This paper evaluates firm profitability in the highly competitive restaurant industry by comparing variation in firm size and production decisions with variation in market size. In the Census microdata, I find that multi-unit firms operate a greater number of restaurants and larger individual restaurants in larger MSAs. They also increase production intensity by increasing production during operating hours, extending operating hours, increasing the volume of meals and non-meals output. These results are generally consistent with full capacity exploitation in efficient firms, rather than underutilization by firms seeking to limit rivalry through excess capacity or product proliferation.
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Residual Claims and Incentives in Restaurant Chains
July 2006
Working Paper Number:
CES-06-18
I examine the relationship between ownership and production activities using a new dataset of restaurant chains. Production in restaurant chains provides an opportunity to examine the effects of residual claims on incentives because production is decentralized and fairly uniform across restaurants in the same chain. Yet the allocation of residual claims varies between company-owned and franchised units, affecting the strength of incentives for restaurantlevel activities. The decision to own or franchise each restaurant reflects the value of either withholding or allocating residual claims for performing these activities. I find that more complex production activities are systematically correlated with company ownership. Onsite food production raises the likelihood of company ownership by 28% relative to offsite food production. Table service raises the likelihood of company ownership by 26% relative to counter service. The results are not consistent with straightforward effort-promoting effects of residual claims in simple principal agent models. They are consistent with the view that residual claims can generate unbalanced incentives across diverse tasks.
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The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Childcare Establishments
August 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-53
Childcare is essential for working families, yet it remains increasingly unaffordable and inaccessible for parents and offers poverty-level wages to many employees. While research suggests minimum wage policies may improve the welfare of low-wage workers, there is also evidence they may increase firm exits, especially among smaller, low-profit firms, which could reduce access and harm consumer well-being. This study is the first to examine these trade-offs in the childcare industry, a labor-intensive, highly regulated sector where capital-labor substitution is limited, and to provide evidence on how minimum wage policies affect a dual-sector labor market in the U.S., where self-employed and waged providers serve overlapping markets. Using variation from state-level minimum wage increases between 1995 and 2019 and unique microdata, I implement a cross-state county border discontinuity design to estimate impacts on the stocks, flows, and composition of childcare establishments. I find that while county-level aggregate establishment stocks and employment remained stable, establishment-level turnover increased, and employment decreased. I reconcile these findings by showing that minimum wage increases prompted reallocation, with larger establishments in the waged-sector more likely to enter and less likely to exit, making this one of the first studies to link null aggregate effects to shifts in establishment composition. Finally, I show that minimum wage increases may negatively affect the self-employed sector, resulting in fewer owners with advanced degrees and more with only high school education. These findings suggest that minimum wage policies reshape who provides care in ways that could affect both quality and access.
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The Role of Retail Chains: National, Regional, and Industry Results
December 2005
Working Paper Number:
CES-05-30
We use the establishment level data in the Longitudinal Business Database to measure changes in market structure in the U.S. Retail Trade sector during the period, 1976 to 2000. We use firm ownership information to construct measures of firm entry and exit and also to categorize four types of retail firms: single location, and local, regional, and national chains. We use detailed location data to examine market structure in both national and county markets. We summarize the county level results into three groups: metropolitan, micropolitan, and rural. We find that retail activity is increasingly occurring at establishments owned by chain firms, especially large national chains. On average, we find that all types of retail firms are increasing in size during the period. We also find that larger markets experience more firm turnover. Finally, we see that entry and exit rates vary across two-digit retail industries.
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Mom-and-Pop Meet Big-Box: Complements or Substitutes?
September 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-34
In part due to the popular perception that Big-Boxes displace smaller, often family owned (a.k.a. Mom-and-Pop) retail establishments, several empirical studies have examined the evidence on how Big-Boxes' impact local retail employment but no clear consensus has emerged. To help shed light on this debate, we exploit establishment-level data with detailed location information from a single metropolitan area to quantify the impact of Big-Box store entry and growth on nearby single unit and local chain stores. We incorporate a rich set of controls for local retail market conditions as well as whether or not the Big-Boxes are in the same sector as the smaller stores. We find a substantial negative impact of Big-Box entry and growth on the employment growth at both single unit and especially smaller chain stores ' but only when the Big-Box activity is both in the immediate area and in the same detailed industry.
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The Impact of Minimum Quality Standards on Firm Entry, Exit and Product Quality: The Case of the Child Care Market
December 2005
Working Paper Number:
CES-05-28
We examine the impact of minimum quality standards on the supply side of the child care market, using a unique panel data set merged from the Census of Services Industries, state regulation data, and administrative accreditation records from the National Association of Education for Young Children. We control for state-specific and time-specific fixed effects in order to mitigate the biases associated with policy endogeneity. We find that the effects of quality standards specifying the labor intensiveness of child care services are strikingly different from those specifying staff qualifications. Higher staff-child ratio requirements deter entry and reduce the number of operating child care establishments. This entry barrier appears to select establishments with better quality into the market and alleviates competition among existing establishments: existing establishments are more likely to receive accreditation and higher profits, and are less likely to exit. By contrast, higher staff-education requirements do not have entry-deterrence effects. They do have the unintended effects of discouraging accreditation, reducing owners' profits, and driving firms out of businesses.
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Costs, Demand, and Imperfect Competition as Determinants of Plant_level Output Prices
June 1992
Working Paper Number:
CES-92-05
The empirical modeling of imperfectly competitive markets has been constrained by the difficulty of obtaining micro data on individual producer prices, outputs, and costs. In this paper we utilize micro data collected from the 1977 Census of Manufactures to study the determinants of plant-level output prices among U.S. bread producers. A theoretical model of short-run price competition among plants producing differentiated products is used to specify reduced-form equations for each plant's price and output. Estimates of the reduced-form equations indicate that the main determinants of both the plant's output level and output price are the plant's own cost variables, particularly its capital stock and the prices of material inputs. The number of rival producers faced by the plant, the production costs of these rivals, and the demand conditions faced by the plant play no role in price or output determination. The results are not consistent with either oligopolistic competition or monopoly behavior, but rather are consistent with price-taking behavior by individual producers combined with output quality differentials across producers.
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Firms Started As Franchises Have Lower Survival Rates Than Independent Small Business Startups
May 1994
Working Paper Number:
CES-94-03
Aspiring entrepreneurs choosing to become franchisees certainly expect to improve their chances of survival during the turbulent early years of business startup and operation. Alignment with a franchiser parent company offers the franchisee managerial assistance, access to financial capital, and access to markets via the right to utilize the parent company trademark. This study examines survival patterns among franchise and nonfranchise small firms started between 1984 and 1987: survival through late 1991 is tracked for all firms. Although the franchise operations are larger scale, better capitalized young firms, the independent business startups are found to be more profitable and their survival prospects are better than those of franchises.
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Entry, Exit, and the Determinants of Market Structure
September 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-23
Market structure is determined by the entry and exit decisions of individual producers. These decisions are driven by expectations of future profits which, in turn, depend on the nature of competition within the market. In this paper we estimate a dynamic, structural model of entry and exit in an oligopolistic industry and use it to quantify the determinants of market structure and long-run firm values for two U.S. service industries, dentists and chiropractors. We find that entry costs faced by potential entrants, fixed costs faced by incumbent producers, and the toughness of short-run price competition are all important determinants of long run firm values and market structure. As the number of firms in the market increases, the value of continuing in the market and the value of entering the market both decline, the probability of exit rises, and the probability of entry declines. The magnitude of these effects differ substantially across markets due to differences in exogenous cost and demand factors and across the dentist and chiropractor industries. Simulations using the estimated model for the dentist industry show that pressure from both potential entrants and incumbent firms discipline long-run profits. We calculate that a seven percent reduction in the mean sunk entry cost would reduce a monopolist's long-run profits by the same amount as if the firm operated in a duopoly.
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Survival Patterns Among Newcomers To Franchising
May 1997
Working Paper Number:
CES-97-05
This study analyzes survival patterns among franchisee firms adn establishments that began operations in 1986 and 1987. Differing methodologies and data bases are utilized to demonstrate that 1) franchises have higher survival rates than independents, and 2) franchises have lower survival rates than independent business formations. Analyses of corporate establishment data generate high franchisee survival rates relative to independents, while analyses of young firm data generate the opposite pattern. In either case, the franchise trait is one of several determinants of survival prospects. The larger-scale, more established firms consistently stay in operation more frequently than smaller-scale, younger firms. Analysis of all corporate establishment restaurant units opened in 1986 or 1987 that use paid employees in 1987 helps to reconcile the seeming inconsistencies reported above. Most of the young franchisee units were not owned by young firms: rather, their parents were multi-establishment franchisees, and most of them were mature firms. Among the true newcomers, franchise survival rates are low; among the entrenched multi-establishment franchisees, survival rates were high.
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THE AGGREGATE IMPACT OF ONLINE RETAIL
April 2014
Working Paper Number:
CES-14-23
To study the impact of online retail on aggregate welfare, I use a spatial model to calculate a new measure of store level retail productivity and each store's equilibrium response to increased competitive pressure from online retailers. The model is estimated on confidential store-level data spanning the universe of US retail stores, detailed local-level demographic data and shortest-route data between locations. From counterfactual exercises mimicking improvements in shipping and increased internet access, I estimate that improvements in online retail increased aggregate welfare from retail activities by 13.4 per cent. Roughly two-thirds of the increase can be attributed to welfare improvements holding fixed market shares, with the remainder due to reallocation. Surprisingly, 8.2 percent of firms actually benefit as they absorb market share from closed stores. Finally, I estimate that the proposed Marketplace Fairness Act would claw back roughly one-third of sales that would otherwise have gone to online retailers between 2007-12.
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