Papers Containing Tag(s): 'Internal Revenue Service'
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John Voorheis - 24
Maggie R. Jones - 16
John Haltiwanger - 16
Martha Stinson - 15
Javier Miranda - 13
Viewing papers 61 through 70 of 337
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Working PaperRevisions to the LEHD Establishment Imputation Procedure and Applications to Administrative Job Frame
September 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-51
The Census Bureau is developing a 'job frame' to provide detailed job-level employment data across the U.S. through linked administrative records such as unemployment insurance and IRS W-2 filings. This working paper summarizes the research conducted by the job frame development team on modifying and extending the LEHD Unit-to-Worker (U2W) imputation procedure for the job frame prototype. It provides a conceptual overview of the U2W imputation method, highlighting key challenges and tradeoffs in its current application. The paper then presents four imputation methodologies and evaluates their performance in areas such as establishment assignment accuracy, establishment size matching, and job separation rates. The results show that all methodologies perform similarly in assigning workers to the correct establishment. Non-spell-based methodologies excel in matching establishment sizes, while spell-based methodologies perform better in accurately tracking separation rates.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperInternal Migration in the U.S. During the COVID-19 Pandemic
September 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-50
Survey and administrative internal migration data disagree on whether the COVID-19 pandemic increased or decreased mobility in the U.S. Moreover, though scholars have theorized and documented migration in response to environmental hazards and economic shocks, the novel conditions posed by a global pandemic make it difficult to hypothesize whether and how American migration might change as a result. We link individual-level data from the United States Postal Service's National Change of Address (NCOA) registry to American Community Survey (ACS) and Current Population Survey (CPS-ASEC) responses and other administrative records to document changes in the level, geography, and composition of migrant flows between 2019 and 2021. We find a 2% increase in address changes between 2019 and 2020, representing an additional 603,000 moves, driven primarily by young adults, earners at the extremes of the income distribution, and individuals (as opposed to families) moving over longer distances. Though the number of address changes returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2021, the pandemic-era geographic and compositional shifts in favor of longer distance moves away from the Pacific and Mid-Atlantic regions toward the South and in favor of younger, individual movers persisted. We also show that at least part of the disconnect between survey, media, and administrative/third-party migration data sources stems from the apparent misreporting of address changes on Census Bureau surveys. Among ACS and CPS-ASEC householders linked to NCOA data and filing a permanent change of address in their 1-year survey response reference period, only around 68% of ACS and 49% of CPS-ASEC householders also reported living in a different residence one year ago in their survey response.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperDriving the Gig Economy
August 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-42
Using rich administrative tax data, we explore the effects of the introduction of online ridesharing platforms on entry, employment and earnings in the Taxi and Limousine Services industry. Ridesharing dramatically increased the pace of entry of workers into the industry. New entrants were more likely to be young, female, White and U.S. born, and to combine earnings from ridesharing with wage and salary earnings. Displaced workers have found ridesharing to be a substantially more attractive fallback option than driving a taxi. Ridesharing also affected the incumbent taxi driver workforce. The exit rates of low-earning taxi drivers increased following the introduction of ridesharing in their city; exit rates of high-earning taxi drivers were little affected. In cities without regulations limiting the size of the taxi fleet, both groups of drivers experienced earnings losses following the introduction of ridesharing. These losses were ameliorated or absent in more heavily regulated markets.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperMeasuring Income of the Aged in Household Surveys: Evidence from Linked Administrative Records
June 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-32
Research has shown that household survey estimates of retirement income (defined benefit pensions and defined contribution account withdrawals) suffer from substantial underreporting which biases downward measures of financial well-being among the aged. Using data from both the redesigned 2016 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), each matched with administrative records, we examine to what extent underreporting of retirement income affects key statistics such as reliance on Social Security benefits and poverty among the aged. We find that underreporting of retirement income is still prevalent in the CPS ASEC. While the HRS does a better job than the CPS ASEC in terms of capturing retirement income, it still falls considerably short compared to administrative records. Consequently, the relative importance of Social Security income remains overstated in household surveys'53 percent of elderly beneficiaries in the CPS ASEC and 49 percent in the HRS rely on Social Security for the majority of their incomes compared to 42 percent in the linked administrative data. The poverty rate for those aged 65 and over is also overstated'8.8 percent in the CPS ASEC and 7.4 percent in the HRS compared to 6.4 percent in the linked administrative data. Our results illustrate the effects of using alternative data sources in producing key statistics from the Social Security Administration's Income of the Aged publication.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperCitizenship Question Effects on Household Survey Response
June 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-31
Several small-sample studies have predicted that a citizenship question in the 2020 Census would cause a large drop in self-response rates. In contrast, minimal effects were found in Poehler et al.'s (2020) analysis of the 2019 Census Test randomized controlled trial (RCT). We reconcile these findings by analyzing associations between characteristics about the addresses in the 2019 Census Test and their response behavior by linking to independently constructed administrative data. We find significant heterogeneity in sensitivity to the citizenship question among households containing Hispanics, naturalized citizens, and noncitizens. Response drops the most for households containing noncitizens ineligible for a Social Security number (SSN). It falls more for households with Latin American-born immigrants than those with immigrants from other countries. Response drops less for households with U.S.-born Hispanics than households with noncitizens from Latin America. Reductions in responsiveness occur not only through lower unit self-response rates, but also by increased household roster omissions and internet break-offs. The inclusion of a citizenship question increases the undercount of households with noncitizens. Households with noncitizens also have much higher citizenship question item nonresponse rates than those only containing citizens. The use of tract-level characteristics and significant heterogeneity among Hispanics, the foreign-born, and noncitizens help explain why the effects found by Poehler et al. were so small. Linking administrative microdata with the RCT data expands what we can learn from the RCT.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperHow Big is Small? The Economic Effects of Access to Small Business Subsidies
June 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-28
Industry size standards that determine eligibility for small business subsidies have vastly increased over the past decade. We exploit quasi-random variation in the implementation of size standard increases to study the effects on small firms, subsidy allocation, and industry outcomes using Census Bureau microdata. Following size standard increases, revenues decline for an industry's smallest firms, and they are less likely to survive. We link these effects to a reallocation of government procurement contracts from smaller to larger firms. Consequently, industries become more concentrated and growth declines. These findings highlight the broad economic effects of changing eligibility for small business subsidies.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperMobility, Opportunity, and Volatility Statistics (MOVS): Infrastructure Files and Public Use Data
April 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-23
Federal statistical agencies and policymakers have identified a need for integrated systems of household and personal income statistics. This interest marks a recognition that aggregated measures of income, such as GDP or average income growth, tell an incomplete story that may conceal large gaps in well-being between different types of individuals and families. Until recently, longitudinal income data that are rich enough to calculate detailed income statistics and include demographic characteristics, such as race and ethnicity, have not been available. The Mobility, Opportunity, and Volatility Statistics project (MOVS) fills this gap in comprehensive income statistics. Using linked demographic and tax records on the population of U.S. working-age adults, the MOVS project defines households and calculates household income, applying an equivalence scale to create a personal income concept, and then traces the progress of individuals' incomes over time. We then output a set of intermediate statistics by race-ethnicity group, sex, year, base-year state of residence, and base-year income decile. We select the intermediate statistics most useful in developing more complex intragenerational income mobility measures, such as transition matrices, income growth curves, and variance-based volatility statistics. We provide these intermediate statistics as part of a publicly released data tool with downloadable flat files and accompanying documentation. This paper describes the data build process and the output files, including a brief analysis highlighting the structure and content of our main statistics.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperAfter the Storm: How Emergency Liquidity Helps Small Businesses Following Natural Disasters
April 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-20
Does emergency credit prevent long-term financial distress? We study the causal effects of government-provided recovery loans to small businesses following natural disasters. The rapid financial injection might enable viable firms to survive and grow or might hobble precarious firms with more risk and interest obligations. We show that the loans reduce exit and bankruptcy, increase employment and revenue, unlock private credit, and reduce delinquency. These effects, especially the crowding-in of private credit, appear to reflect resolving uncertainty about repair. We do not find capital reallocation away from neighboring firms and see some evidence of positive spillovers on local entry.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperWhere Are Your Parents? Exploring Potential Bias in Administrative Records on Children
March 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-18
This paper examines potential bias in the Census Household Composition Key's (CHCK) probabilistic parent-child linkages. By linking CHCK data to the American Community Survey (ACS), we reveal disparities in parent-child linkages among specific demographic groups and find that characteristics of children that can and cannot be linked to the CHCK vary considerably from the larger population. In particular, we find that children from low-income, less educated households and of Hispanic origin are less likely to be linked to a mother or a father in the CHCK. We also highlight some data considerations when using the CHCK.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Long-Term Effects of Income for At-Risk Infants: Evidence from Supplemental Security Income
March 2024
Working Paper Number:
CES-24-10
This paper examines whether a generous cash intervention early in life can "undo" some of the long-term disadvantage associated with poor health at birth. We use new linkages between several large-scale administrative datasets to examine the short-, medium-, and long-term effects of providing low-income families with low birthweight infants support through the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program. This program uses a birthweight cutoff at 1200 grams to determine eligibility. We find that families of infants born just below this cutoff experience a large increase in cash benefits totaling about 27%of family income in the first three years of the infant's life. These cash benefits persist at lower amounts through age 10. Eligible infants also experience a small but statistically significant increase in Medicaid enrollment during childhood. We examine whether this support affects health care use and mortality in infancy, educational performance in high school, post-secondary school attendance and college degree attainment, and earnings, public assistance use, and mortality in young adulthood for all infants born in California to low-income families whose birthweight puts them near the cutoff. We also examine whether these payments had spillover effects onto the older siblings of these infants who may have also benefited from the increase in family resources. Despite the comprehensive nature of this early life intervention, we detect no improvements in any of the study outcomes, nor do we find improvements among the older siblings of these infants. These null effects persist across several subgroups and alternative model specifications, and, for some outcomes, our estimates are precise enough to rule out published estimates of the effect of early life cash transfers in other settings.View Full Paper PDF
