Access to financial capital is vital for the sustainability of the local business sector in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan communities. Recent research on the restructuring of the financial industry from local owned banks to interstate conglomerates has raised questions about the impact on rural economies. In this paper, we begin our exploration of the Market Concentration Hypothesis and the Local Bank Hypothesis. The former proposes that there is a negative relationship between the percent of banks that are locally owned in the local economy and the rate of business births and continuations, and a positive effect on business deaths, while that latter proposes that there is a positive relationship between the percent of banks that are locally owned in the local economy and the rate of business births and continuations, and a negative effect on business deaths. To examine these hypotheses, we examine the impact of bank ownership concentration (percent of banks that are locally owned in a commuting zone) on business establishment births and deaths in metropolitan, micropolitan and non-core rural commuting zones. We employ panel regression models for the 1980-2010 time frame, demonstrating robustness to several specifications and spatial spillover effects. We find that local bank concentration is positively related to business dynamism in rural commuting zones, providing support to the importance of relational lending in rural areas, while finding support for the importance of market concentration in urban areas. The implications of this research are important for rural sociology, regional economics, and finance.
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THE DYNAMICS OF LATINO-OWNED BUSINESS WITH COMPARISIONS TO OTHER ETHNICITIES
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-33
This paper employs the Michigan Census Research Data Center to merge three limited-access Census Bureau data sets by individual firm and establishment level to investigate the factors associated with the Latino-owned Business (LOB) location and dynamics over time. The three main LOB outcomes under analysis are as follows: (1) the probability of a business being Latino-owned as opposed to a business being Asian-owned, Black-owned, or White-owned; (2) the probability of new business entry and exit; and (3) LOB employment growth. This paper then compares these factors associated with LOB with past findings on businesses that are Asian-owned, Black-owned, and White-owned. Some notable findings include: (1) only Black business owners are less associated with using personal savings as start-up capital than Latinos; (2) the only significant coefficient on start-up capital source is personal savings and it increases the odds of survival of a Latino business by 4%; (3) on average, having Puerto Rican ancestry decreases the odds of business survival; and (4) LOB are relatively likely to start a business with a small amount of capital, which, in turn, limits their future growth.
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Brighter Prospects? Assessing the Franchise Advantage using Census Data
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-21
This paper uses Census micro data to examine how starting a business as a franchise rather than an independent business affects its survival and growth prospects. We first consider the factors that influence the business owner's decision about being franchised, and then use different empirical approaches to correct for selection bias in our performance analyses. We find that franchised businesses on average benefit from higher survival rates and faster initial growth relative to independent businesses. However, the effects are not large and, conditional on first-year survival, the differences basically disappear. We briefly discuss potential mechanisms to explain these results. U.S. Census Bureau. All results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed. Support for this research at the Michigan Census Research Data Center is gratefully acknowledged.
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Small Business Growth and Failure during the Great Recession: The Role of House Prices, Race & Gender
November 2016
Working Paper Number:
carra-2016-08
Using 2002-2011 data from the Longitudinal Business Database linked to the 2002 and 2007 Survey of Business Owners, this paper explores whether (through a collateral channel) the rise in home prices over the early 2000's and their subsequent fall associated with the Great Recession had differential impacts on business performance across owner race, ethnicity and gender. We find that the employment growth rate of minority-owned firms, particularly black and Hispanic-owned firms, is more sensitive to changes in house prices than is that of their nonminority-owned counterparts.
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THE IMPACT OF LATINO-OWNED BUSINESS ON LOCAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-34
This paper takes advantage of the Michigan Census Research Data Center to merge limited-access Census Bureau data with county level information to investigate the impact of Latino-owned business (LOB) employment share on local economic performance measures, namely per capita income, employment, poverty, and population growth. Beginning with OLS and then moving to the Spatial Durbin Model, this paper shows the impact of LOB overall employment share is insignificant. When decomposed into various industries, however, LOB employment share does have a significant impact on economic performance measures. Significance varies by industry, but the results support a divide in the impact of LOB employment share in low and high-barrier industries.
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OWNER CHARACTERISTICS AND FIRM PERFORMANCE DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
September 2014
Working Paper Number:
CES-14-36
Minority owned businesses are an increasing important component of the U.S. economy, growing at twice the rate of all U.S. businesses between 2002 and 2007. However, a growing literature indicates that minority-owned businesses may have been especially impacted by the Great Recession. As house prices declined, foreclosures fell disproportionately on urban minority neighborhoods and one of the sources of credit for business owners was severely constrained. Using 2002-2011 data from the Longitudinal Business Database linked to the 2002 Survey of Business Owners, this paper adds to the literature by examining the employment growth and survival of minority and women employer businesses during the last decade, including the Great Recession. At first glance, our preliminary findings suggest that black and women-owned businesses underperform white, male-owned businesses, that Asian-owned businesses outperform other groups, and that Hispanic-owned businesses outperform non-Hispanic ones in regards to employment growth. However, when we look only at continuing firms, black-owned businesses outperform white-owned businesses in terms of employment growth. At the same time, we also find that the recession appears to have impacted black-owned and Hispanic-owned businesses more severely than their counterparts, in terms of employment growth as well as survival. This is also the case for continuing black and Hispanic-owned firms.
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A Shore Thing: Post-Hurricane Outcomes for Businesses in Coastal Areas
September 2020
Working Paper Number:
CES-20-27
During the twenty-first century, hurricanes, heavy storms, and flooding have affected many areas in the United States. Natural disasters and climate change can cause property damage and could have an impact on a variety of business outcomes. This paper builds upon existing research and literature that analyzes the impact of natural disasters on businesses. Specifically, we look at the differential effect of eight hurricanes during the period 2000-2009 on establishments in coastal counties relative to establishments in coastal-adjacent or inland counties. Our outcomes of interest include establishment employment and death. We find that following a hurricane event, establishments located in a coastal county have lower employment and increased probability of death relative to establishments in non-coastal counties.
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LOCALIZED EFFECTS OF CALIFORNIA'S MILITARY BASE REALIGNMENTS: EVIDENCE FROM MULTI-SECTOR LONGITUDINAL MICRODATA
December 1998
Working Paper Number:
CES-98-19
Cuts in U.S. Department of Defense budgets have led to changes in the personnel levels at military bases throughout the United States. Because these bases are often significant sources of civilian and military employment and also provide customers for local businesses, closing them distresses local citizens, business leaders and politicians. In, Defense Secretary William Cohen launched a new drive to close dozens more military bases. Given the timeliness and magnitude of these actions, and in light of the predictions of hardship surrounding them, it is important to realistically assess the impact of substantial personnel changes at military bases on employment at neighboring businesses. This study utilizes a new and uniquely well-suited confidential dataset to analyze this issue at the level closures' impact are thought to occur: individual establishments and their employees. Using an establishment-level panel dataset that covers all private establishments in California with positive employment from 1989 to 1996, I examine how the employment dynamics of establishments across the full spectrum of industries are affected by personnel changes at nearby military bases and find that despite establishments' growth rates declining, more establishments going out of business and fewer new ones starting, when bases close workers' employment prospects actually improve.
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Analysis of Young Neighborhood Firms Serving Urban Minority Clients
May 2008
Working Paper Number:
CES-08-11
This study empirically investigates Michael Porter's hypothesis that urban minority neighborhoods offer attractive opportunities to household-oriented businesses, such as retail firms (1995). Our analysis compares the traits and performance of firms serving predominantly minority clients to those selling their products largely to clients who are nonminority whites. Controlling statistically for applicable firm and owner characteristics, our findings indicate that the minority neighborhood niche does not offer young firms an attractive set of opportunities. Relative to opportunities in the corresponding nonminority household niche and the broader regional marketplace, the neighborhood minority household market is associated with reduced business viability.
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Business Dynamics on American Indian Reservations: Evidence from Longitudinal Datasets
November 2020
Working Paper Number:
CES-20-38
We use confidential US Census Bureau data to analyze the difference in business establishment dynamics by geographic location on or off of American Indian reservations over the period of the Great Recession, and subsequent recovery (2007-2016). We geocoded U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Business Database, a dataset with records of all employer business establishments in the U.S. for location in an American Indian Reservation and used it to examine whether there are differences in business establishment survival rates over time by virtue of their location. We find that business establishments located on American Indian reservations have higher survival rates than establishments located in comparable counties. These results are particularly strong for the education, arts and entertainment, wholesale and retail, and public administration industries. While we are not fully able to explain this result, it is consistent with the business establishments being positively selected with respect to survival given the large obstacles necessary to start a business on a reservation in the first place. Alternatively, there may be certain safeguards in a reservation economy that protect business establishments from external economic shocks.
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Financial Intermediation and Late Development: The Case of Meiji Japan, 1868 to 1912
January 2008
Working Paper Number:
CES-08-01
Was nineteenth century Japan an example of finance-led growth? Using a new panel dataset of startup firms from the Meiji Period (1868-1912), I test whether financial sector development influenced the emergence of modern industries. Results from multiple econometric models suggest that increased financial intermediation, particularly from banks, is associated with greater firm establishment. This corresponds with the theory of late development that industrialization requires intermediaries to mobilize and allocate financing. The effect is pronounced in the second half of the period and for heavy industries, which may be due to improved institutions and larger capital requirements, respectively.
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