Papers Containing Tag(s): 'Internal Revenue Service'
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Authors
John Voorheis - 24
Maggie R. Jones - 16
John Haltiwanger - 16
Martha Stinson - 15
Javier Miranda - 13
Viewing papers 11 through 20 of 337
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Working PaperEmployees in the US Nonprofit Sector
May 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-33
The nonprofit sector employs roughly 10% of the American workforce, making it the third largest workforce behind the retail and manufacturing sectors. Despite this, relatively little is known about its employees. This paper is the first to use comprehensive administrative tax data, covering the near-universe of workers in the US, to quantify and explain the causes of the nonprofit pay differential. Unconditionally, we find the nonprofit earnings penalty to be 12% relative to for-profit workers. Estimating an 'AKM' worker-firm job ladder model, we show that most of the penalty is causal and not driven by selection. We also document considerable heterogeneity across industries, both in terms of earnings premia/penalties and worker selection, and show that nonprofit and for-profit earnings have been converging over time.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Impact of Expanding Public Health Insurance on Safety Net Program Participation: Evidence From the ACA Medicaid Expansion
May 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-32
We examine spillover effects from the ACA Medicaid expansion to public programs providing cash and food assistance. We consider program participation in contiguous county pairs crossing state borders, where one state took up the Medicaid expansion and the other did not, allowing us to better control for local economic trends that could affect program participation. We find that the Medicaid expansion increased participation in food assistance and one of the cash programs, with impacts mainly due to participation conditional on eligibility, rather than from labor supply responses. Our results demonstrate the potential for spillovers across safety net programs.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperLands of Opportunity: Differences in the Geography of Wealth and Income Mobility in the United States
May 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-30
We provide new county-level estimates of intergenerational mobility, covering multiple economic concepts: total income, labor income, homeownership, housing wealth, and total wealth. This is possible via small-area estimation techniques and linked survey and administrative data covering millions of U.S. children born between 1978 and 1986. We find that relative mobility in wealth concepts shows less spatial clustering and more spatial variation than relative mobility in income concepts. Many cities and their suburbs exhibit lower relative mobility (i.e. higher intergenerational persistence) in wealth concepts than in income concepts. Next, we show that various local characteristics are associated with some concepts of economic mobility but not with others. For example, we estimate a strong negative association between the local severity of the Great Recession and child income, regardless of parent position in the income distribution. However, the negative association between recession severity and wealth only exists among children from poorer families. We provide a public-use data package on census.gov to facilitate further research.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Real Effects of Bankruptcy Forum Shopping
May 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-29
Many non-Delaware firms strategically file for bankruptcy in Delaware. Should this "forum shopping" be allowed? This question has motivated nine proposed congressional bills over decades of policy debate. Using a novel natural experiment and Census-Bureau microdata, we inform this debate. Comparing similar firms within a Delaware-adjacent state, we show that proximity to Delaware predicts forum shopping. Instrumenting with proximity, we find that forum shopping causally: (i) prevents closures'and liquidations, (ii) shortens bankruptcies, (iii) boosts creditor recovery, and (iv) increases post-bankruptcy employment by 24.8%. Proximity to Delaware is uncorrelated with growth for not-yet-bankrupt or never-bankrupt firms, validating the exclusion restriction.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Mortality Risk of Raising Grandchildren in the United States
February 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-13
In the United States, grandparents who live with and provide primary care to their grandchildren have emerged as a particularly vulnerable group since the 1990s. Using confidential data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Social Security Administration, this study linked individuals aged 50 years or older from the 2000 census long-form sample to their death records from 2000'2019 (weighted n = 64,027,000) and examined the longitudinal association between coresident grandparenting status and mortality for non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians. We found consistently higher rates of mortality for White coresident grandparents and lower rates for Asian coresident grandparents, regardless of the duration of primary caregiving, compared to their peers without coresident grandchildren. We also found increased risks of mortality among Hispanic long-term primary caregivers but reduced risks among Black short-term primary caregivers, compared to their peers without coresident grandchildren.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperA Shock by Any Other Name? Reconsidering the Impacts of Local Demand Shocks
February 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-10
Over the last decade, research on labor market adjustment following local demand shocks has expanded to explore a wide variety of measured shocks. However, the worker adjustments observed in response to these shocks are not always consistent across studies. We create a harmonized set of annual commuting-zone-level shocks following the major approaches in the literature to investigate these differences. As one might expect, shocks of different types exhibit different geographic and temporal patterns and are generally weakly correlated with each other. We find they also generate different employment and migration responses, with trade-related shocks showing little response on either margin, while more general Bartik-style shocks are associated with economically meaningful changes in both employment and migration.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperExpectations versus Reality in Business Formation
February 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-11
Using administrative data on 17 million U.S. business applications linked to outcomes, we compare potential entrants' expectations about employer entry and first-year employment with realizations. On average, applicants overestimate employment, mainly because many expect to enter but do not. Among those who expect and achieve entry, employment is typically underestimated. Expected employment predicts entry and realized employment, but conditional on entry realized employment rises less than one-for-one with expectations. Expectation errors are highly heterogeneous and systematically related to application characteristics and local economic conditions, and they predict near-term employment outcomes. A parsimonious model with heterogeneous priors, learning, and pre-entry selection rationalizes these patterns.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperLife-Cycle Effects of Women's Education on their Careers and Children
January 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-09
We study the causal effect of women's education on their wages, non-wage job amenities, and spillovers to children. Using a regression discontinuity at the school entry birthdate cutoff, we find that women born just before the cutoff are more likely to complete some college, and experience multi-dimensional career gains that grow over the life cycle: greater employment and earnings, as well as more professional and higher-status jobs, more socially meaningful work, and better working conditions. Children's early-life health and prenatal inputs improve in tandem with career improvements, consistent with professional advances spurring'not hindering'infant investments. Career gains are concentrated in jobs that require exactly some college, the same schooling margin shifted by the cutoff, which indicates that increased post-secondary education is the primary channel for these effects. Together, the results show that women's college attendance generates large career returns'from both wages and amenities'that strengthen over time and produce meaningful benefits for children.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperNon-Random Assignment of Individual Identifiers and Selection into Linked Data: Implications for Research
January 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-06
The U.S. Census Bureau's Person Identification Validation System facilitates anonymous linkages between survey and administrative records by assigning Protected Identification Keys (PIKs) to person records. While PIK assignment is generally accurate, some person records are not successfully assigned a PIK, which can lead to sample selection bias in analyses of linked data. Using the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) between 2005 and 2022, we corroborate and extend existing findings on the drivers of PIK assignment, showing that the rate of PIK assignment varies widely across socio-demographic subgroups. Using earnings as a test case, we then show that limiting a survey sample of wage earners to person records with PIKs or successful linkages to W-2 wage records tends to overestimate self-reported wage earnings, on average, indicative of linkage-induced selection bias. In a validation exercise, we demonstrate that reweighting methods, such as inverse probability weighting or entropy balancing, can mitigate this bias.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperFresh Start or Fresh Water: The impact of Environmental Lender Liability
January 2026
Working Paper Number:
CES-26-05
I study the impact of lenders' environmental responsibility. The empirical setting exploits the U.S. Lender Liability Act of 1996, which reduced lenders' exposure to the environmental clean-up costs attached to some of their debtors' collateral, and employs difference-indifferences specifications estimated using EPA and U.S. Census microdata. Firms whose lenders face lower environmental liability risks increase pollution, reduce investment in abatement technologies by 14.7%, while experiencing small production and employment distortions. Lenders facing higher liability risks offer loans with less favorable pricing, thus financially incentivizing firms to become more environmentally responsible, and potentially monitor borrowers via shorter debt maturity.View Full Paper PDF
