Large family-owned conglomerates known as zaibatsu have long been credited with leading Japanese industrialization during the Meiji Period (1868-1912), despite a lack of empirical analysis. Using a new dataset collected from corporate genealogies estimate of entry probabilities, I find that characteristics associated with zaibatsu increase a firm's likelihood of being an industry pioneer. In particular, first entry probabilities increase with industry diversification and private ownership, which may provide internal financing and risk-sharing, respectively. Nevertheless, the costs of excessive diversification may deter additional pioneering, which may account for the loss of zaibatsu technological leadership by the turn of the century.
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Entrepreneurship and Japanese Industrialization in Historical Perspective
September 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-30
Studies of entrepreneurship in nineteenth century Japan typically focus on the activities of leading industrialists who founded large, family-owned conglomerates known as zaibatsu. These individuals do not conform well with the archetypal Schumpeterian entrepreneur, but this discrepancy may be more an issue of context than behavior. However, due to a lack of documentation for smaller independent firms, it is difficult to make this comparison. To broaden the scope of analysis, I use data drawn from corporate genealogies, which provide a more complete cross-section of entrepreneurial activity. This dataset of firm entry during the Meiji Period (1868-1912) covers a wide range of industries, allowing me to analyze aspects of Japan's early industrialization that heretofore have relied on anecdotal or case evidence. I also propose a game-theoretic model of entry appropriate for entrepreneurs in late developing economies that exploit the qualitative nature of these data.
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Financial Intermediation and Late Development: The Case of Meiji Japan, 1868 to 1912
January 2008
Working Paper Number:
CES-08-01
Was nineteenth century Japan an example of finance-led growth? Using a new panel dataset of startup firms from the Meiji Period (1868-1912), I test whether financial sector development influenced the emergence of modern industries. Results from multiple econometric models suggest that increased financial intermediation, particularly from banks, is associated with greater firm establishment. This corresponds with the theory of late development that industrialization requires intermediaries to mobilize and allocate financing. The effect is pronounced in the second half of the period and for heavy industries, which may be due to improved institutions and larger capital requirements, respectively.
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The Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs: An Update
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-46
We provide an update on the Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs (ASE), which is a relatively new Census Bureau business survey. About 290,000 employer firms in the private, non-agricultural U.S. economy are in the ASE sample. Its content is relatively constant over collections, allowing for comparability over time; however, each year there are approximately ten new questions in a changing topical module. Earlier topical modules covered innovation (2014) and management practices (2015). The topical module for reference year 2016 covers business advice and planning, finance, and regulations. The ASE is collected through a partnership of the Census Bureau with the Kauffman Foundation and the Minority Business Development Agency. Qualified researchers on approved projects may request access to the ASE micro data through the Federal Statistical Research Data Center (FSRDC) network.
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Globalization and Price Dispersion: Evidence from U.S. Trade Flows
March 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-07
Historically, the integration of international markets has corresponded with decreasing prices for traded goods due to higher competition among suppliers, scale economies, and consumption demand. In recent years, product differentiation and multinational firm pricing behavior across markets and between suppliers make it difficult to assess the degree to which this still occurs. Using a confidential panel dataset comprising the universe of U.S. import trade transactions between 1992 and 2007, this paper explores the change in prices for imported commodities across American trade partners. Overall price dispersion appears to decline, albeit unevenly, over time; nevertheless, there is considerable heterogeneity within commodity groups, geographic regions, and income levels, which may owe to increased product and quality differentiation within commodity categories. Unusually, after controlling for gravity trade factors, trade openness and extensive measures of globalization are positively associated with price dispersion, which suggests a more disaggregated approach both at the commodity and firm level to account for these differences.
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Survival Patterns Among Newcomers to Franchising
January 1997
Working Paper Number:
CES-97-01
This study analyzes survival patterns among franchisee firms and establishments that began operations in 1986 and 1987. Differing methodologies and data bases are utilized to demonstrate that 1) franchises have higher survival rates than independents, and 2) franchises have lower survival rates than independent business formations. Analyses of corporate establishment data generate high franchisee survival rates relative to independents, while analyses of young firm data generate the opposite pattern. In either case, the franchise trait is one of several determinants of survival prospects. The larger-scale, more established firms consistently stay in operation more frequently than smaller-scale, younger firms. Analysis of all corporate establishment restaurant units opened in 1986 or 1987 that use paid employees in 1987 helps to reconcile the seeming inconsistencies reported above. Most of the young franchisee units were not owned by young firms: rather, their parents were multi-establishment franchisees, and most of them were mature firms. Among the true newcomers, franchise survival rates are low; among the entrenched multi-establishment franchisees, survival rates were high.
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Credit Market Competition and the Nature of Firms
April 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-07
Empirical studies show that competition in the credit markets has important effects on the entry and growth of firms in nonfinancial industries. This paper explores the hypothesis that the availability of credit at the time of a firm's founding has a profound effect on that firm's nature. I conjecture that in times when financial capital is difficult to obtain, firms will need to be built as relatively solid organizations. However, in an environment of easily available financial capital, firms can be constituted with an intrinsically weaker structure. To test this conjecture, I use confidential data from the U.S. Census Bureau on the entire universe of business establishments in existence over a thirty-year period; I follow the life cycles of those same establishments through a period of regulatory reform during which U.S. states were allowed to remove barriers to entry in the banking industry, a development that resulted in significantly improved credit competition. The evidence confirms my conjecture. Firms constituted in post-reform years are intrinsically frailer than those founded in a more financially constrained environment, while firms of pre-reform vintage do not seem to adapt their nature to an easier credit environment. Credit market competition does lead to more entry and growth of firms, but also to complex dynamics experienced by the population of business organizations.
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How Collateral Affects Small Business Lending: The Role of Lender Specialization
August 2021
Working Paper Number:
CES-21-22
I study the role of collateral on small business credit access in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. I construct a novel, loan-level dataset covering all collateralized small business lending in Texas from 2002-2016 and link it to the U.S. Census of Establishments. Using textual analysis, I show that post-2008, lenders reduced credit supply to borrowers outside of the lender's collateral specialization. This result holds when comparing lending to the same borrower from different lenders, and when comparing lending by the same lender to different borrowers. A one standard deviation higher specialization in collateral increases lending to the same firm by 3.7%. Abstracting from general equilibrium effects, if firms switched to lenders with the highest specialization in their collateral, aggregate lending would increase by 14.8%. Furthermore, firms borrowing from lenders with greater specialization in the borrower's collateral see a larger growth in employment after 2008. Finally, I show that firms with collateral more frequently accepted by lenders in the economy find it easier to switch lenders. In sum, my paper shows that borrowing from specialized lenders increases access to credit and employment during a financial crisis.
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Survival Patterns Among Newcomers To Franchising
May 1997
Working Paper Number:
CES-97-05
This study analyzes survival patterns among franchisee firms adn establishments that began operations in 1986 and 1987. Differing methodologies and data bases are utilized to demonstrate that 1) franchises have higher survival rates than independents, and 2) franchises have lower survival rates than independent business formations. Analyses of corporate establishment data generate high franchisee survival rates relative to independents, while analyses of young firm data generate the opposite pattern. In either case, the franchise trait is one of several determinants of survival prospects. The larger-scale, more established firms consistently stay in operation more frequently than smaller-scale, younger firms. Analysis of all corporate establishment restaurant units opened in 1986 or 1987 that use paid employees in 1987 helps to reconcile the seeming inconsistencies reported above. Most of the young franchisee units were not owned by young firms: rather, their parents were multi-establishment franchisees, and most of them were mature firms. Among the true newcomers, franchise survival rates are low; among the entrenched multi-establishment franchisees, survival rates were high.
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Pollution Havens and the Trade in Toxic Chemicals: Evidence from U.S. Trade Flows
June 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-12
Does increased environmental protection decrease the emission of pollutants or merely displace them? Using newly available trade data, this study examines the flows of a panel of chemicals designated as toxic by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Toxics Release Inventory (TRI). Estimates from a differences-in-differences model indicate a significant increase in net imports when a chemical is listed on TRI, which suggests production offshoring. Furthermore, I find that increased imports due to this 'pollution haven effect' are sourced disproportionately from poorer countries, which are likely to have lower environmental protection standards. At the same time, I observe the bulk of American trade in toxic chemicals occurs with other wealthy countries, which may be attributed to the capital intensity of chemical production.
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Patents, Innovation, and Market Entry
September 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-45
Do patents facilitate market entry and job creation? Using a 2014 Supreme Court decision that limited patent eligibility and natural language processing methods to identify invalid patents, I find that large treated firms reduce job creation and create fewer new establishments in response, with no effect on new firm entry. Moreover, companies shift toward innovation aimed at improving existing products consistent with the view that patents incentivize creative destruction.
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