CREAT: Census Research Exploration and Analysis Tool

Fatal Errors: The Mortality Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts

June 2023

Working Paper Number:

CES-23-30

Abstract

We provide the first revealed preference estimates of the benefits of routine weather forecasts. The benefits come from how people use advance information to reduce mor tality from heat and cold. Theoretically, more accurate forecasts reduce mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of mortality events and weather forecasts for a twelve-year period in the U.S. Results show that erroneously mild forecasts increase mortality whereas erro neously extreme forecasts do not reduce mortality. Making forecasts 50% more accurate would save 2,200 lives per year. The public would be willing to pay $112 billion to make forecasts 50% more accurate over the remainder of the century, of which $22 billion reflects how forecasts facilitate adaptation to climate change.

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:
econometrically, estimation, economist, estimating, regression, forecast, bias, mortality

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:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Columbia University, Energy Information Administration, Environmental Protection Agency, Housing and Urban Development, National Research Council, American Community Survey, American Housing Survey, Disclosure Review Board, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Federal Statistical Research Data Center

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