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• Working Paper

  
  
  Estimating the U.S. Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) Using Blended Survey Data, Administrative Record Data, and Modeling: Technical Report
  

  April 2023

  Authors: J. David Brown, Danielle H. Sandler, Lawrence Warren, Moises Yi, Misty L. Heggeness, Joseph L. Schafer, Matthew Spence, Marta Murray-Close, Carl Lieberman, Genevieve Denoeux, Lauren Medina

  Working Paper Number:

  CES-23-21

  This report develops a method using administrative records (AR) to fill in responses for nonresponding American Community Survey (ACS) housing units rather than adjusting survey weights to account for selection of a subset of nonresponding housing units for follow-up interviews and for nonresponse bias. The method also inserts AR and modeling in place of edits and imputations for ACS survey citizenship item nonresponses. We produce Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) tabulations using this enhanced CVAP method and compare them to published estimates. The enhanced CVAP method produces a 0.74 percentage point lower citizen share, and it is 3.05 percentage points lower for voting-age Hispanics. The latter result can be partly explained by omissions of voting-age Hispanic noncitizens with unknown legal status from ACS household responses. Weight adjustments may be less effective at addressing nonresponse bias under those conditions.
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• Working Paper

  
  
  Determination of the 2020 U.S. Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) Using Administrative Records and Statistical Methodology Technical Report
  

  October 2020

  Authors: John M. Abowd, J. David Brown, Lawrence Warren, Moises Yi, Misty L. Heggeness, William R. Bell, Michael B. Hawes, Andrew Keller, Vincent T. Mule Jr., Joseph L. Schafer, Matthew Spence

  Working Paper Number:

  CES-20-33

  This report documents the efforts of the Census Bureau's Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) Internal Expert Panel (IEP) and Technical Working Group (TWG) toward the use of multiple data sources to produce block-level statistics on the citizen voting-age population for use in enforcing the Voting Rights Act. It describes the administrative, survey, and census data sources used, and the four approaches developed for combining these data to produce CVAP estimates. It also discusses other aspects of the estimation process, including how records were linked across the multiple data sources, and the measures taken to protect the confidentiality of the data.
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