A common result from altering several fundamental assumptions of the neoclassical investment model with convex adjustment costs is that investment may occur in lumpy episodes. This paper takes a step back and asks "How lumpy is the investment?" We answer this question by documenting the distributions of investment and capital adjustment for a sample of over 33,000 manufacturing plants drawn from over 400 four-digit industries. We find that many plants do undergo large investment episodes, however, there is tremendous variation across plants in their capital accumulation patterns. This paper explores how the variation in capital accumulation patterns vary by observable plant and firm characteristics, and how large investment episodes at the plant level transmit into fluctuations in aggregate investment.
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Missing Growth from Creative Destruction
April 2018
Working Paper Number:
CES-18-18
Statistical agencies typically impute inflation for disappearing products based on surviving products, which may result in overstated inflation and understated growth. Using U.S. Census data, we apply two ways of assessing the magnitude of 'missing growth' for private nonfarm businesses from 1983'2013. The first approach exploits information on the market share of surviving plants. The second approach applies indirect inference to firm-level data. We find: (i) missing growth from imputation is substantial ' at least 0.6 percentage points per year; and (ii) most of the missing growth is due to creative destruction (as opposed to new varieties).
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Costs, Demand, and Imperfect Competition as Determinants of Plant_level Output Prices
June 1992
Working Paper Number:
CES-92-05
The empirical modeling of imperfectly competitive markets has been constrained by the difficulty of obtaining micro data on individual producer prices, outputs, and costs. In this paper we utilize micro data collected from the 1977 Census of Manufactures to study the determinants of plant-level output prices among U.S. bread producers. A theoretical model of short-run price competition among plants producing differentiated products is used to specify reduced-form equations for each plant's price and output. Estimates of the reduced-form equations indicate that the main determinants of both the plant's output level and output price are the plant's own cost variables, particularly its capital stock and the prices of material inputs. The number of rival producers faced by the plant, the production costs of these rivals, and the demand conditions faced by the plant play no role in price or output determination. The results are not consistent with either oligopolistic competition or monopoly behavior, but rather are consistent with price-taking behavior by individual producers combined with output quality differentials across producers.
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NEW EVIDENCE ON EMPLOYER PRICE-SENSITIVITY OF OFFERING HEALTH INSURANCE
January 2014
Working Paper Number:
CES-14-01
Economic incentives such as the preferential tax treatment of premiums and economies of scale encourage employers to provide health insurance through the workplace. The employer's decision to offer health insurance depends on how much workers value insurance relative to wages, and that value is likely to vary, given the composition of the establishment's workforce. Using the 2008-2010 MEPS Insurance Component augmented with information from other data sources, we generate new estimates of employers' price-sensitivity of offering insurance. Our results suggest that employers are sensitive to changes in the tax price of insurance, with very small employers exhibiting the largest price-sensitivity. Employer size, workforce composition, and local labor market conditions also influence the employer's decision to offer insurance. New evidence can inform policy discussions about the implications of broad-based reforms that change marginal tax rates as well as targeted strategies that address the tax-exempt status of premiums.
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Response Error & the Medicaid undercount in the CPS
December 2016
Working Paper Number:
carra-2016-11
The Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) is an important source for estimates of the uninsured population. Previous research has shown that survey estimates produce an undercount of beneficiaries compared to Medicaid enrollment records. We extend past work by examining the Medicaid undercount in the 2007-2011 CPS ASEC compared to enrollment data from the Medicaid Statistical Information System for calendar years 2006-2010. By linking individuals across datasets, we analyze two types of response error regarding Medicaid enrollment - false negative error and false positive error. We use regression analysis to identify factors associated with these two types of response error in the 2011 CPS ASEC. We find that the Medicaid undercount was between 22 and 31 percent from 2007 to 2011. In 2011, the false negative rate was 40 percent, and 27 percent of Medicaid reports in CPS ASEC were false positives. False negative error is associated with the duration of enrollment in Medicaid, enrollment in Medicare and private insurance, and Medicaid enrollment in the survey year. False positive error is associated with enrollment in Medicare and shared Medicaid coverage in the household. We discuss implications for survey reports of health insurance coverage and for estimating the uninsured population.
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Wages, Employer Size-Wage Premia and Employment Structure: Their Relationship to Advanced-Technology Usage at U.S. Manufacturing Establishments
December 1992
Working Paper Number:
CES-92-15
We study wages, size-wage premia and the employment structure (measured as the fraction of production workers in an establishment) and their relationship to the extent of advanced-technology usage at U.S, manufacturing plants. We begin by sketching a model of technology adoption based on Lucas (1978) that provides a framework for interpreting the data analysis. We then study a new Census Bureau survey of technology use at manufacturing plants. Workers in establishments that are classified as the most technology intensive earn a premium of 16 percent as compared to those in plants that are the least premium earned by workers in all but the very largest plants. The inclusion of the technology classification variables in standard wage regressions reduced the size-wage premia by as much as 60 percent for some size categories.
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The Underserved Have Less Access to Employer-Sponsored Telemedicine Coverage
September 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-40
Telemedicine has been proposed as one means of improving health care access for underserved communities, and information about insurance coverage for telemedicine (TMC) is important in understanding its utilization and provision. We use 2018-2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey-Insurance Component data on employer-sponsored coverage to examine pre-pandemic TMC relative to employer, worker, and health plan characteristics. We find that the share of employees in private sector establishments offering TMC was lower in the most rural counties, in smaller firms, in establishments without unionized employees, and in establishments where most workers were low wage, part-time and older when compared to other establishments. These findings reflect differences across establishments in insurance offers, as well as differences in TMC conditional on an insurance offer, which suggests that TMC may function as a premium plan feature with limited availability and potential support for improving healthcare access for the underserved.
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Cheaper by the Dozen: Using Sibling Discounts at Catholic Schools to Estimate the Price Elasticity of Private School Attendance
October 2011
Working Paper Number:
CES-11-34
The effect of vouchers on sorting between private and public schools depends upon the price elasticity of demand for private schooling. Estimating this elasticity is empirically challenging because prices and quantities are jointly determined in the market for private schooling. We exploit a unique and previously undocumented source of variation in private school tuition to estimate this key parameter. A majority of Catholic elementary schools offer discounts to families that enroll more than one child in the school in a given year. Catholic school tuition costs therefore depend upon the interaction of the number and spacing of a family's children with the pricing policies of the local school. This within-neighborhood variation in tuition prices allows us to control for unobserved determinants of demand with a fine set of geographic fixed effects, while still identifying the price parameter. We use data from 3700 Catholic schools, matched to restricted Census data that identifies geography at the block level. We find that a standard deviation decrease in tuition prices increases the probability that a family will send its children to private school by one-half percentage point, which translates into an elasticity of Catholic school attendance with respect to tuition costs of -0.19. Our subgroup results suggest that a voucher program would disproportionately induce into private schools those who, along observable dimensions, are unlike those who currently attend private school.
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Changes in Workplace Segregation in the United States Between 1990 and 2000: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data
June 2007
Working Paper Number:
CES-07-15
We present evidence on changes in workplace segregation by education, race, ethnicity, and sex, from 1990 to 2000. The evidence indicates that racial and ethnic segregation at the workplace level remained quite pervasive in 2000. At the same time, there was fairly substantial segregation by skill, as measured by education. Putting together the 1990 and 2000 data, we find no evidence of declines in workplace segregation by race and ethnicity; indeed, black-white segregation increased. Over this decade, segregation by education also increased. In contrast, workplace segregation by sex fell over the decade, and would have fallen by more had the services industry - a heavily female industry in which sex segregation is relatively high - not experienced rapid employment growth.
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NEW EVIDENCE ON SEX SEGREGATION AND SEX DIFFERENCES IN WAGES FROM MATCHED EMPLOYEE-EMPLOYER DATA*
December 1998
Working Paper Number:
CES-98-18
We assemble a new matched employer-employee data set covering essentially all industries and occupations across all regions of the U.S. We use this data set to re-examine the question of the relative contributions to the overall sex gap in wages of sex segregation vs. wage differences by sex within occupation, industry, establishment, and occupation-establishment cells. This new data set is especially useful because earlier research on this topic relied on data sets that covered only a narrow range of industries, occupations, or regions. Our results indicate that a sizable fraction of the sex gap in wages is accounted for by the segregation of women into lower-paying occupations, industries, establishments, and occupations within establishments. Nonetheless, a substantial part of the sex gap in wages remains attributable to the individual's sex. This latter finding contrasts sharply with the conclusions of previous research (especially Groshen, 1991), which indicated that sex segregation accounted for essentially all of the sex wage gap. Further research into the sources of within-establishment within-occupation sex wage differences is therefore much more important than previously thought.
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Networking Off Madison Avenue
October 2005
Working Paper Number:
CES-05-15
This paper examines the effect on productivity of having more near advertising agency neighbors and hence better opportunities for meetings and exchange within Manhattan. We will show that there is extremely rapid spatial decay in the benefits of having more near neighbors even in the close quarters of southern Manhattan, a finding that is new to the empirical literature and indicates our understanding of scale externalities is still very limited. The finding indicates that having a high density of commercial establishments is important in enhancing local productivity, an issue in Lucas and Rossi-Hansberg (2002), where within business district spatial decay of spillovers plays a key role. We will argue also that in Manhattan advertising agencies trade-off the higher rent costs of being in bigger clusters nearer 'centers of action', against the lower rent costs of operating on the 'fringes' away from high concentrations of other agencies. Introducing the idea of trade-offs immediately suggests heterogeneity is involved. We will show that higher quality agencies are the ones willing to pay more rent to locate in greater size clusters, specifically because they benefit more from networking. While all this is an exploration of neighborhood and networking externalities, the findings relate to the economic anatomy of large metro areas like New Yorkthe nature of their buzz.
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