We develop a profit-maximizing neoclassical of optimal firm size and growth across different industries. The model predicts how conglomerate firms will allocate resources across divisions over the business cycle and how their responses to industry shocks will differ from those of single-segment firms. We test our model and find that growth of conglomerate and single-segment firms is related to neoclassical theory. Conglomerates grow less in a particular segment of their other segments are more productive and if their other segments experience a larger positive demand shock. We find that the growth rates of peripheral segments are very sensitive to relative productivity and that conglomerates sharply cut the growth of unproductive peripheral segments. We do find some evidence consistent with agency problems for conglomerate firms that are broken up. However, the majority of conglomerate firms exhibit growth across business segments that is consistent with optimal behavior.
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The Market for Corporate Assets: Who Engages in Mergers and Asset Sales and are there Efficiency Gains?
September 1999
Working Paper Number:
CES-99-12
We analyze the market for firms, divisions, and plants of manufacturing firms using a large sample of plant-level data for the period 1974-92. There is an active market for corporate assets, with over 7 percent of plants transacted through mergers and asset sales in expansion years in the economy. Transactions through partial firm sales represent more than half of these transactions. The probability of asset sales and full firm transactions is related to firm organization and buyer and seller ex ante productivity. We find that these transactions result in ex post productivity increases especially for asset sales from peripheral divisions of selling firms to main divisions of other buyers. Finally we find that productivity increases are significantly higher the more productive the buying firm. This timing of sales and the pattern of productivity gains suggests that the transactions that occur, especially through asset sales of plants and divisions, tend to improve the allocation of resources and are consistent with a simple neoclassic model of profit maximizing by firms. The decision to participate in the market for corporate assets and the subsequent gains realized from transactions are affected both by firm productivity and firm organization.
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Optimal Firm Size and the Growth of Conglomerate and Single-Industry Firms
October 1998
Working Paper Number:
CES-98-14
We develop a profit-maximizing neoclassical model of optimal firm size and growth across different industries based on differences in industry fundamentals and firm productivity. The model predicts how conglomerate firms will allocate resources across divisions over the business cycle and how their responses to industry shocks will differ from those of single-segment firms. We test our model and find that growth of conglomerate and single-segment firms is related to fundamental industry factors and individual firm-segment productivity suggested by our simple neoclassical theory. Conglomerates grow less in a particular segment if their other segments are more productive and if their other segments experience a larger positve demand shock. We find that the growth rates of peripheral segments are very sensitive to relative productivity an that conglomerate sharply cut the growth of unproductive peripheral segments. We do find some evidence consistent with agency problems for conglomerate firms that are broken up. However, the majority of conglomerate firms exhibit growth across business segments that is consistent with optimal behavior.
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Adjusting imperfect data: overview and case studies
November 2004
Working Paper Number:
tp-2004-05
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Clusters of Entrepreneurship
October 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-36
Employment growth is strongly predicted by smaller average establishment size, both across cities and across industries within cities, but there is little consensus on why this relationship exists. Traditional economic explanations emphasize factors that reduce entry costs or raise entrepreneurial returns, thereby increasing net returns and attracting entrepreneurs. A second class of theories hypothesizes that some places are endowed with a greater supply of entrepreneurship. Evidence on sales per worker does not support the higher returns for entrepreneurship rationale. Our evidence suggests that entrepreneurship is higher when fixed costs are lower and when there are more entrepreneurial people.
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Firm Entry and Exit in the U.S. Retail Sector, 1977-1997
October 2004
Working Paper Number:
CES-04-17
The development of longitudinal micro datasets in recent years has helped economists develop a number of stylized facts about producer dynamics. However, most of the widely cited studies use only manufacturing data. This paper uses the newly constructed Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) to examine producer dynamics in the U.S. the retail sector. The LBD is constructed by linking twenty-six years (1975-2000) of the U.S. Census Bureau's Business Register at the establishment level. The result is a dataset on the universe of employer establishments in the U.S. on an annual basis with detailed geographic, industry, firm ownership, and employment information. We use the LBD to examine patterns of firm entry and exit in the U.S. retail sector. We find that many of the patterns observed by Dunne, Roberts, and Samuelson (1988) are also observed within the retail sector, but interesting and important differences do exist.
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Measuring Productivity Dynamics with Endogenous Choice of Technology and Capacity Utilization: An Application to Automobile Assembly
December 2000
Working Paper Number:
CES-00-16
During the 1980s, all Japanese automobile producers opened assembly plants in North America. Industry analysts and previous research claim that these transplants are more productive than incumbent plants and that they produce with a substantially different production process. We compare the two production processes by estimating a model that allows for heterogeneity in technology and productivity. We treat both types of heterogeneity as intrinsically unobservable. In the model, plants choose technology before production starts. They condition subsequent input decisions on this choice. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the unconditional distribution of the technology choice, output, and inputs. The model is applied to a sample of automobile assembly plants. We control for capacity utilization, unobserved productivity differences, and price effects. The results indicate that there exist two distinct technologies. In particular, the more recent technology uses labor less intensively and it has a higher elasticity of substitution between labor and capital. Hicks-neutral productivity growth is estimated to be lower, while capital-biased (labor-saving) productivity growth is estimated significantly higher, for the new technology. Using the estimation results, we decompose industry-wide productivity growth in plant-level changes and composition effects, for both technologies separately. Plant-level productivity growth is further decomposed to reveal the importance of capital-biased productivity growth, increase in capital-labor ratio, and returns to scale.
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Geographic Concentration as a Dynamic Process
March 1998
Working Paper Number:
CES-98-03
This degree of geographic concentration of individual manufacturing industries in the U.S. has declined only slightly in the last twenty years. At the same time, new plant births, plant expansions, contractions and closures have shifted large quantities of employment across plants, firms and locations. This paper uses data from the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Research Database to examine how relatively stable levels of geographic concentration emerge from this dynamic process. While industries agglomeration levels tend to remain fairly constant we find that there is a greater variation in the locations of these agglomerations. We then decompose aggregate concentration changes into portions attributable to plant births, expansions, contractions, and closures, and find that the location choices of new firms and differences in growth rates have played the most significant role in reducing levels of geographic concentration, while plant closures have tended to reinforce agglomeration. Finally, we look at coagglomeration patterns to test three of Marshall's theories of industry agglomeration: (1) agglomeration saves transport costs by proximity to input suppliers or final consumers, (2) agglomeration allows for labor market pooling, and (3) agglomeration facilitates intellectual spillovers. While there is some truth behind all three theories, we find that industrial location is far more driven by labor mix than by any of the other explanatory variables.
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USING LINKED CENSUS R&D-LRD DATA TO ANALYZE THE EFFECT OF R&D INVESTMENT ON TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
January 1989
Working Paper Number:
CES-89-02
Previous studies have demonstrated that productivity growth is positively correlated with the intensity of R&D investment. However, existing studies of this relationship at the micro (firm or line of business) level have been subject to some important limitations. The most serious of these has been an inability to adequately control for the diversified activities of corporations. This study makes use of linked Census R&D - LRD data, which provides comprehensive information on each firms' operations at the 4-digit SIC level. A marked improvement in explaining the association between R&D and TFP occurs when we make appropriate use of the data by firm by industry. Significant relationships between the intensities of investment in total, basic, and company-funded R&D, and TFP growth are confirmed.
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Entry, Exit, and the Determinants of Market Structure
September 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-23
Market structure is determined by the entry and exit decisions of individual producers. These decisions are driven by expectations of future profits which, in turn, depend on the nature of competition within the market. In this paper we estimate a dynamic, structural model of entry and exit in an oligopolistic industry and use it to quantify the determinants of market structure and long-run firm values for two U.S. service industries, dentists and chiropractors. We find that entry costs faced by potential entrants, fixed costs faced by incumbent producers, and the toughness of short-run price competition are all important determinants of long run firm values and market structure. As the number of firms in the market increases, the value of continuing in the market and the value of entering the market both decline, the probability of exit rises, and the probability of entry declines. The magnitude of these effects differ substantially across markets due to differences in exogenous cost and demand factors and across the dentist and chiropractor industries. Simulations using the estimated model for the dentist industry show that pressure from both potential entrants and incumbent firms discipline long-run profits. We calculate that a seven percent reduction in the mean sunk entry cost would reduce a monopolist's long-run profits by the same amount as if the firm operated in a duopoly.
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Human Capital Spillovers in Manufacturing: Evidence from Plant-Level Production Functions
November 2002
Working Paper Number:
CES-02-27
I assess the magnitude of human capital spillovers in US cities by estimating plant level production functions. I use a unique firm-worker matched dataset, obtained by combining the Census of Manufacturers with the Census of Population. After controlling for a plant's own human capital, plant fixed effects, industry-specific and state-specific transitory shocks, I find that the output of plants located in cities that experience large increases in the share of college graduates rises more than the output of similar plants located in cities that experience small increases in the share of college graduates. Several specification tests indicate that the estimated effect is not completely spurious. First, within a city, the spillover between plants that are geographically and economically close is positive, while spillovers between plants that are geographically close but economically distant is zero. Second, most of the estimated spillover comes from hi-tech plants. For non hi-tech productions, the spillover is virtually zero. When I stratify the sample by the percentage of employees who are college educated, I find that the spillover is larger the larger the percentage of college educated workers in the plant. Third, density of physical capital in a city outside a plant has no effect on a plant's productivity. Consistent with a model that includes both standard and general equilibrium forces and spillovers, the estimated productivity differences between cities with high and low levels of human capital match remarkably well differences in labor costs that are typically observed between cities with high and low levels of human capital. This is important because, in equilibrium, any productivity gain generated by human capital spillover should be offset by increased costs.
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