Papers Containing Tag(s): 'North American Industry Classification System'
The following papers contain search terms that you selected. From the papers listed below, you can navigate to the PDF, the profile page for that working paper, or see all the working papers written by an author. You can also explore tags, keywords, and authors that occur frequently within these papers.
See Working Papers by Tag(s), Keywords(s), Author(s), or Search Text
Click here to search again
Frequently Occurring Concepts within this Search
Viewing papers 31 through 40 of 390
-
Working PaperThe Effect of the Minimum Wage on Childcare Establishments
August 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-53
Childcare is essential for working families, yet it remains increasingly unaffordable and inaccessible for parents and offers poverty-level wages to many employees. While research suggests minimum wage policies may improve the welfare of low-wage workers, there is also evidence they may increase firm exits, especially among smaller, low-profit firms, which could reduce access and harm consumer well-being. This study is the first to examine these trade-offs in the childcare industry, a labor-intensive, highly regulated sector where capital-labor substitution is limited, and to provide evidence on how minimum wage policies affect a dual-sector labor market in the U.S., where self-employed and waged providers serve overlapping markets. Using variation from state-level minimum wage increases between 1995 and 2019 and unique microdata, I implement a cross-state county border discontinuity design to estimate impacts on the stocks, flows, and composition of childcare establishments. I find that while county-level aggregate establishment stocks and employment remained stable, establishment-level turnover increased, and employment decreased. I reconcile these findings by showing that minimum wage increases prompted reallocation, with larger establishments in the waged-sector more likely to enter and less likely to exit, making this one of the first studies to link null aggregate effects to shifts in establishment composition. Finally, I show that minimum wage increases may negatively affect the self-employed sector, resulting in fewer owners with advanced degrees and more with only high school education. These findings suggest that minimum wage policies reshape who provides care in ways that could affect both quality and access.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperTechnifying Ventures
July 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-49
How do advanced technology adoption and venture capital (VC) funding impact employment and growth? An analysis of data from the US Census Bureau suggests that while both advanced technology use and VC funding matter on their own for firm outcomes, their joint presence is most strongly correlated with higher employment levels. VC presence is linked with a high increase in employment, though primarily among a limited subset of firms. In contrast, technology adoption is associated with a smaller rise in employment, yet it influences a considerably larger number of firms. A model of startups is created, focusing on decisions to use advanced technology and seek VC funding. The model is compared with firm-level data on employment, advanced technology use, and VC investment. Several thought experiments are conducted using the model. Some experiments assess the importance of advanced technology and VC in the economy. Others examine the reallocation effects across firms with different technology choices and funding sources in response to shifts in taxes and subsidies.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperAn Anatomy of U.S. Establishments' Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains
June 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-44
Global value chains (GVC) are a pervasive feature of modern production, but they are hard to measure. Using confidential microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau, we develop novel measures of the linkages between U.S. manufacturing establishments' imports and exports. We find that for every dollar of exports, imported inputs represent 13 cents in 2002 and 20 cents by 2017. Examining GVC trade flows in a gravity framework, we find that these flows are higher within 'round-trip' (input and output market is the same) linkages, regional trade agreements, and multinational firm boundaries. The strong complementarities between input and output markets are muted by the proportionality assumptions embedded in global input-output tables. Finally, with an off-the-shelf model, we show the round-trip results can be obtained when firm-specific sourcing and exporting fixed costs are linked.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperInvestments under Risk: Evidence from Hurricane Strikes
June 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-43
We demonstrate that firms with plants in areas subject to a significant hurricane strike reduce their capital expenditures at the hurricane-affected plants and shift capital expenditures to plants in non-hurricane-affected areas. This effect is not present prior to 1997 and only appears from 1997 on. Our evidence is consistent with the possibility that a significant climate event such as the signing of the Kyoto Protocol raised the salience of the perceived risk from actual hurricane strikes and shifted firm behavior.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperUnderstanding Criminal Record Penalties in the Labor Market
June 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-39
This paper studies the earnings and employment penalties associated with a criminal record. Using a large-scale dataset linking criminal justice and employer-employee wage records, we estimate two-way fixed effects models that decompose earnings into worker's portable earnings potential and firm pay premia, both of which are allowed to shift after a worker acquires a record. We find that firm pay premia explain a small share of earnings gaps between workers with and without a record. There is little evidence of variable within-firm premia gaps either. Instead, components of workers' earnings potential that persist across firms explain the bulk of gaps. Conditional on earnings potential, workers with a record are also substantially less likely to be employed. Difference-in-differences estimates comparing workers' first conviction to workers charged but not convicted or charged later support these findings. The results suggest that criminal record penalties operate primarily by changing whether workers are employed and their earnings potential at every firm rather than increasing sorting into lower-paying jobs, although the bulk of gaps can be attributed to differences that existed prior to acquiring a record.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperDynamics of High-Growth Young Firms and the Role of Venture Capitalists
June 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-38
Motivated by the substantial growth and upfront investments of venture capital (VC) backed firms observed in administrative US Census data, this paper develops a firm dynamics model over the life cycle. In the model, startups choose the source of financing from VC, Angel investors, or banks, depending on their growth potential, and invest in innovation. The calibrated model explains the life-cycle dynamics of firms with different sources of financing and implies that venture capitalists' advice accounts for around 22% of the growth of VC-backed firms. A counterfactual economy without VC financing would lose aggregate consumption by around 0.4%.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperTapping Business and Household Surveys to Sharpen Our View of Work from Home
June 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-36
Timely business-level measures of work from home (WFH) are scarce for the U.S. economy. We review prior survey-based efforts to quantify the incidence and character of WFH and describe new questions that we developed and fielded for the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS). Drawing on more than 150,000 firm-level responses to the BTOS, we obtain four main findings. First, nearly a third of businesses have employees who work from home, with tremendous variation across sectors. The share of businesses with WFH employees is nearly ten times larger in the Information sector than in Accommodation and Food Services. Second, employees work from home about 1 day per week, on average, and businesses expect similar WFH levels in five years. Third, feasibility aside, businesses' largest concern with WFH relates to productivity. Seven percent of businesses find that onsite work is more productive, while two percent find that WFH is more productive. Fourth, there is a low level of tracking and monitoring of WFH activities, with 70% of firms reporting they do not track employee days in the office and 75% reporting they do not monitor employees when they work from home. These lessons serve as a starting point for enhancing WFH-related content in the American Community Survey and other household surveys.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperFirm Heterogeneity, Misallocation, and Trade
May 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-33
To what extent do domestic distortions influence the gains from trade? Using data from Chinese manufacturing surveys and U.S. census records, I document two novel stylized facts: (1) Larger producers in China exhibit lower revenue productivity, whereas larger producers in the U.S. exhibit higher revenue productivity. (2) Larger exporters in China exhibit lower export intensity, whereas larger exporters in the U.S. exhibit higher export intensity. A model of heterogeneous producers shows that only the U.S. patterns are consistent with an efficient allocation. To reconcile the observed patterns in China, I introduce producer- and destination-specific subsidies and estimate the model without imposing functional form assumptions on the joint distribution of productivity and subsidy rates. Accounting for distortions in China leads to substantially smaller estimated gains from trade.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperMulti-Market Contact in International Trade; Evidence from U.S. Battery Exporters
May 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-32
When competitors compete in more than one market they are said to have multi-market contact (MMC). Firms with MMC are more likely collude to avoid cross-market retaliation. This paper investigates the impact of MMC among U.S. battery exporters on the prices they set in foreign markets using confidential export transaction data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. The ability of firms to exploit MMC for collusive gain in international markets can be both detrimental to import-dependent consumers and harder for anti-trust authorities to detect. Motivated by litigation finding evidence of collusive behavior by multi-national battery manufacturers, MMC has an upward effect on export prices set by U.S. battery exporters. These results are robust across different panel regression specifications using different measures of MMC.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperProperty Rights, Firm Size and Investments in Innovation: Evidence from the America Invents Act
May 2025
Working Paper Number:
CES-25-31
I analyze whether a change in patent systems differentially affects firm-level innovation investments at patent-valuing firms of different sizes. Using legally required, economically representative, U.S. Census Bureau microdata, I separate firms into groups based on a firm's response to a question asking it to rank the degree of patent importance to its business and firm-size. I then measure how firms' innovation inputs/outputs respond to the America Invents Act (AIA). Results show the AIA reduced innovation investments at smaller, patent-valuing firms while increasing innovation investments at larger, patent-valuing firms, highlighting differential firm-size effects of patent policy and policy's importance to investments.View Full Paper PDF
