Papers Containing Tag(s): 'Some Other Race'
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Viewing papers 1 through 10 of 20
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Working PaperEstimating the Potential Impact of Combined Race and Ethnicity Reporting on Long-Term Earnings Statistics
September 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-48
We use place of birth information from the Social Security Administration linked to earnings data from the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Program and detailed race and ethnicity data from the 2010 Census to study how long-term earnings differentials vary by place of birth for different self-identified race and ethnicity categories. We focus on foreign-born persons from countries that are heavily Hispanic and from countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). We find substantial heterogeneity of long-term earnings differentials within country of birth, some of which will be difficult to detect when the reporting format changes from the current two-question version to the new single-question version because they depend on self-identifications that place the individual in two distinct categories within the single-question format, specifically, Hispanic and White or Black, and MENA and White or Black. We also study the USA-born children of these same immigrants. Long-term earnings differences for the 2nd generation also vary as a function of self-identified ethnicity and race in ways that changing to the single-question format could affect.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperRevisiting Methods to Assign Responses when Race and Hispanic Origin Reporting are Discrepant Across Administrative Records and Third Party Sources
May 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-26
The Best Race and Ethnicity Administrative Records Composite file ('Best Race file') is an composite file which combines Census, federal, and Third Party Data (TPD) sources and applies business rules to assign race and ethnicity values to person records. The first version of the Best Race administrative records composite was first constructed in 2015 and subsequently updated each year to include more recent vintages, when available, of the data sources originally included in the composite file. Where updates were available for data sources, the most recent information for persons was retained, and the business rules were reapplied to assign a single race and single Hispanic origin value to each person record. The majority of person records on the Best Race file have consistent race and ethnicity information across data sources. Where there are discrepancies in responses across data sources, we apply a series of business rules to assign a single race and ethnicity to each record. To improve the quality of the Best Race administrative records composite, we have begun revising the business rules which were developed several years ago. This paper discusses the original business rules as well as the implemented changes and their impact on the composite file.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe 2010 Census Confidentiality Protections Failed, Here's How and Why
December 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-63
Using only 34 published tables, we reconstruct five variables (census block, sex, age, race, and ethnicity) in the confidential 2010 Census person records. Using the 38-bin age variable tabulated at the census block level, at most 20.1% of reconstructed records can differ from their confidential source on even a single value for these five variables. Using only published data, an attacker can verify that all records in 70% of all census blocks (97 million people) are perfectly reconstructed. The tabular publications in Summary File 1 thus have prohibited disclosure risk similar to the unreleased confidential microdata. Reidentification studies confirm that an attacker can, within blocks with perfect reconstruction accuracy, correctly infer the actual census response on race and ethnicity for 3.4 million vulnerable population uniques (persons with nonmodal characteristics) with 95% accuracy, the same precision as the confidential data achieve and far greater than statistical baselines. The flaw in the 2010 Census framework was the assumption that aggregation prevented accurate microdata reconstruction, justifying weaker disclosure limitation methods than were applied to 2010 Census public microdata. The framework used for 2020 Census publications defends against attacks that are based on reconstruction, as we also demonstrate here. Finally, we show that alternatives to the 2020 Census Disclosure Avoidance System with similar accuracy (enhanced swapping) also fail to protect confidentiality, and those that partially defend against reconstruction attacks (incomplete suppression implementations) destroy the primary statutory use case: data for redistricting all legislatures in the country in compliance with the 1965 Voting Rights Act.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperProducing U.S. Population Statistics Using Multiple Administrative Sources
November 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-58
We identify several challenges encountered when constructing U.S. administrative record-based (AR-based) population estimates for 2020. Though the AR estimates are higher than the 2020 Census at the national level, they are over 15 percent lower in 5 percent of counties, suggesting that locational accuracy can be improved. Other challenges include how to achieve comprehensive coverage, maintain consistent coverage across time, filter out nonresidents and people not alive on the reference date, uncover missing links across person and address records, and predict demographic characteristics when multiple ones are reported or when they are missing. We discuss several ways of addressing these issues, e.g., building in redundancy with more sources, linking children to their parents' addresses, and conducting additional record linkage for people without Social Security Numbers and for addresses not initially linked to the Census Bureau's Master Address File. We discuss modeling to predict lower levels of geography for people lacking those geocodes, the probability that a person is a U.S. resident on the reference date, the probability that an address is the person's residence on the reference date, and the probability a person is in each demographic characteristic category. Regression results illustrate how many of these challenges and solutions affect the AR county population estimates.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Demographics of the Recipients of the First Economic Impact Payment
May 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-24
Starting in April 2020, the federal government began to distribute Economic Impact Payments (EIPs) in response to the health and economic crisis caused by COVID-19. More than 160 million payments were disbursed. We produce statistics concerning the receipt of EIPs by individuals and households across key demographic subgroups. We find that payments went out particularly quickly to households with children and lower-income households, and the rate of receipt was quite high for individuals over age 60, likely due to a coordinated effort to issue payments automatically to Social Security recipients. We disaggregate statistics by race/ethnicity to document whether racial disparities arose in EIP disbursement. Receipt rates were high overall, with limited differences across racial/ethnic subgroups. We provide a set of detailed counts in tables for use by the public.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperEstimating the U.S. Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) Using Blended Survey Data, Administrative Record Data, and Modeling: Technical Report
April 2023
Working Paper Number:
CES-23-21
This report develops a method using administrative records (AR) to fill in responses for nonresponding American Community Survey (ACS) housing units rather than adjusting survey weights to account for selection of a subset of nonresponding housing units for follow-up interviews and for nonresponse bias. The method also inserts AR and modeling in place of edits and imputations for ACS survey citizenship item nonresponses. We produce Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) tabulations using this enhanced CVAP method and compare them to published estimates. The enhanced CVAP method produces a 0.74 percentage point lower citizen share, and it is 3.05 percentage points lower for voting-age Hispanics. The latter result can be partly explained by omissions of voting-age Hispanic noncitizens with unknown legal status from ACS household responses. Weight adjustments may be less effective at addressing nonresponse bias under those conditions.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperAge, Sex, and Racial/Ethnic Disparities and Temporal-Spatial Variation in Excess All-Cause Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Linked Administrative and Census Bureau Data
May 2022
Working Paper Number:
CES-22-18
Research on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States has highlighted substantial racial/ethnic disparities in excess mortality, but reports often differ in the details with respect to the size of these disparities. We suggest that these inconsistencies stem from differences in the temporal scope and measurement of race/ethnicity in existing data. We address these issues using death records for 2010 through 2021 from the Social Security Administration, covering the universe of individuals ever issued a Social Security Number, linked to race/ethnicity responses from the decennial census and American Community Survey. We use these data to (1) estimate excess all-cause mortality at the national level and for age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific subgroups, (2) examine racial/ethnic variation in excess mortality over the course of the pandemic, and (3) explore whether and how racial/ethnic mortality disparities vary across states.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperNonemployer Statistics by Demographics (NES-D): Exploring Longitudinal Consistency and Sub-national Estimates
December 2019
Working Paper Number:
CES-19-34
Until recently, the quinquennial Survey of Business Owners (SBO) was the only source of information for U.S. employer and nonemployer businesses by owner demographic characteristics such as race, ethnicity, sex and veteran status. Now, however, the Nonemployer Statistics by Demographics series (NES-D) will replace the SBO's nonemployer component with reliable, and more frequent (annual) business demographic estimates with no additional respondent burden, and at lower imputation rates and costs. NES-D is not a survey; rather, it exploits existing administrative and census records to assign demographic characteristics to the universe of approximately 25 million (as of 2016) nonemployer businesses. Although only in the second year of its research phase, NES-D is rapidly moving towards production, with a planned prototype or experimental version release of 2017 nonemployer data in 2020, followed by annual releases of the series. After the first year of research, we released a working paper (Luque et al., 2019) that assessed the viability of estimating nonemployer demographics exclusively with administrative records (AR) and census data. That paper used one year of data (2015) to produce preliminary tabulations of business counts at the national level. This year we expand that research in multiple ways by: i) examining the longitudinal consistency of administrative and census records coverage, and of our AR-based demographics estimates, ii) evaluating further coverage from additional data sources, iii) exploring estimates at the sub-national level, iv) exploring estimates by industrial sector, v) examining demographics estimates of business receipts as well as of counts, and vi) implementing imputation of missing demographic values. Our current results are consistent with the main findings in Luque et al. (2019), and show that high coverage and demographic assignment rates are not the exception, but the norm. Specifically, we find that AR coverage rates are high and stable over time for each of the three years we examine, 2014-2016. We are able to identify owners for approximately 99 percent of nonemployer businesses (excluding C-corporations), 92 to 93 percent of identified nonemployer owners have no missing demographics, and only about 1 percent are missing three or more demographic characteristics in each of the three years. We also find that our demographics estimates are stable over time, with expected small annual changes that are consistent with underlying population trends in the U.S.. Due to data limitations, these results do not include C-corporations, which represent only 2 percent of nonemployer businesses and 4 percent of receipts. Without added respondent burden and at lower imputation rates and costs, NES-D will provide high-quality business demographics estimates at a higher frequency (annual vs. every 5 years) than the SBO.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperFactors that Influence Change in Hispanic Identification: Evidence from Linked Decennial Census and American Community Survey Data
October 2018
Working Paper Number:
CES-18-45
This study explores patterns of ethnic boundary crossing as evidenced by changes in Hispanic origin responses across decennial census and survey data. We identify socioeconomic, cultural, and demographic factors associated with Hispanic response change. In addition, we assess whether changes in the Hispanic origin question between the 2000 and 2010 censuses influenced changes in Hispanic reporting. We use a unique large dataset that links a person's unedited responses to the Hispanic origin question across Census 2000, the 2010 Census and the 2006-2010 American Community Survey five-year file. We find that most of the individuals in the sample identified consistently as Hispanic regardless of changes in the wording of the Hispanic origin question. Individuals who changed in or out of a Hispanic identification, as well as those who consistently identified as non-Hispanic (of Hispanic ancestry), differed in socioeconomic and cultural characteristics from individuals who consistently reported as Hispanic. The likelihood of changing their Hispanic origin response is higher among U.S.-born individuals, those reporting mixed Hispanic and non-Hispanic ancestries, those who speak only English at home, and those who live in tracts that are predominantly non-Hispanic. Racial identification and detailed Hispanic background also influence changes in Hispanic origin responses. Finally, changes in mode and relationship to the reference person in the household are associated with changes in Hispanic origin responses, suggesting that data collection elements also can influence Hispanic origin response change.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperForeign-Born and Native-Born Migration in the U.S.: Evidence from IRS Administrative and Census Survey Records
July 2018
Working Paper Number:
carra-2018-07
This paper details efforts to link administrative records from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to American Community Survey (ACS) and 2010 Census microdata for the study of migration among foreign-born and native-born populations in the United States. Specifically, we (1) document our linkage strategy and methodology for inferring migration in IRS records; (2) model selection into and survival across IRS records to determine suitability for research applications; and (3) gauge the efficacy of the IRS records by demonstrating how they can be used to validate and potentially improve migration responses for native-born and foreign-born respondents in ACS microdata. Our results show little evidence of selection or survival bias in the IRS records, suggesting broad generalizability to the nation as a whole. Moreover, we find that the combined IRS 1040, 1099, and W2 records may provide important information on populations, such as the foreign-born, that may be difficult to reach with traditional Census Bureau surveys. Finally, while preliminary, the results of our comparison of IRS and ACS migration responses shows that IRS records may be useful in improving ACS migration measurement for respondents whose migration response is proxy, allocated, or imputed. Taking these results together, we discuss the potential application of our longitudinal IRS dataset to innovations in migration research on both the native-born and foreign-born populations of the United States.View Full Paper PDF
