Casino-style gaming is an important economic development strategy for many American Indian tribes throughout the United States. Using confidential Census microdata and a database
of tribal government-owned casinos, I examine the local labor market effects of tribal gaming on different markets, over different time horizons, and for different subgroups. I find that tribal gaming is responsible for sustained improvements in employment and wages on reservations and that American Indians benefit the most. I also find that tribal gaming increases the average rental price of housing but by an amount smaller than the average wage increase, suggesting net local benefits.
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Place Based Economic Development and Tribal Casinos
April 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-24
Tribal lands in the U.S. have historically experienced some of the worst economic conditions in the nation. We review some existing research on the effect of American Indian tribal casinos on various measures of local economic development. This is an industry that began in the early 1990s and currently generates more than $40 billion annually. We also review the state of the literature on the effects of casino operations on communities in or adjacent to tribal areas. Using a new dataset linking individual and enterprise-level data longitudinally, this study examines the industry- and location-specific impacts of tribal casino operations. We focus in particular on the employment of American Indians. We document positive flows from unemployment and non-casino geographies to work in sectors related to casino operations. Tribal casinos differ from other standard place-based economic development projects in that they are focused on a single industry; we discuss these differences and note that some of the positive spillover effects may be similar to other, more standard place-based policies. Finally, we discuss additional and open-ended questions for future research on this topic.
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Technifying Ventures
July 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-49
How do advanced technology adoption and venture capital (VC) funding impact employment and growth? An analysis of data from the US Census Bureau suggests that while both advanced technology use and VC funding matter on their own for firm outcomes, their joint presence is most strongly correlated with higher employment levels. VC presence is linked with a high increase in employment, though primarily among a limited subset of firms. In contrast, technology adoption is associated with a smaller rise in employment, yet it influences a considerably larger number of firms. A model of startups is created, focusing on decisions to use advanced technology and seek VC funding. The model is compared with firm-level data on employment, advanced technology use, and VC investment. Several thought experiments are conducted using the model. Some experiments assess the importance of advanced technology and VC in the economy. Others examine the reallocation effects across firms with different technology choices and funding sources in response to shifts in taxes and subsidies.
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Assessing the Incidence and Efficiency of a Prominent Place Based Policy
February 2011
Working Paper Number:
CES-11-07
This paper empirically assesses the incidence and efficiency of Round I of the federal urban Empowerment Zone (EZ) program using confidential microdata from the Decennial Census and the Longitudinal Business Database. Using rejected and future applicants to the EZ program as controls, we find that EZ designation substantially increased employment in zone neighborhoods and generated wage increases for local workers without corresponding increases in population or the local cost of living. The results suggest the efficiency costs of first Round EZs were relatively small.
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The Effect of Power Plants on Local Housing Values and Rents: Evidence from Restricted Census Microdata
July 2008
Working Paper Number:
CES-08-19
Current trends in electricity consumption imply that hundreds of new fossil-fuel power plants will be built in the United States over the next several decades. Power plant siting has become increasingly contentious, in part because power plants are a source of numerous negative local externalities including elevated levels of air pollution, haze, noise and traffic. Policymakers attempt to take these local disamenities into account when siting facilities, but little reliable evidence is available about their quantitative importance. This paper examines neighborhoods in the United States where power plants were opened during the 1990s using household-level data from a restricted version of the U.S. decennial census. Compared to neighborhoods farther away, housing values and rents decreased by 3-5% between 1990 and 2000 in neighborhoods near sites. Estimates of household marginal willingness-to-pay to avoid power plants are reported separately for natural gas and other types of plants, large plants and small plants, base load plants and peaker plants, and upwind and downwind households.
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The Impact of Local Labor Market Conditions on the Demand for Education: Evidence from Indian Casinos
June 2006
Working Paper Number:
CES-06-14
Using restricted-use data from the 1990 and 2000 Census long-form, we analyze the impact of local labor market conditions on the demand for education using the economic shock produced by the opening of a new casino on an Indian reservation as the identifying event. Federal legislation in 1988 allowed Indian tribes to open casinos in many states and since then, over 400 casinos have opened, 240 of which have Las Vegas-style games. We demonstrate that the opening of a casino increased the employment and wages of low-skilled workers. Young adults responded by dropping out of high school and reducing college enrollment rates, even though many tribes have generous college tuition subsidy programs.
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Creating High-Opportunity Neighborhoods: Evidence from the HOPE VI Program
January 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-02
We study whether low-economic-mobility neighborhoods can be transformed into high-mobility areas by analyzing the HOPE VI program, which invested $17 billion to revitalize 262 distressed public housing developments. We estimate the program's impacts using a matched difference-in-differences design, comparing outcomes in revitalized developments to observably similar control developments using anonymized tax records. HOPE VI reduced neighborhood poverty rates by attracting higher-income families to revitalized neighborhoods, but had no causal impact on the earnings of adults living in public housing units. Children raised in revitalized public housing units earn more, are more likely to attend college, and are less likely to be incarcerated. Using a movers exposure design and sibling comparisons, we show that these improvements were driven by changes in neighborhoods' causal effects on children's outcomes. The improvements in neighborhood causal effects were driven in large part by changes in social interaction: HOPE VI increased interaction between public housing residents and peers in surrounding neighborhoods and increased earnings more for subgroups with higher-income peers. Many low-income families in the U.S. currently live in neighborhoods that are as socially isolated as the HOPE VI developments were prior to revitalization. We conclude that it is feasible to create high-opportunity neighborhoods and that connecting socially isolated areas to surrounding communities is a cost-effective approach to doing so.
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Displaced workers, early leavers, and re-employment wages
November 2002
Working Paper Number:
tp-2002-18
In this paper, we lay out a search model that takes explicitly into account the
information flow prior to a mass layoff. Using universal wage data files that allow
us to identify individuals working with healthy and displacing firms both at
the time of displacement as well as any other time period, we test the predictions
of the model on re-employment wage differentials. Workers leaving a "distressed"
firm have higher re-employment wages than workers who stay with the
distressed firm until displacement. This result is robust to the inclusion of controls
for worker quality and unobservable firm characteristics.
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Does Rapid Transit and Light Rail Infrastructure Improve Labor Market Outcomes?
April 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-22
Public transit has often been proposed as a solution to the spatial mismatch hypothesis but the link between public transit accessibility and employment has not been firmly established in the literature. Los Angeles provides an interesting case study ' as the city has transformed from zero rail infrastructure before the 1990s to a large network consisting of subway, light rail, and bus rapid transit servicing diverse neighborhoods. I use confidential panel data from the American Community Survey, treating route placement as endogenous, which is then instrumented by the distance from the centroid of each tract in LA to a hypothetical Metro route. Overall, I find proximity to Metro stations increases employment for residents, which is robust to using both a binary and continuous measure of distance. Additionally, I find evidence that increased job density in neighborhoods near new transit stations is contributing to the employment increase.
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A Shock by Any Other Name? Reconsidering the Impacts of Local Demand Shocks
February 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-10
Over the last decade, research on labor market adjustment following local demand shocks has expanded to explore a wide variety of measured shocks. However, the worker adjustments observed in response to these shocks are not always consistent across studies. We create a harmonized set of annual commuting-zone-level shocks following the major approaches in the literature to investigate these differences. As one might expect, shocks of different types exhibit different geographic and temporal patterns and are generally weakly correlated with each other. We find they also generate different employment and migration responses, with trade-related shocks showing little response on either margin, while more general Bartik-style shocks are associated with economically meaningful changes in both employment and migration.
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FALLING HOUSE PRICES AND LABOR MOBILITY: EVIDENCE FROM MATCHED EMPLOYER-EMPLOYEE DATA
August 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-43
This study uses worker-level employment data from the U.S. Census Bureau to test whether falling home prices affect a worker's propensity to take a job in a different metropolitan area from where he is currently located. Using a sample of workers from the American Community Survey, I employ a within-MSA-time estimation that compares homeowners to renters in their propensities to relocate for jobs according to data from the Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics database. This strategy allows me to disentangle the influence of house prices from that of other time-varying, location-specific shocks. Estimates show that homeowners who have experienced declines in the nominal value of their home are approximately 20% less likely to take a new job in a location outside of the metropolitan area that they currently live and work in, relative to an equivalent renter. This evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that housing lock-in has contributed to the decreased labor mobility of homeowners during the recent housing bust.
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