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High-Growth Entrepreneurship
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-53
We study the patterns and determinants of job creation for a large cohort of start-up firms. Analysis of the universe of U.S. employers reveals strong persistence in employment size from firm birth to age seven, with a small fraction of firms accounting for most employment at both ages, patterns that are little explained by finely disaggregated industry controls or amount of finance. Linking to data from the Survey of Business Owners on characteristics of 54,700 founders of 36,400 start-ups, and defining 'high growth' as the top 5% of firms in the size distribution at age zero and seven, we find that women have a 30% lower probability of founding high-growth entrepreneurships at both ages. A similar gap for African-Americans at start-up disappears by age seven. Other differences with respect to race, ethnicity, and nativity are modest. Founder age is initially positively associated with high growth probability but the profile flattens after seven years and even becomes slightly negative. The education profile is initially concave, with advanced degree recipients no more likely to found high growth firms than high school graduates, but the former catch up to those with bachelor's degrees by firm age seven, while the latter do not. Most other relationships of high growth with founder characteristics are highly persistent over time. Prior business ownership is strongly positively associated, and veteran experience negatively associated, with high growth. A larger founding team raises the probability of high growth, while diversity (by gender, age, race/ethnicity, or nativity) either lowers the probability or has little effect. More start-up capital raises the high-growth propensity of firms founded by a sole proprietor, women, minorities, immigrants, veterans, novice entrepreneurs, and those who are younger or with less education. Perhaps surprisingly, women, minorities, and those with less education tend to choose high growth industries, but fewer of them achieve high growth compared to their industry peers.
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The Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs: An Update
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-46
We provide an update on the Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs (ASE), which is a relatively new Census Bureau business survey. About 290,000 employer firms in the private, non-agricultural U.S. economy are in the ASE sample. Its content is relatively constant over collections, allowing for comparability over time; however, each year there are approximately ten new questions in a changing topical module. Earlier topical modules covered innovation (2014) and management practices (2015). The topical module for reference year 2016 covers business advice and planning, finance, and regulations. The ASE is collected through a partnership of the Census Bureau with the Kauffman Foundation and the Minority Business Development Agency. Qualified researchers on approved projects may request access to the ASE micro data through the Federal Statistical Research Data Center (FSRDC) network.
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Brighter Prospects? Assessing the Franchise Advantage using Census Data
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-21
This paper uses Census micro data to examine how starting a business as a franchise rather than an independent business affects its survival and growth prospects. We first consider the factors that influence the business owner's decision about being franchised, and then use different empirical approaches to correct for selection bias in our performance analyses. We find that franchised businesses on average benefit from higher survival rates and faster initial growth relative to independent businesses. However, the effects are not large and, conditional on first-year survival, the differences basically disappear. We briefly discuss potential mechanisms to explain these results. U.S. Census Bureau. All results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed. Support for this research at the Michigan Census Research Data Center is gratefully acknowledged.
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Small Business Growth and Failure during the Great Recession: The Role of House Prices, Race & Gender
November 2016
Working Paper Number:
carra-2016-08
Using 2002-2011 data from the Longitudinal Business Database linked to the 2002 and 2007 Survey of Business Owners, this paper explores whether (through a collateral channel) the rise in home prices over the early 2000's and their subsequent fall associated with the Great Recession had differential impacts on business performance across owner race, ethnicity and gender. We find that the employment growth rate of minority-owned firms, particularly black and Hispanic-owned firms, is more sensitive to changes in house prices than is that of their nonminority-owned counterparts.
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Taking the Leap: The Determinants of Entrepreneurs Hiring their First Employee
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-48
Job creation is one of the most important aspects of entrepreneurship, but we know relatively little about the hiring patterns and decisions of startups. Longitudinal data from the Integrated Longitudinal Business Database (iLBD), Kauffman Firm Survey (KFS), and the Growing America through Entrepreneurship (GATE) experiment are used to provide some of the first evidence in the literature on the determinants of taking the leap from a non-employer to employer firm among startups. Several interesting patterns emerge regarding the dynamics of non-employer startups hiring their first employee. Hiring rates among the universe of non-employer startups are very low, but increase when the population of non-employers is focused on more growth-oriented businesses such as incorporated and EIN businesses. If non-employer startups hire, the bulk of hiring occurs in the first few years of existence. After this point in time relatively few non-employer startups hire an employee. Focusing on more growth- and employment-oriented startups in the KFS, we find that Asian-owned and Hispanic-owned startups have higher rates of hiring their first employee than white-owned startups. Female-owned startups are roughly 10 percentage points less likely to hire their first employee by the first, second and seventh years after startup. The education level of the owner, however, is not found to be associated with the probability of hiring an employee. Among business characteristics, we find evidence that business assets and intellectual property are associated with hiring the first employee. Using data from the largest random experiment providing entrepreneurship training in the United States ever conducted, we do not find evidence that entrepreneurship training increases the likelihood that non-employers hire their first employee.
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THE IMPACT OF LATINO-OWNED BUSINESS ON LOCAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-34
This paper takes advantage of the Michigan Census Research Data Center to merge limited-access Census Bureau data with county level information to investigate the impact of Latino-owned business (LOB) employment share on local economic performance measures, namely per capita income, employment, poverty, and population growth. Beginning with OLS and then moving to the Spatial Durbin Model, this paper shows the impact of LOB overall employment share is insignificant. When decomposed into various industries, however, LOB employment share does have a significant impact on economic performance measures. Significance varies by industry, but the results support a divide in the impact of LOB employment share in low and high-barrier industries.
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THE DYNAMICS OF LATINO-OWNED BUSINESS WITH COMPARISIONS TO OTHER ETHNICITIES
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-33
This paper employs the Michigan Census Research Data Center to merge three limited-access Census Bureau data sets by individual firm and establishment level to investigate the factors associated with the Latino-owned Business (LOB) location and dynamics over time. The three main LOB outcomes under analysis are as follows: (1) the probability of a business being Latino-owned as opposed to a business being Asian-owned, Black-owned, or White-owned; (2) the probability of new business entry and exit; and (3) LOB employment growth. This paper then compares these factors associated with LOB with past findings on businesses that are Asian-owned, Black-owned, and White-owned. Some notable findings include: (1) only Black business owners are less associated with using personal savings as start-up capital than Latinos; (2) the only significant coefficient on start-up capital source is personal savings and it increases the odds of survival of a Latino business by 4%; (3) on average, having Puerto Rican ancestry decreases the odds of business survival; and (4) LOB are relatively likely to start a business with a small amount of capital, which, in turn, limits their future growth.
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The Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs: An Introduction
November 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-40R
The Census Bureau continually seeks to improve its measures of the U.S. economy as part of its mission. In some cases this means expanding or updating the content of its existing surveys, expanding the use of administrative data, and/or exploring the use of privately collected data. When these options cannot provide the needed data, the Census Bureau may consider fielding a new survey to fill the gap. This paper describes one such new survey, the Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs (ASE). Innovations in content, format, and process are designed to provide high-quality, timely, frequent information on the activities of one of the important drivers of economic growth: entrepreneurship. The ASE is collected through a partnership of the Census Bureau with the Kauffman Foundation and the Minority Business Development Agency. The first wave of the ASE collection started in fall of 2015 (for reference period 2014) and results will be released in summer 2016. Qualified researchers on approved projects will be able to access micro data from the ASE through the Federal Statistical Research Data Center (FSRDC) network.
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Who Works for Whom? Worker Sorting in a Model of Entrepreneurship with Heterogeneous Labor Markets
January 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-08R
Young and small firms are typically matched with younger and nonemployed individuals, and they provide these workers with lower earnings compared to other firms. To explore the mechanisms behind these facts, a dynamic model of entrepreneurship is introduced, where individuals can choose not to work, become entrepreneurs, or work in one of the two sectors: corporate or entrepreneurial. The differences in production technology, financial constraints, and labor market frictions lead to sector-specific wages and worker sorting across the two sectors. Individuals with lower assets tend to accept lower-paying jobs in the entrepreneurial sector, an implication that finds support in the data. The effect on the entrepreneurial sector of changes in key parameters is also studied to explore some channels that may have contributed to the decline of entrepreneurship in the United States.
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OWNER CHARACTERISTICS AND FIRM PERFORMANCE DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
September 2014
Working Paper Number:
CES-14-36
Minority owned businesses are an increasing important component of the U.S. economy, growing at twice the rate of all U.S. businesses between 2002 and 2007. However, a growing literature indicates that minority-owned businesses may have been especially impacted by the Great Recession. As house prices declined, foreclosures fell disproportionately on urban minority neighborhoods and one of the sources of credit for business owners was severely constrained. Using 2002-2011 data from the Longitudinal Business Database linked to the 2002 Survey of Business Owners, this paper adds to the literature by examining the employment growth and survival of minority and women employer businesses during the last decade, including the Great Recession. At first glance, our preliminary findings suggest that black and women-owned businesses underperform white, male-owned businesses, that Asian-owned businesses outperform other groups, and that Hispanic-owned businesses outperform non-Hispanic ones in regards to employment growth. However, when we look only at continuing firms, black-owned businesses outperform white-owned businesses in terms of employment growth. At the same time, we also find that the recession appears to have impacted black-owned and Hispanic-owned businesses more severely than their counterparts, in terms of employment growth as well as survival. This is also the case for continuing black and Hispanic-owned firms.
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