This report seeks to evaluate selective migration processes of Hispanic and Asian nationality groups in the US from established settlement areas, using recent migration data from the American Community Survey. The underlying goal is to detect migration tendencies leading toward an increased dispersion of these groups associated with their migration processes. Using descriptive statistics, maps, and migration models, we assess how migration processes in the 2006-8 period are leading to the dispersal of Hispanic and Asian race ethnic groups across metropolitan areas, with special attention to the roles of co-ethnic communities and spatial assimilation. These analyses employ migration data available from the 3-year 2006-8 American Community Survey using restricted data from the US Census Bureau's Research Data Centers. This use of the restricted ACS files permitted the first post 2000 analysis of inter-metropolitan migration for Hispanic groups (Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, Salvadorans, Dominicans) and Asian groups (Chinese, Indians, Filipinos, Vietnamese, Koreans) using the detailed demographic and geographic attributes available with these files. The data and analysis presented here provide a benchmark for further research of this kind with the American Community Survey in light of the fact that migration data will no longer be available from the US decennial census. The study examines migration from these groups' major settlement areas to other metropolitan area destinations as they are affected by the attraction of co-ethnic communities and by a migrant selectivity pattern consistent with the perspective of spatial assimilation. The migration processes themselves were evaluated in terms of two components: the out--migration rates of residents, and the destination selection of movers. From the perspective of co-ethnic community attraction, it was hypothesized that the outmigration rates from high co-ethnic settlement areas would be lower than those from areas where the group had a smaller overall presence and that the destination selections of out-migrants would be positively affected by the presence of high co-ethnic population shares in destination areas. From the spatial assimilation perspective, it was hypothesized that out-migration from high coethnic areas would least likely occur for group members with lowest education, poor facility with English, and recently arrived in the US; whereas the selection of destinations with large coethnic population shares would be most likely to occur for these same population categories. The results strongly confirm that co-ethnic community attraction continues to reduce outmigration of groups from major settlement origins and positively influences their destination selections. A series of multivariate migrant destination selection models confirm a consistent draw of ethnically similar destinations across individual Hispanic and Asian groups when other economic, demographic and structural metropolitan attributes are taken into account. In contrast, results regarding spatial assimilation are typically mixed or nonexistent in characterizing both out-migration and mover destination selectivity patterns. In fact, we find contrary evidence for some Asian groups for whom it is the most educated, and native born migrants who show a penchant for selecting destinations with greater co-ethnic population shares. Among the greatest destinations for Indians, for example, are Philadelphia, Seattle, Dallas, Boston and Atlanta- areas with higher than average Indian population shares, and areas that also house knowledge-based industries. The selection of co-ethnic destinations among Hispanic group migrants appears somewhat impervious to education attainment and Hispanic and Mexican group movers, who are foreign born and who arrived since 2000, are least, rather than most, prone to select co-ethnic destinations. The mover destination models make plain that employment growth at destination provides a strong draw for all Hispanic groups. This suggests that recent growth in low skilled jobs in parts of the country with small Hispanic populations are nonetheless attracting newly arrived, and less skilled Mexicans and other Hispanics who might have previously been especially lured to destinations with large co-ethnic population shares.
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Foreign-Born Out-Migration from New Destinations: The Effects of Economic Conditions and Nativity Concentration
April 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-09
Immigrants living in new destinations in 1995 were 2.5 times more likely to undertake a labor market migration by 2000 as those living in traditional places. This paper looks at two competing explanations for immigrants' differential secondary migration, namely nativity concentration versus labor market context. Utilizing confidential Census data for 1990 and 2000, we examine out-migration from 741 labor markets that cover the entire country and develop new destination classifications specific to the growth and composition patterns of foreign-born from the largest Asian, Latin American and Caribbean foreign-born groups, and Canadians. The hypothesis guiding the analysis was that immigrants would be less likely to leave labor markets that have both robust economic conditions and high levels of compatriot affinity as measured by nativity concentration. The combined and group models provide strong support for the argument that immigrant's out-migration decisions respond both to local labor market economic conditions and compatriot availability, net of human capital and national origin.
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WHY IMMIGRANTS LEAVE NEW DESTINATIONS AND WHERE DO THEY GO?
June 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-32
Immigrants have a markedly higher likelihood of migrating internally if they live in new estinations. This paper looks at why that pattern occurs and at how immigrants' out-migration to new versus traditional destinations responds to their labor market economic and industrial structure, nativity origins and concentration, geographic region, and 1995 labor market type. Confidential data from the 2000 and 1990 decennial censuses are used for the analysis. Metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas are categorized into 741 local labor markets and classified as new or traditional based on their nativity concentrations of immigrants from the largest Asian, Caribbean and Latin American origins. The analysis showed that immigrants were less likely to migrate to new destinations if they lived in areas of higher nativity concentration, foreign-born population growth, and wages but more likely to make that move if they were professionals, agricultural or blue collar workers, highly educated, fluent in English, and lived in other new destinations. While most immigrants are more likely to migrate to new rather than traditional destinations that outcome differs sharply for immigrants from different origins and for some immigrants, particularly those from the Caribbean, the dispersal process to new destinations has barely started.
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Assimilation and Coverage of the
Foreign-Born Population in Administrative Records
April 2015
Working Paper Number:
carra-2015-02
The U.S. Census Bureau is researching ways to incorporate administrative data in decennial census and survey operations. Critical to this work is an understanding of the coverage of the population by administrative records. Using federal and third party administrative data linked to the American Community Survey (ACS), we evaluate the extent to which administrative records provide data on foreign-born individuals in the ACS and employ multinomial logistic regression techniques to evaluate characteristics of those who are in administrative records relative to those who are not. We find that overall, administrative records provide high coverage of foreign-born individuals in our sample for whom a match can be determined. The odds of being in administrative records are found to be tied to the processes of immigrant assimilation - naturalization, higher English proficiency, educational attainment, and full-time employment are associated with greater odds of being in administrative records. These findings suggest that as immigrants adapt and integrate into U.S. society, they are more likely to be involved in government and commercial processes and programs for which we are including data. We further explore administrative records coverage for the two largest race/ethnic groups in our sample - Hispanic and non-Hispanic single-race Asian foreign born, finding again that characteristics related to assimilation are associated with administrative records coverage for both groups. However, we observe that neighborhood context impacts Hispanics and Asians differently.
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Choices of Metropolitan Destinations by the 1995-2000 New Immigrants Born in Mexico and India: Characterization and Multivariate Explanation
September 2008
Working Paper Number:
CES-08-27
Using the confidential long-form records of the 2000 population census, we study the choices of metropolitan destinations made by the Mexican-born and Indian-born immigrants who arrived in the United States in 1995-2000. Based on the application of a multinomial logit model to the data of each of these two ethnic groups, our main findings are as follows. The destination choice behaviors of both ethnic groups were in general consistent with the major theories of migration. Both groups were subject to (1) the attraction of co-ethnic communities and (2) the positive effects of wage level and total employment growth. With respect to the job increases in different wage deciles, both ethnic groups share the pattern that the less educated were subject to the pull of increase in low-wage jobs, whereas the better educated were subject to the pull of increase in high-wage jobs. With respect to the possibility of competitions against other foreignborn ethnics, both ethnic groups were found to be more prone to selecting destinations where their co-ethnics represented a relatively high proportion of the foreign-born population. The main differences in destination choice behaviors between the two ethnic groups resulted partly from the fact that the relative explanatory powers of our chosen explanatory factors differed substantially between the two ethnic groups. The Mexican-born were more subject to the attractions of (1) larger co-ethnic communities, (2) greater overall employment growth, (3) more job increases in low wage deciles, and (4) greater share of the foreign-born population by coethnics. In contrast, the Indian-born were more attracted by (1) higher wage level, and (2) more job increases in high wage deciles.
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Urban-Suburban Migration in the United States, 1955-2000
February 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-08
This study uses census microdata from 1960 to 2010 to look at the rates of suburbanization in the 100 largest metro areas. Looking at the racial and ethnic composition of the population, and then further breaking down these groups by income, it's clear that more affluent people were more likely to move to the suburbs. Also, the White non-Hispanic population has long been the most suburbanized group. A majority of the White population lived in suburbs by 1960 in the 100 largest metro areas, while most of the Black non-Hispanic population lived in urban core areas as late as 2000. The Hispanic and Asian populations went from majority urban to majority suburban during this period.
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A Warm Embrace or the Cold Shoulder: Wage and Employment Outcomes in Ethnic Enclaves
April 2008
Working Paper Number:
CES-08-09
This paper examines how immigrant enclaves influence labor market outcomes. We examine the effect of ethnic concentration on both immigrant earnings and employment in high immigration states using the non-public use, 1-in-6 sample of the 2000 U.S. Census. Although we find that there is some variability in the estimated enclave effects, they exhibit an overall negative impact. Male and female immigrants from several ethnic groups tend to earn lower wages when residing in areas with larger ethnic concentrations. Similarly, for employment, most of the statistically significant effects are negative, although much smaller than the enclave impacts on earnings.
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Is the Melting Pot Still Hot? Explaining the Resurgence of Immigrant Segregation
August 2004
Working Paper Number:
CES-04-10
This paper uses decennial Census data to examine trends in immigrant segregation in the United States between 1910 and 2000. Immigrant segregation declined in the first half of the century, but has been rising steadily over the past three decades. Analysis of restricted access 1990 Census microdata suggests that this rise would be even more striking if the native-born children of immigrants could be consistently excluded from the analysis. We analyze panel and cross-sectional variation in immigrant segregation, as well as housing price patterns across metropolitan areas, to test four hypotheses of immigrant segregation. Immigration itself has surged in recent decades, but the tendency for newly arrived immigrants to be younger and of lower socioeconomic status explains very little of the recent rise in immigrant segregation. We also find no evidence of increased nativism in the housing market. Evidence instead points to changes in urban form, particularly the tendency for ethnic enclaves to form as suburbanizing households leave older neighborhoods, as a central explanation for the new immigrant segregation.
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Metropolitan Segregation: No Breakthrough in Sight
May 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-14
The 2020 Census offers new information on changes in residential segregation in metropolitan regions across the country as they continue to become more diverse. We take a long view, assessing trends since 1980 and extrapolating to the future. These new data mostly reinforce patterns that were observed a decade ago: high but slowly declining black-white segregation, and less intense but hardly changing segregation of Hispanics and Asians from whites. Enough time has passed since the civil rights era of the 1960s and 1970s to draw this conclusion: segregation will continue to divide Americans well into the 21st Century.
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Stability and Change in Individual Determinants of Migration: Evidence from 1985-1990 and 1995 to 2000
November 2006
Working Paper Number:
CES-06-27
In this paper, we compare the reliability of migration estimates from two rather different macroeconomic periods in recent U.S. history. One of these periods, 1985-1990 coincides with the culmination of a vast industrial restructuring which saw a significant decline in manufacturing employment. The other period, 1995-2000, encompasses a time of robust economic growth and tight labor markets driven by productivity gains associated with new technologies. Our interest here is in the stability of common individual-level predictors of migration in these rather disparate macroeconomic contexts. Using confidential internal versions of the 1990 and 2000 Census long-form data, we estimate logistic models of the likelihood that individuals will migrate. The geographic detail in the internal Census data permits us to measure migration in ways that are not possible with public-domain Census data on persons. We develop migration definitions that distinguish between local residential mobility likely associated with life course transitions from migration out of the labor market area that may be driven more by employment and other socioeconomic considerations. Using logistic modeling, we find that the same individual attributes predict migration reasonably well during both periods. We also compute some illustrative probabilities of migration that show temporal stability in migration predictors could be lessened by certain changes in population composition.
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Using Linked Data to Investigate True Intergenerational Change: Three Generations Over Seven Decades
August 2018
Working Paper Number:
carra-2018-09
It is widely thought that immigrants and their families undergo profound cultural and socioeconomic changes as a consequence of coming into contact with U.S. society, but the way this occurs remains unclear and controversial due in large part to data limitations. In this paper, we provide proof of concept for analyses using linked data that allow us to compare outcomes across more 'exact' family generations. Specifically, we are able to follow immigrant parents and their children and grandchildren across seven decades using census and survey data from 1940 to 2014. We describe the data and linkage methodology, evaluate the representativeness of the linked sample, test a method for adjusting for biases that arise from non-representative linkages, and describe the size, diversity, and socioeconomic characteristics of the linked sample. We demonstrate that large sample sizes of linked data will likely permit us to compare several national origin groups across multiple generations.
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