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Decomposing Aggregate Trade Flows: New Evidence from U.S. Traders

September 2012

Written by: C.J. Krizan, Fariha Kamal

Working Paper Number:

CES-12-17

Abstract

Using firm-level data on export transactions, we uncover a rich set of results about the extensive margins of exporting and exporter responses during periods of global downturns. We perform our analysis with respect to firm size, age, ownership status, and sector to emphasize the role of firm heterogeneity. We uncover a larger role for firm entry and exit in changes in annual export flows of single-unit, smaller, and younger firms. Young, small firms perform best during both periods of crises as well as non-crises periods. We also decompose the margins of U.S. imports at the U.S. importer, foreign supplier, and U.S. importer-foreign supplier pair levels. While export flows are closely correlated with global business cycles, import flows more closely approximate U.S. economic cycles. Additionally, both pair and foreign supplier flows are far more volatile than U.S. import flows, that is, U.S. importer-foreign supplier matches experience more churning on average than do either U.S. importers or foreign suppliers.

Document Tags and Keywords

Keywords Keywords are automatically generated using KeyBERT, a powerful and innovative keyword extraction tool that utilizes BERT embeddings to ensure high-quality and contextually relevant keywords.

By analyzing the content of working papers, KeyBERT identifies terms and phrases that capture the essence of the text, highlighting the most significant topics and trends. This approach not only enhances searchability but provides connections that go beyond potentially domain-specific author-defined keywords.
:
market, macroeconomic, sale, import, export, financial, subsidiary, recession, export growth, exporting, exporter, multinational, foreign, firms export, supplier, exported, trading, importer, trader, export market, exporting firms

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:
Internal Revenue Service, Longitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database, Business Dynamics Statistics, Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics

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