A common result from altering several fundamental assumptions of the neoclassical investment model with convex adjustment costs is that investment may occur in lumpy episodes. This paper takes a step back and asks "How lumpy is the investment?" We answer this question by documenting the distributions of investment and capital adjustment for a sample of over 33,000 manufacturing plants drawn from over 400 four-digit industries. We find that many plants do undergo large investment episodes, however, there is tremendous variation across plants in their capital accumulation patterns. This paper explores how the variation in capital accumulation patterns vary by observable plant and firm characteristics, and how large investment episodes at the plant level transmit into fluctuations in aggregate investment.
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High Labor Force Attachment, but Few Social Ties? Life-Course Predictors of Women's Receipt of Childcare Subsidies
September 2019
Working Paper Number:
CES-19-26
The U.S. federal Child Care and Development Fund (CCDF) childcare subsidy represents the largest source of means-tested assistance for U.S. families with low incomes. The CCDF subsidy aims to help mothers with low incomes gain employment and education, with implications for women's labor force participation, and the wellbeing of their children. Because recipients of the CCDF subsidy are either already employed, or seek the subsidy with the goal of gaining employment or schooling, this group may represent the public assistance recipients who are best able to succeed in the low-wage labor market. However, existing research on the CCDF observes recipients only after they begin receiving the subsidy, thus giving an incomplete picture of whether recipients may select into subsidy receipt, and how subsidy recipiency is situated in women's broader work and family trajectories. My study links administrative records from the CCDF to the American Community Survey (ACS) to construct a longitudinal data set from 38 states that observes CCDF recipients in the 1-2 years before they first received the subsidy. I compare women who subsequently received the CCDF subsidy to other women with low incomes in the ACS who did not go on to receive the subsidy, with a total of roughly 641,000 individuals. I find that CCDF recipients are generally positively-selected on employment history and educational attainment, but appear to have lower levels of social support than non-recipients.
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The Effect of Housing Assistance Program on Labor Supply and Family Formation
August 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-35
This paper studies the effect of U.S. Housing Choice Voucher Program Section 8 on low-income people' labor supply and family formation. I analyse this effect using data from the 2014 Panel and 2018 Panel of the restricted-use Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). My economic approach is to explore the policy which assigns housing vouchers based on an income cutoff as an instrument to study the effect of housing vouchers on low-income people's employment and family formation. The assignment policy states that households with income lower than 50% of the median income for the MSA area are eligible for housing vouchers. With household eligibility status, I compare the households whose income is slightly below the income cutoff (eligible households) with the households whose income is slightly above the income cutoff (ineligible household) to identify the effect of housing vouchers on employment and family formation. I find that housing vouchers have a negative impact on individual labor supply through both extensive and intensive margins. In addition, housing vouchers also negatively impact family formation by decreasing marriage and increasing divorce rates. This project will contribute to understanding the effect of Section 8 Housing Vouchers on low-income households' labor supply and family formation.
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Head Start and Mothers' Work: Free Child Care or Something More?
March 2018
Working Paper Number:
CES-18-13
Head Start is the largest public pre-school program in the US, but it provides many additional services to families. This paper uses a discontinuity in grant writing assistance in the first year of the Head Start program to identify impacts on the work and welfare usage of mothers. Using restricted Decennial Census and administrative AFDC data I find that Head Start decreases employment rates and hours worked per week for single mothers. I also find a suggestive increase in welfare receipt for single mothers which is confirmed by an increase in the share of administrative welfare case-files that are single mother households. For all mothers combined there are no significant changes in work or welfare use. I also estimate long-run impacts, 10 years after a woman's child was eligible for Head Start. I find large and persistent declines in work for both non-white mothers and single mothers, accompanied by an increase in public assistance income and return to school. I argue that this is consistent with the 1960's era Head Start program's focus on encouraging quality parenting, parent participation and helping families access all benefits for which they were eligible.
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The Long-run Effects of the 1930s Redlining Maps on Children
December 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-56
We estimate the long-run effects of the 1930s Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) redlining maps by linking children in the full count 1940 Census to 1) the universe of IRS tax data in 1974 and 1979 and 2) the long form 2000 Census. We use two identification strategies to estimate the potential long-run effects of differential access to credit along HOLC boundaries. The first strategy compares cross-boundary differences along HOLC boundaries to a comparison group of boundaries that had statistically similar pre-existing differences as the actual boundaries. A second approach only uses boundaries that were least likely to have been chosen by the HOLC based on our statistical model. We find that children living on the lower-graded side of HOLC boundaries had significantly lower levels of educational attainment, reduced income in adulthood, and lived in neighborhoods during adulthood characterized by lower educational attainment, higher poverty rates, and higher rates of single-headed households.
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Using Matched Client And Census Data To Evaluate The Performance Of The Manufacturing Extension Partnership
April 1995
Working Paper Number:
CES-95-07
This paper proposes a framework for evaluating the Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP). The MEP is administered by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) as part of its effort to improve the global competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing industries. As the name implies, the MEP is modelled after agricultural extension. Rather than farmers the MEP's target population is small and medium sized manufacturers, generally those with less than 500 employees. The MEP currently supports 44 manufacturing extension centers around the country. These centers provide technical and business assistance for manufacturers much as county extension agents do for farmers. The goal of evaluation is to see if MEP engagements lead to positive outcomes from the view of important MEP stakeholders (e.g., MEP clients, MEP centers, NIST, state and local governments and Congress). These outcomes are discussed in McGuckin and Redman (1995) and include: Process Outcomes (e.g., adoption of a new technology by a client); Intermediate Outcomes (e.g., reduction in the clients defect rate); Business Outcomes (e.g., survival and profits) and Policy Outcomes (increases in employment,wages and/or exports). The evaluation framework described in this paper has two components. The first component is an evaluation dataset which contains measures of many of the program outcomes listed above for both MEP clients and a representative control group of non- clients. This dataset will be constructed by linking MEP client records with plant level Census data housed at the Center for Economic Studies of the Census Bureau. The Census data provides measures of several outcome and control variables which are comparable across both plants and time. The Census data include observations for all manufacturing plants in the U.S. from which representative control groups can be constructed. The MEP client records provide data on the type and intensity of extension engagements. Linking these rich sources of information yields a comprehensive and powerful dataset for MEP evaluation. The second component is an evaluation methodology which exploits this rich dataset to make statistical inferences about the impact of MEP services, while carefully controlling for other influences. By using this methodology, we can address many of the shortcomings which plagued previous attempts to evaluate extension services. In addition to evaluation, the dataset described in this paper may be used to profile the characteristics of MEP clients and compare them to non-clients. The Census data contain the complete universe of manufacturing establishments in the U.S.
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Statistics on the International Trade Administration's Global Markets Program
September 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-17
Recent mandates for evidence-based policy choices from both the Executive and Legislative branches of the federal government underscore the importance of understanding the relationship between program participation and business outcomes. In this paper, we examine the correlations between participation in an export-promotion program and business outcomes. We use this experience to provide more general lessons learned about combining program data on treatments with Census Bureau micro data that can be used as a control. Note this paper does not evaluate a program, but instead provides critical information about a program.
The mission of the Commercial Service/Global Markets program is to help companies either start or increase their exports of goods and services. It pursues this mission through advocacy, events, and counseling. This study looks at a very small part of the overall program. While we cannot rule-out several sources of bias in our results, we do observe several consistent patterns across our models. In particular, program participation is positively correlated with export growth and change and, for small businesses, also with positive employment growth. However, overall, and for large firms in particular, there is a negative correlation with employment growth and counseling. The paper concludes with a 'Lessons Learned' section that highlights areas where measurement can be improved.
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Preschoolers Enrolled and Mothers at Work? The Effects of Universal Pre-Kindergarten
March 2008
Working Paper Number:
CES-08-04
Three states (Georgia, Oklahoma and Florida) recently introduced Universal Pre- Kindergarten (Universal Pre-K) programs offering free preschool to all age-eligible children, and policy makers in many other states are promoting similar policies. How do such policies affect the participation of children in preschool programs (or do they merely substitute for preschool offered by the market)? Does the implicit child care subsidy afforded by Universal Pre-K change maternal labor supply? I present a model that includes preferences for child quality and shows the directions of change in preschool enrollment and maternal labor supply in response to Universal Pre-K programs are theoretically ambiguous. Using restricted-access data from the Census, together with year and birthday based eligibility cutoffs, I employ a regression discontinuity framework to estimate the effects of Universal Pre-K availability. Universal Pre-K availability increases preschool enrollment by 12 to 15 percent, with the largest effect on children of women with less than a Bachelor's Degree. Universal Pre-K availability has little effect on the labor supply of most women. However, women residing in rural areas in Georgia increase their children's preschool enrollment and their own employment by 22 and 20 percent, respectively, when Universal Pre-K is available.
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Manufacturing Extension And Productivity Dynamics
June 1998
Working Paper Number:
CES-98-08
This paper presents results from an investigation of the effects of manufacturing extension on the productivity dynamics of client plants. Previous econometric studies of manufacturing extension had very little time series information. This limited what researchers could say about the relative timing of extension services and performance improvements. In turn, this makes it difficult to attribute performance improvements to the receipt of extension services. In this paper, I use a panel of client and nonclient plants to more carefully analyze the dynamics of extension and productivity. The results suggest that the timing of observed productivity improvements at client plants is consistent with a positive impact of manufacturing extension. Estimated program impacts are within the range of those found in previous studies.
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Household Wealth and Entrepreneurial Career Choices: Evidence from Climate Disasters
July 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-39
This study investigates how household wealth affects the human capital of startups, based on U.S. Census individual-level employment data, deed records, and geographic information system (GIS) data. Using floods as a wealth shock, a regression discontinuity analysis shows inundated residents are 7% less likely to work in startups relative to their neighbors outside the flood boundary, within a 0.1-mile-wide band. The effect is more pronounced for homeowners, consistent with the wealth effect. The career distortion leads to a significant long-run income loss, highlighting the importance of self-insurance for human capital allocation.
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A Dynamic Structural Model of Contraceptive Use and Employment Sector Choice for Women in Indonesia
September 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-28
This research investigates the impact of the Indonesian family planning program on the labor force participation decisions and contraceptive choices of women. I develop a discrete choice dynamic structural model, where each married woman in every period makes joint choices regarding the method of contraceptive used and the sector of employment in which to work in order to maximize her expected discounted lifetime utility function. Each woman obtains utility from pecuniary sources, nonpecuniary sources, and choice-specific time shocks. In addition to the random shocks, there is uncertainty in the model as a woman can only imperfectly control her fertility. Dynamics in the model are captured by several forms of state and duration dependence. Women in this model make different choices due to different preferences, differences in observable characteristics, and realization of uncertainty. The choices made by a woman depend on the compatibility between raising children and the sector of employment (including wages). While making decisions regarding contraceptive use, a woman considers the trade-off between costs (monetary and nonmonetary) of having a child and the benefits from having one. The primary source of data for this study is the first wave of the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS 1), a retrospective panel. In my research, I use the geographic expansion and the changing nature of the Indonesian family planning program as sources of exogenous variation to identify the parameters of the structural model. I estimate the model using maximum likelihood techniques with data from IFLS 1 for the periods 1979-1993. Structural model estimates indicate that informal sector jobs offer greater compatibility between work and childcare. Parameter estimates indicate that choices of contraception method and employment sector vary by exogenous characteristics.
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