This document describes the analysis of the SIPP-SSN match quality, and the file resulting for that analysis as distributable to the Census RDCs.
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The Measurement of Medicaid Coverage in the SIPP: Evidence from California, 1990-1996
September 2002
Working Paper Number:
CES-02-21
This paper studies the accuracy of reported Medicaid coverage in the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) using a unique data set formed by matching SIPP survey responses to administrative records from the State of California. Overall, we estimate that the SIPP underestimates Medicaid coverage in the California populaton by about 10 percent. Among SIPP respondents who can be matched to administrative records, we estimate that the probability someone reports Medicaid coverage in a month when they are actually covered is around 85 percent. The corresponding probability for low-income children is even higher ' at least 90 percent. These estimates suggest that the SIPP provides reasonably accurate coverage reports for those who are actually in the Medicaid system. On the other hand, our estimate of the false positive rate (the rate of reported coverage for those who are not covered in the administrative records) is relatively high: 2.5 percent for the sample as a whole, and up to 20 percent for poor children. Some of this is due to errors in the recording of Social Security numbers in the administrative system, rather than to problems in the SIPP.
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The EITC over the business cycle: Who benefits?
December 2014
Working Paper Number:
carra-2014-15
In this paper, I examine the impact of the Great Recession on Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) eligibility. Because the EITC is structurally tied to earnings, the direction of this impact is not immediately obvious. Families who experience complete job loss for an entire tax year lose eligibility, while those experiencing underemployment (part-year employment, a reduction in hours, or spousal unemployment in married households) may become eligible. Determining the direction and magnitude of the impact is important for a number of reasons. The EITC has become the largest cash-transfer program in the U.S., and many low-earning families rely on it as a means of support in tough times. The program has largely been viewed as a replacement for welfare, enticing former welfare recipients into the labor force. However, the effectiveness of the EITC during a period of very high unemployment has not been assessed. To answer these questions, I first use the Current Population Survey (CPS) matched to Internal Revenue Service data from tax years 2005 to 2010 to assess patterns of employment and eligibility over the Great Recession for different labor-force groups. Results indicate that overall, EITC eligibility increased over the recession, but only among groups that were cushioned from total household earnings loss by marriage. I also use the 2006 CPS matched to tax data from 2005 through 2011 to examine changes in eligibility experienced by individuals over time. In assessing three competing causes of eligibility loss, I find that less-educated, unmarried women experienced a greater hazard of eligibility loss due a yearlong lack of earnings compared with other labor-market groups. I discuss the implications of these findings on the view of the EITC as a safety-net program.
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Estimating Measurement Error in SIPP Annual Job Earnings: A Comparison of Census Survey and SSA Administrative Data
September 2002
Working Paper Number:
tp-2002-24
The third chapter investigates measurement error in SIPP annual job
earnings data linked to SSA administrative earnings data. The multiple
earnings measures provided by the survey and administrative data enable
the identification of components of true variation and variation due to
measurement error. We find that 18% of the variation in SIPP annual job
earnings can be attributed to measurement error. We also find that in
both the SIPP and the DER, measurement error is persistent over time.
A lower level of auto-correlation in the SIPP measurement error than in
the economic error component leads to a lower reliability ratio of .62 for
first-differenced earnings.
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Comparison of Child Reporting in the American Community Survey and Federal Income Tax Returns Based on California Birth Records
September 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-55
This paper takes advantage of administrative records from California, a state with a large child population and a significant historical undercount of children in Census Bureau data, dependent information in the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Form 1040 records, and the American Community Survey to characterize undercounted children and compare child reporting. While IRS Form 1040 records offer potential utility for adjusting child undercounting in Census Bureau surveys, this analysis finds overlapping reporting issues among various demographic and economic groups. Specifically, older children, those of Non-Hispanic Black mothers and Hispanic mothers, children or parents with lower English proficiency, children whose mothers did not complete high school, and families with lower income-to-poverty ratio were less frequently reported in IRS 1040 records than other groups. Therefore, using IRS 1040 dependent records may have limitations for accurately representing populations with characteristics associated with the undercount of children in surveys.
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Citizenship Question Effects on Household Survey Response
June 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-31
Several small-sample studies have predicted that a citizenship question in the 2020 Census would cause a large drop in self-response rates. In contrast, minimal effects were found in Poehler et al.'s (2020) analysis of the 2019 Census Test randomized controlled trial (RCT). We reconcile these findings by analyzing associations between characteristics about the addresses in the 2019 Census Test and their response behavior by linking to independently constructed administrative data. We find significant heterogeneity in sensitivity to the citizenship question among households containing Hispanics, naturalized citizens, and noncitizens. Response drops the most for households containing noncitizens ineligible for a Social Security number (SSN). It falls more for households with Latin American-born immigrants than those with immigrants from other countries. Response drops less for households with U.S.-born Hispanics than households with noncitizens from Latin America. Reductions in responsiveness occur not only through lower unit self-response rates, but also by increased household roster omissions and internet break-offs. The inclusion of a citizenship question increases the undercount of households with noncitizens. Households with noncitizens also have much higher citizenship question item nonresponse rates than those only containing citizens. The use of tract-level characteristics and significant heterogeneity among Hispanics, the foreign-born, and noncitizens help explain why the effects found by Poehler et al. were so small. Linking administrative microdata with the RCT data expands what we can learn from the RCT.
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Covering Undocumented Immigrants: The Effects of a Large-Scale Prenatal Care Intervention
August 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-28
Undocumented immigrants are ineligible for public insurance coverage for prenatal care in most states, despite their children representing a large fraction of births and having U.S. citizenship. In this paper, we examine a policy that expanded Medicaid pregnancy coverage to undocumented immigrants. Using a novel dataset that links California birth records to Census surveys, we identify siblings born to immigrant mothers before and after the policy. Implementing a mothers' fixed effects design, we find that the policy increased coverage for and use of prenatal care among pregnant immigrant women, and increased average gestation length and birth weight among their children.
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Developing a Residence Candidate File for Use With Employer-Employee Matched Data
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-40
This paper describes the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program's ongoing efforts to use administrative records in a predictive model that describes residence locations for workers. This project was motivated by the discontinuation of a residence file produced elsewhere at the U.S. Census Bureau. The goal of the Residence Candidate File (RCF) process is to provide the LEHD Infrastructure Files with residence information that maintains currency with the changing state of administrative sources and represents uncertainty in location as a probability distribution. The discontinued file provided only a single residence per person/year, even when contributing administrative data may have contained multiple residences. This paper describes the motivation for the project, our methodology, the administrative data sources, the model estimation and validation results, and the file specifications. We find that the best prediction of the person-place model provides similar, but superior, accuracy compared with previous methods and performs well for workers in the LEHD jobs frame. We outline possibilities for further improvement in sources and modeling as well as recommendations on how to use the preference weights in downstream processing.
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EITC Participation Results and IRS-Census Match Methodology, Tax Year 2021
December 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-75
The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), enacted in 1975, offers a refundable tax credit to low income working families. This paper provides taxpayer and dollar participation estimates for the EITC covering tax year 2021. The estimates derive from an approach that relies on linking the 2022 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) to IRS administrative data. This approach, called the Exact Match, uses survey data to identify EITC eligible taxpayers and IRS administrative data to indicate which eligible taxpayers claimed and received the credit. Overall in tax year 2021 eligible taxpayers participated in the EITC program at a rate of 78 percent while dollar participation was 81 percent.
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Coverage of Children in the American Community Survey Based on California Birth Records
September 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-46
The U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS) collects information on individuals and households. The ACS provides survey-based estimates of children drawn from a sample of the U.S. population. However, survey responses may not match administrative records, such as birth records. Birth records should provide a complete account of all births, along with child-parent relationships and demographic characteristics. California is a state that has both a large population of children and a high undercount for young children. This paper uses California as a case study to examine differences between reported versus unreported children in the ACS based on state birth records. Child reporting rates were lower for more recent data years, younger children, for Black and Hispanic mothers, and for more complex households. Child reporting rates were higher for more educated mothers and for households above the poverty line. Using mother's race and Hispanic ethnicity from the birth records combined with poverty indices from the ACS, this analysis also finds that child reporting does not uniformly vary with poverty status across all race and ethnicity groups. This research builds support for the utility of state birth records in analyzing the undercount of children.
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The EITC and Intergenerational Mobility
November 2020
Working Paper Number:
CES-20-35
We study how the largest federal tax-based policy intended to promote work and increase incomes among the poor'the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)'affects the socioeconomic standing of children who grew up in households affected by the policy. Using the universe of tax filer records for children linked to their parents, matched with demographic and household information from the decennial Census and American Community Survey data, we exploit exogenous differences by children's ages in the births and 'aging out' of siblings to assess the effect of EITC generosity on child outcomes. We focus on assessing mobility in the child income distribution, conditional on the parents' position in the parental income distribution. Our findings suggest significant and mostly positive effects of more generous EITC refunds on the next generation that vary substantially depending on the child's household type (single-mother or married family) and by the child's gender. All children except White children from single-mother households experience increases in cohort-specific income rank, own family income, and the probability of working at ages 25'26 in response to greater EITC generosity. Children from married households show a considerably stronger response on these measures than do children from single-mother households. Because of the concentration of family types within race groups, the more positive response among children from married households suggests the EITC might lead to higher within-generation racial income inequality. Finally, we examine how the impact of EITC generosity varies by the age at which children are exposed to higher benefits. These results suggest that children who first receive the more generous two-child treatment at later ages have a stronger positive response in terms of rank and family income than children exposed at younger ages.
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