both at the commodity and firm level to account for these differences.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
The Effects of Environmental Regulation on the Competiveness of U.S. Manufacturing
January 2011
Working Paper Number:
CES-11-03
Whether and to what extent environmental regulations influence the competitiveness of firms remains a hotly debated issue. Using detailed production data from tens of thousands of U.S. manufacturing plants drawn from Annual Survey of Manufactures, we estimate the effects of environmental regulations'captured by the Clean Air Act Amendments' division of counties into pollutant-specific nonattainment and attainment categories'on manufacturing plants' total factor productivity (TFP) levels. We find that among surviving polluting plants, a nonattainment designation is associated with a roughly 2.6 percent decline in TFP. The regulations governing ozone have particularly discernable effects on productivity, though effects are also seen among particulates and sulfur dioxide emitters. Carbon monoxide nonattainment, on the other hand, appears to increase measured TFP, though this appears to be concentrated among refineries. When we apply corrections for two likely sources of positive bias in these estimates (price mismeasurement and sample selection on survival), we estimate that the total TFP loss for polluting plants in nonattaining counties is 4.8 percent. This corresponds to an annual lost output in the manufacturing sector of roughly $14.7 billion in 1987 dollars ($24.4 billion in 2009 dollars). These costs have important implications for both the intensity and location of firm expansions.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Tariff Pass-Through, Firm Heterogeneity and Product Quality
October 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-37
Previous studies on tariff pass-through were constrained at the industry level. This paper is the first attempt to explore tariff pass-through at the firm level, and to investigate how it depends on firm heterogeneity in productivity and product differentiation in quality. Using an extended version of the Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) model, I show that exporting firms absorb tariff changes by adjusting both their markups and product quality, which leads to an incomplete tariff pass-through. Moreover, tariff absorption elasticity negatively depends on firm productivity for quality differentiated goods, but positively depends on firm productivity for quality homogeneous goods. Using the U.S. transaction level export data and plant-level manufacturing data, I find evidence for these predictions. The firm-level tariff absorption elasticity is 0.87 on average. All products in the sample on average fit the definition of quality differentiated goods, and the tariff absorption elasticity is indeed higher for low productivity firms (1.27) and lower for high productivity firms (0.44). Dividing all products into quality homogeneous goods and quality differentiated goods in terms of various criteria also results in estimates consistent with model predictions for quality differentiated goods.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
The Effects of Productvity and Demand-Specific Factors on Plant Survival and Ownership Change in the U.S. Poultry Industry
July 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-20
In this paper we study the productivity-survival link in the U.S. poultry processing industry using the longitudinal data constructed from five Censuses of Manufactures between 1987 and 2007. First, we study the effects of physical productivity and demand-specific factors on plant survival and ownership change. Second, we analyze the determinants of the firm-level expansion. The results show that higher demand-specific factors decrease the probability of exit and increase the probability of ownership change. The effect of physical productivity on the probability of exit or ownership change is generally insignificant. Also, firms with higher demand-specific factors have higher probability to expand whereas the average firm-level physical productivity turns out to be an insignificant determinant of firm expansion.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Cementing Relationships: Vertical Integration, Foreclosure, Productivity, and Prices
July 2006
Working Paper Number:
CES-06-21
This paper looks at the reasons for and results of vertical integration, with specific regard to its possible effects on market power as proposed in the theoretical literature on foreclosure. It uses a rich data set on producers in the cement and ready-mixed concrete industries over a 34- year period to perform a detailed case study. There is little evidence that foreclosure effects are quantitatively important in these industries. Instead, prices fall, quantities rise, and entry rates remain unchanged when markets become more integrated. We suggest an alternative mechanism that is consistent with these patterns and provide additional evidence in support of it: namely, that higher productivity producers are more likely to vertically integrate, and as has been documented elsewhere, are also larger, more likely to grow and survive, and charge lower prices. We explore possible sources of vertically integrated producers' productivity advantage and find that the advantage is tied to firm size, possibly in part through improved logistics coordination, but not to several other possible explanations.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Product Quality and Firm Heterogeneity in International Trade
March 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-08
I develop and implement a methodology for obtaining plant-level estimates of product quality from revenue and physical output data. Intuitively, firms that sell large quantities of output conditional on price are classified as high quality producers. I use this method to decompose cross-plant variation in price and export status into a quality and an efficiency margin. The empirical results show that prices are increasing in quality and decreasing in efficiency. However, selection into exporting is driven mainly by quality. The finding that changes in quality and efficiency have different impact on the firm's export decision is shown to be inconsistent with the traditional iceberg trade cost formulation and points to the importance of per unit transport costs.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Downsizing, Layoffs and Plant Closure: The Impacts of Import Price Pressure and Technological Growth on U.S. Textile Producers
April 2006
Working Paper Number:
CES-06-10
Downsizing, layoffs and plant closure are three plant-level responses to adverse economic conditions. I provide a theoretical and empirical analysis that illustrates the sources of each phenomenon and the implications for production and employment in the textiles industry. I consider two potential causes of these phenomena: technological progress and increased import competition. I create a micro-founded model of plant-level decision-making and combine it with conditions for dynamic market equilibrium. Through use of detailed plant-level information available in the US Census of Manufacturers and the Annual Survey of Manufacturers for the period 1982-2001, along with price data on imports, I examine the relative contribution of technology and import competition to the decline in output, employment and number of plants in textiles production in the US in recent years. The market-clearing domestic price of textiles is identified as a crucial channel in transmitting technology or import price shocks to downsizing, layoffs and plant closure. The model is estimated on two 4-digit sectors of textiles production (SIC 2211, broadwoven cotton and SIC 2221, broadwoven man-made fiber). The results validate modeling the production sectors as monopolistically competitive, and the elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic varieties is found to be quite high. The coefficients on the productive technology are sensible, as are the estimated parameters of the plant exit, entry and investment decision rules. In simulations for the broadwoven cotton industry, the effects of technological progress are shown to have a much larger impact on layoffs than on plant closure, with plant size as measured by output actually increasing. Falling foreign prices lead to greater relative magnitudes of plant closure than of downsizing or layoffs.
View Full
Paper PDF
-
Firm Finances and Responses to Trade Liberalization: Evidence from U.S. Tariffs on China
November 2021
Working Paper Number:
CES-21-37
This paper examines the relationship between a firm's finances and its response to trade liberalization. Using a landmark change in U.S. tariff policy vis-'-vis Chinese imports and micro level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, I find larger manufacturing job losses in better capitalized firms - those with less leverage and more cash on hand. The effects concentrate in industries where weaker balance sheets are likely to lead to collateral and other borrowing constraints, helping rule out alternative explanations. Finally, domestic manufacturing job losses are not accompanied by greater reductions in sales or aggregate employment, but better capitalized firms do exhibit reduced input costs and increased productivity. These findings point to offshoring as the predominant firm response to trade liberalization and suggest a role for financial capacity in facilitating offshoring investments.
View Full
Paper PDF