This paper examines the effect of property rights on economic development within local labor markets, including how property rights change the equilibrium response to place-based policies. It does so in the context of federally recognized American Indian reservations, where a fraction of the land is held in trust by the US federal government and associated with restrictions on transactions. I find that incomplete property rights on reservations are responsible for lower wages and higher levels of unemployment. The direction of these findings is robust to an instrumental variables approach to dealing with the endogeneity of property rights. Next I shed light on the extent to which place-based policies can improve economic outcomes on reservations. I use a spatial equilibrium framework to study the incidence of casino adoption, a place-based policy unique to reservations. The key insight from the model is that incomplete property rights impose frictions in the housing market that lower the migration response to casino adoption, improving the likelihood that the local population benefits. Consistent with the model's predictions, I find that casino adoption raises average wages and that the wage effect is greater on reservations with more land in trust. My estimates suggest that wage increases correspond to welfare improvements. This paper provides insights into how place-based policies and property rights jointly shape economic outcomes through changes in the labor market, the housing market, and the mobility of workers.
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Civic Community in Small-Town America: How Civic Welfare is Influenced by Local Capitalism and Civic Engagement
December 2001
Working Paper Number:
CES-01-19
The aims of this paper are twofold: first, to gain a fuller understanding of factors that foster community cohesion and contribute to the residents' social and economic well-being; and, second, to move beyond previous research that used larger spatial units such as states, counties, or aggregates of counties and to focus instead on American small towns (population 2,500-20,000). The data on small towns are drawn from public-use files and from confidential microdata from various economic censuses. From these sources we construct measures of locally oriented firms, self-employment, business establishments that serve as gathering places, and associations. The local capitalism and civic engagement variables generally perform as hypothesized; in some cases they are related quite strongly to civic welfare outcomes such as income levels, poverty rates, and nonmigration rates. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of working with place-level data and suggest some strategies for subsequent work on small towns and other incorporated places.
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Place Based Economic Development and Tribal Casinos
April 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-24
Tribal lands in the U.S. have historically experienced some of the worst economic conditions in the nation. We review some existing research on the effect of American Indian tribal casinos on various measures of local economic development. This is an industry that began in the early 1990s and currently generates more than $40 billion annually. We also review the state of the literature on the effects of casino operations on communities in or adjacent to tribal areas. Using a new dataset linking individual and enterprise-level data longitudinally, this study examines the industry- and location-specific impacts of tribal casino operations. We focus in particular on the employment of American Indians. We document positive flows from unemployment and non-casino geographies to work in sectors related to casino operations. Tribal casinos differ from other standard place-based economic development projects in that they are focused on a single industry; we discuss these differences and note that some of the positive spillover effects may be similar to other, more standard place-based policies. Finally, we discuss additional and open-ended questions for future research on this topic.
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The Distributional Effects of Minimum Wages: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data
March 2018
Working Paper Number:
carra-2018-02
States and localities are increasingly experimenting with higher minimum wages in response to rising income inequality and stagnant economic mobility, but commonly used public datasets offer limited opportunities to evaluate the extent to which such changes affect earnings growth. We use administrative earnings data from the Social Security Administration linked to the Current Population Survey to overcome important limitations of public data and estimate effects of the minimum wage on growth incidence curves and income mobility profiles, providing insight into how cross-sectional effects of the minimum wage on earnings persist over time. Under both approaches, we find that raising the minimum wage increases earnings growth at the bottom of the distribution, and those effects persist and indeed grow in magnitude over several years. This finding is robust to a variety of specifications, including alternatives commonly used in the literature on employment effects of the minimum wage. Instrumental variables and subsample analyses indicate that geographic mobility likely contributes to the effects we identify. Extrapolating from our estimates suggests that a minimum wage increase comparable in magnitude to the increase experienced in Seattle between 2013 and 2016 would have blunted some, but not nearly all, of the worst income losses suffered at the bottom of the income distribution during the Great Recession.
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LOCALIZED EFFECTS OF CALIFORNIA'S MILITARY BASE REALIGNMENTS: EVIDENCE FROM MULTI-SECTOR LONGITUDINAL MICRODATA
December 1998
Working Paper Number:
CES-98-19
Cuts in U.S. Department of Defense budgets have led to changes in the personnel levels at military bases throughout the United States. Because these bases are often significant sources of civilian and military employment and also provide customers for local businesses, closing them distresses local citizens, business leaders and politicians. In, Defense Secretary William Cohen launched a new drive to close dozens more military bases. Given the timeliness and magnitude of these actions, and in light of the predictions of hardship surrounding them, it is important to realistically assess the impact of substantial personnel changes at military bases on employment at neighboring businesses. This study utilizes a new and uniquely well-suited confidential dataset to analyze this issue at the level closures' impact are thought to occur: individual establishments and their employees. Using an establishment-level panel dataset that covers all private establishments in California with positive employment from 1989 to 1996, I examine how the employment dynamics of establishments across the full spectrum of industries are affected by personnel changes at nearby military bases and find that despite establishments' growth rates declining, more establishments going out of business and fewer new ones starting, when bases close workers' employment prospects actually improve.
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Survival Patterns Among Newcomers To Franchising
May 1997
Working Paper Number:
CES-97-05
This study analyzes survival patterns among franchisee firms adn establishments that began operations in 1986 and 1987. Differing methodologies and data bases are utilized to demonstrate that 1) franchises have higher survival rates than independents, and 2) franchises have lower survival rates than independent business formations. Analyses of corporate establishment data generate high franchisee survival rates relative to independents, while analyses of young firm data generate the opposite pattern. In either case, the franchise trait is one of several determinants of survival prospects. The larger-scale, more established firms consistently stay in operation more frequently than smaller-scale, younger firms. Analysis of all corporate establishment restaurant units opened in 1986 or 1987 that use paid employees in 1987 helps to reconcile the seeming inconsistencies reported above. Most of the young franchisee units were not owned by young firms: rather, their parents were multi-establishment franchisees, and most of them were mature firms. Among the true newcomers, franchise survival rates are low; among the entrenched multi-establishment franchisees, survival rates were high.
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Endogenous Growth and Entrepreneurial Activity in Cities
January 2003
Working Paper Number:
CES-03-02
Recent theories of economic growth have stressed the role of externalities in generating growth. Using data from the Census Bureau that tracks all employers in the whole U.S. private sector economy, we examine the impact of these externalities, as measured by entrepreneurial activity, on employment growth in Local Market Areas. We find that differences in levels of entrepreneurial activity, diversity among geographically proximate industries, and the extent of human capital are positively associated with variation in growth rates, but the manufacturing sector appears to be an exception.
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LOOKING BACK ON THREE YEARS OF USING THE SYNTHETIC LBD BETA
February 2014
Working Paper Number:
CES-14-11
Distributions of business data are typically much more skewed than those for household or individual data and public knowledge of the underlying units is greater. As a results, national statistical offices (NSOs) rarely release establishment or firm-level business microdata due to the risk to respondent confidentiality. One potential approach for overcoming these risks is to release synthetic data where the establishment data are simulated from statistical models designed to mimic the distributions of the real underlying microdata. The US Census Bureau's Center for Economic Studies in collaboration with Duke University, the National Institute of Statistical Sciences, and Cornell University made available a synthetic public use file for the Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) comprising more than 20 million records for all business establishment with paid employees dating back to 1976. The resulting product, dubbed the SynLBD, was released in 2010 and is the first-ever comprehensive business microdata set publicly released in the United States including data on establishments employment and payroll, birth and death years, and industrial classification. This pa- per documents the scope of projects that have requested and used the SynLBD.
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Distribution Preserving Statistical Disclosure Limitation
September 2006
Working Paper Number:
tp-2006-04
One approach to limiting disclosure risk in public-use microdata is to release multiply-imputed,
partially synthetic data sets. These are data on actual respondents, but with confidential data
replaced by multiply-imputed synthetic values. A mis-specified imputation model can invalidate
inferences because the distribution of synthetic data is completely determined by the model used
to generate them. We present two practical methods of generating synthetic values when the imputer
has only limited information about the true data generating process. One is applicable when
the true likelihood is known up to a monotone transformation. The second requires only limited
knowledge of the true likelihood, but nevertheless preserves the conditional distribution of the confidential
data, up to sampling error, on arbitrary subdomains. Our method maximizes data utility
and minimizes incremental disclosure risk up to posterior uncertainty in the imputation model and
sampling error in the estimated transformation. We validate the approach with a simulation and
application to a large linked employer-employee database.
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Federal-Local Partnerships on Immigration Law Enforcement: Are the Policies Effective in Reducing Violent Victimization?
April 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-18
Our understanding of how immigration enforcement impacts crime has been informed by data from the police crime statistics. This study complements existing research by using longitudinal multilevel data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) for 2005-2014 to simultaneously assess the impact of the three predominant immigration policies that have been implemented in local communities. The results indicate that the activation of Secure Communities and 287(g) task force agreements significantly increased violent victimization risk among Latinos, whereas they showed no evident impact on victimization risk among non-Latino Whites and Blacks. The activation of 287(g) jail enforcement agreements and anti-detainer policies had no significant impact on violent victimization risk during the period.Contrary to their stated purpose of enhancing public safety, our results show that the Secure Communities program and 287(g) task force agreements did not reduce crime, but instead eroded security in American communities by increasing the likelihood that Latinos experienced violent victimization. These results support the Federal government's ending of 287(g) task force agreements and its more recent move to end the Secure Communities program. Additionally, the results of our study add to the evidence challenging claims that anti-detainer policies pose a threat to violence risk.
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The LEHD Infrastructure Files and the Creation of the Quarterly Workforce Indicators
March 2002
Working Paper Number:
tp-2002-05
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