We test whether two-earner married couples are more likely to file for consumer bankruptcy in the future than similar married couples. Since two-earner households are unable to adjust their income on the extensive margin, they are more vulnerable to income shocks, and thus at risk of bankruptcy in the future. We find that two-earner married couples in 1999 are more likely to file for bankruptcy from 2002-2004 compared to other married couples. Additionally, we present supporting information that suggests that two-earner households have a higher average propensity to consume.
    
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        Who Files for Personal Bankruptcy in the United States?
        
        January 2017
        
        
            
                Working Paper Number:
            CES-17-54
        
        
            
            Who files for bankruptcy in the United States is not well understood. Previous research relied on small samples from national surveys or a small number of states from administrative records. I use over 10 million administrative bankruptcy records linked to the 2000 Decennial Census and the 2001-2009 American Community Surveys to understand who files for personal bankruptcy. Bankruptcy filers are middle income, more likely to be divorced, more likely to be black, more likely to have terminal high school degree or some college, and more likely to be middle-aged. Bankruptcy filers are more likely to be employed than the U.S. as a whole, and they are more likely to be employed 50-52 weeks. The bankruptcy population is aging faster than the U.S. population as a whole. Lastly, using the pseudo-panels I study what happens in the years around bankruptcy. Individuals are likely to get divorced in the years before bankruptcy and then remarry. Income falls before bankruptcy and then rises after bankruptcy.
        
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        Social Influence and the Consumer Bankruptcy Decision
        
        January 2017
        
        
            
                Working Paper Number:
            CES-17-60
        
        
            
            I examine the influence of neighbors on the consumer bankruptcy decision using administrative bankruptcy records linked the 2000 Decennial Census. Two empirical strategies remove unobserved common factors that affect identification. The first strategy uses small geographical areas to isolate neighborhood effects, and the second strategy identifies the effect using past bankruptcy filers who moved states. The findings from
 both strategies reinforce each other and confirm the role of social influence on the bankruptcy decision. Having a past bankruptcy filer move into the block from a different state increases the likelihood of filing by 10 percent.
        
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        Divorce, Family Arrangements, and Children's Adult Outcomes
        
        May 2025
        
        
            
                Working Paper Number:
            CES-25-28
        
        
            
            Nearly a third of American children experience parental divorce before adulthood. To understand its consequences, we use linked tax and Census records for over 5 million children to examine how divorce affects family arrangements and children's long-term outcomes. Following divorce, parents move apart, household income falls, parents work longer hours, families move more frequently, and households relocate to poorer neighborhoods with less economic opportunity. This bundle of changes in family circumstances suggests multiple channels through which divorce may affect children's development and outcomes. In the years following divorce, we observe sharp increases in teen births and child mortality. To examine long-run effects on children, we compare siblings with different lengths of exposure to the same divorce. We find that parental divorce reduces children's adult earnings and college residence while increasing incarceration, mortality, and teen births. Changes in household income, neighborhood quality, and parent proximity account for 25 to 60 percent of these divorce effects.
        
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        When It Rains It Pours: Under What Circumstances Does Job Loss Lead to Divorce
        
        December 2013
        
        
            
                Working Paper Number:
            CES-13-62
        
        
            
            Much of the previous research that has examined the effect of job loss on the probability of divorce rely on data from the 1970s-80s, a period of dramatic change in marital formation and dissolution.  It is unclear how well this research pertains to more recent trends in marriage, divorce, and female labor force participation.  This study uses data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) from 2000 to 2012 (thus including effects of the Great Recession) to examine how displacement (i.e., exogenous job loss) affects the probability of divorce.  The author finds clear evidence that the effects of displacement appear to be asymmetric depending upon the gender of the job loser.  Specifically, displacement significantly increases the probability of divorce but only if the husband is the spouse that is displaced and his earnings represented approximately half of the household's earnings prior to displacement.  Similarly, results show that the probability of divorce increases if the wife is employed and as her earnings increase.  While the mechanism behind these asymmetric results remains unclear, these results are consistent with recent research that finds a destabilizing effect on marriages when a wife earns more than her husband.
        
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        Self-Employment Income Reporting on Surveys
        
        April 2023
        
        
            
                Working Paper Number:
            CES-23-19
        
        
            
            We examine the relation between administrative income data and survey reports for self-employed and wage-earning respondents from 2000 - 2015. The self-employed report 40 percent more wages and self-employment income in the survey than in tax administrative records; this estimate nets out differences between these two sources that are also shared by wage-earners. We provide evidence that differential reporting incentives are an important explanation of the larger self-employed gap by exploiting a well-known artifact ' self-employed respondents exhibit substantial bunching at the
 first EITC kink in their administrative records. We do not observe the same behavior in their survey responses even after accounting for survey measurement concerns.
        
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        HUMAN CAPITAL LOSS IN CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
        
        July 2013
        
        
            
                Working Paper Number:
            CES-13-37
        
        
            
            This paper quantifies the 'human costs of bankruptcy' by estimating employee wage losses induced by the bankruptcy filing of employers using employee-employer matched data from the U.S. Census Bureau's LEHD program. We find that employee wages begin to deteriorate one year prior to bankruptcy. One year after bankruptcy, the magnitude of the decline in annual wages is 30% of pre-bankruptcy wages. The decrease in wages persists (at least) for five years post-bankruptcy. The present value of wage losses summed up to five years after bankruptcy amounts to 29-49% of the average pre-bankruptcy market value of firm. Furthermore, we find that the ex-ante wage premium to compensate for the ex-post wage loss due to bankruptcy can be of similar magnitude with that of the tax benefits of debt.
        
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        Neighborhood Income and Material Hardship in the United States
        
        January 2022
        
        
            
                Working Paper Number:
            CES-22-01
        
        
            
            U.S. households face a number of economic challenges that affect their well-being. In this analysis we focus on the extent to which neighborhood economic conditions contribute to hardship. Specifically, using data from the 2008 and 2014 Survey of Income and Program Participation panel surveys and logistic regression, we analyze the extent to which neighborhoods income levels affect the likelihood of experiencing seven types of hardships, including trouble paying bills, medical need, food insecurity, housing hardship, ownership of basic consumer durables, neighborhood problems, and fear of crime. We find strong bivariate relationships between neighborhood income and all hardships, but for most hardships these are explained by other household characteristics, such as household income and education. However, neighborhood income retains a strong association with two hardships in particular even when controlling for a variety of other household characteristics: neighborhood conditions (such as the presence of trash and litter) and fear of crime. Our study highlights the importance of examining multiple measures when assessing well-being, and our findings are consistent with the notion that collective socialization and community-level structural features affect the likelihood that households experience deleterious neighborhood conditions and a fear of crime.
        
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        An Analysis of Sample Selection and the Reliability of Using Short-term Earnings Averages in SIPP-SSA Matched Data
        
        December 2011
        
        
            
                Working Paper Number:
            CES-11-39
        
        
            
            In this paper, we document the extent to which the sample of the Survey of Income and Program Participation that is matched to the Social Security Administration's administrative earnings records is nationally representative. We conclude that the match bias is small, so selection is not a serious concern. The matched sample over-represents individuals who are wealthy, who have financial assets or who have received a government-transfer and under-represents individuals who attrited from the SIPP. We use this matched sample to examine the relationship between short-term averages of earnings from the SIPP earnings and average lifetime earnings from the administrative records. Our estimates suggest that using short averages of earnings may understate the effects of permanent income on particular outcomes of interest.
        
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        The Winner's Curse of Human Capital
        
        February 1999
        
        
            
                Working Paper Number:
            CES-99-05
        
        
            
            We extend a model developed by Evans) to explain when start-ups are credit constrained. We show that the magnitude of the credit constraint is conditioned by the relative productivity of human capital in both wage work and self employment. Empirical analysis reveals that entrepreneurs with greater levels of human capital and entrepreneurial abilities have both greater financial wealth and greater levels of start-up capital pointing to the endogenous nature of credit constraints. Start-ups are generally financially constrained when measured by the impact on start-up capital of predicted household income. Greater levels of human capital relaxes financial constraints, apparently due to greater productivity of human capital in wage work than in self-employment. Paradoxically, then, those who are the least likely to be credit constrained in self-employment are those that are least likely to switch into self-employment, and vice versa.
        
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        Same-Sex and Opposite-Sex Couples and the Child Penalty
        
        May 2023
        
        
            
                Working Paper Number:
            CES-23-25R
        
        
            
            Existing work has shown that the entry of a child into a household results in a large and sustained increase in the earnings gap between male and female partners in opposite-sex couples. We expand this analysis of the child penalty to examine within-couple dynamics in earnings for both opposite-sex and same-sex couples in the U.S. around the time their first child enters the household. Using linked survey and administrative data and event-study methodology, we confirm earlier work finding a child penalty for women in opposite-sex couples. We find this is true even when the female partner is the primary earner pre-parenthood, lending support to the importance of gender norms in opposite-sex couples. By contrast, in both female and male same-sex couples, earnings changes associated with child entry differ by the relative pre-parenthood earnings of the partners and tend towards equalization: secondary earners see an increase in earnings, while primary earners see a small decrease.
        
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