Papers Containing Tag(s): 'Annual Survey of Manufactures'
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Viewing papers 91 through 100 of 246
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Working PaperWhy is Pollution from U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, and Trade
January 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-03R
Between 1990 and 2008, air pollution emissions from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent despite a substantial increase in manufacturing output. We show that these emissions reductions are primarily driven by within-product changes in emissions intensity rather than changes in output or in the composition of products produced. We then develop and estimate a quantitative model linking trade with the environment to better understand the economic forces driving these changes. Our estimates suggest that the implicit pollution tax that manufacturers face doubled between 1990 and 2008. These changes in environmental regulation, rather than changes in productivity and trade, account for most of the emissions reductions.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperSlow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News
January 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-02
We study the distribution of employment growth when hiring responds more to bad shocks than to good shocks. Such a concave hiring rule endogenously generates higher moments observed in establishment-level Census data for both the cross section and the time series. In particular, both aggregate conditional volatility ("macro-volatility") and the cross-sectional dispersion of employment growth ("micro-volatility") are countercyclical. Moreover, employment growth is negatively skewed in the cross section and time series, while TFP is not. The estimated response of employment growth to TFP innovations is su ciently concave to induce signi cant skewness as well as movements in volatility of employment growth.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperREALLY UNCERTAIN BUSINESS CYCLES
March 2014
Working Paper Number:
CES-14-18
We propose uncertainty shocks as a new shock that drives business cycles. First, we demonstrate that microeconomic uncertainty is robustly countercyclical, rising sharply during recessions, particularly during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Second, we quantify the impact of time-varying uncertainty on the economy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms. We find that reasonably calibrated uncertainty shocks can explain drops and rebounds in GDP of around 3%. Moreover, we show that increased uncertainty alters the relative impact of government policies, making them initially less effective and then subsequently more effective.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperRANDOMIZED SAFETY INSPECTIONS AND RISK EXPOSURE ON THE JOB: QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATES OF THE VALUE OF A STATISTICAL LIFE
January 2014
Working Paper Number:
CES-14-05
Compensating wages for workplace fatality and accident risks are used to infer the value of a statistical life (VSL), which in turn is used to assess the benefits of human health and safety regulations. The estimation of these wage differentials, however, has been plagued by measurement error and omitted variables. This paper employs the first quasi-experimental design within a labor market setting to overcome such limitations in the ex-tant literature. Specifically, randomly assigned, exogenous federal safety inspections are used to instrument for plant-level risks and combined with confidential U.S. Census data on manufacturing employment to estimate the VSL using a difference-in-differences framework. The VSL is estimated to be between $2 and $4 million ($2011), suggesting prior studies may substantially overstate the value workers place on safety, and therefore, the benefits of health and safety regulations.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperDisentangling Labor Supply and Demand Shifts Using Spatial Wage Dispersion: The Case of Oil Price Shocks
November 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-57
We separate changes in labor supply and demand through changes in higher-order moments of the wage distribution. We illustrate this idea in a study of the effects of oil price shocks, which generate a predictable labor demand adjustment across regions. Empirically, oil price shocks decrease average wages, particularly skilled wages, and increase wage dispersion, particularly unskilled wage dispersion. In a model with spatial energy intensity differences and nontradables, labor demand shifts, while explaining the response of average wages to oil price shocks, have counterfactual implications for the response of wage dispersion. Only shifts in labor supply can explain this latter fact.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperFinancial Frictions and Investment Dynamics in Multi-Plant Firms
October 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-56
Using confidential Census data on U.S. manufacturing plants, we document that most of the dispersion in investment rates across plants occurs within rms instead of across firms. Between- firm dispersion is almost acyclical, but within- rm dispersion is strongly procyclical. To investigate the role of rms in the allocation of capital in the economy, we build a multi-plant model of the firm with frictions at both levels of aggregation. We show that external nancing constraints at the level of the rm can have important implications for plant-level investment dynamics. Finally, we present empirical evidence supporting the predictions of the model.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperEnvironmental Regulation, Abatement, and Productivity: A Frontier Analysis
September 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-51
This research studies the link between environmental regulation and plant level productivity in two U.S. manufacturing industries: pulp and paper mills and oil refineries using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models. Data on abatement spending, emissions and abated emissions are used in different DEA models to study plant productivity outcomes when accounting for abatement spending or emissions regulations. Results indicate that pulp and paper mills and oil refineries in the U.S. suffered decreases in productivity due to pollution abatement activities from 1974 to 2000. These losses in productivity are substantial but have been slowly trending downwards even when the regulations have tended to become more stringent and emission of pollutants has declined suggesting that the best practice has shifted over time. Results also show that the reported abatement expenditures are not able to explain all the losses arising out of regulation suggesting that these abatement expenditures are consistently under-reported.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperAN 'ALGORITHMIC LINKS WITH PROBABILITIES' CONCORDANCE FOR TRADEMARKS: FOR DISAGGREGATED ANALYSIS OF TRADEMARK & ECONOMIC DATA
September 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-49
Trademarks (TMs) shape the competitive landscape of markets for goods and services in all countries through branding and conveying information and quality inherent in products. Yet, researchers are largely unable to conduct rigorous empirical analysis of TMs in the modern economy because TM data and economic activity data are organized differently and cannot be analyzed jointly at the industry or sectoral level. We propose an 'Algorithmic Links with Probabilities' (ALP) approach to match TM data to economic data and enable these data to speak to each other. Specifically, we construct a NICE Class Level concordance that maps TM data into trade and industry categories forward and backward. This concordance allows researchers to analyze differences in TM usage across both economic and TM sectors. In this paper, we apply this ALP concordance for TMs to characterize patterns in TM applications across countries, industries, income levels and more. We also use the concordance to investigate some of the key determinants of international technology transfer by comparing bilateral TM applications and bilateral patent applications. We conclude with a discussion of possible extensions of this work, including deeper indicator-level concordances and further analyses that are possible once TM data are linked with economic activity data.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperREALLOCATION IN THE GREAT RECESSION: CLEANSING OR NOT?
August 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-42
The high pace of output and input reallocation across producers is pervasive in the U.S. economy. Evidence shows this high pace of reallocation is closely linked to productivity. Resources are shifted away from low productivity producers towards high productivity producers. While these patterns hold on average, the extent to which the reallocation dynamics in recessions are 'cleansing' is an open question. That is, are recessions periods of increased reallocation that move resources away from lower productivity activities towards higher productivity uses? It could be recessions are times when the opportunity cost of time and resources are low implying recessions will be times of accelerated productivity enhancing reallocation. Prior research suggests the recession in the early 1980s is consistent with an accelerated pace of productivity enhancing reallocation. Alternative hypotheses highlight the potential distortions to reallocation dynamics in recessions. Such distortions might arise from many factors including, for example, distortions to credit markets. We find that in post-1980 recessions prior to the Great Recession, downturns are periods of accelerated reallocation that is even more productivity enhancing than in normal times. In the Great Recession, we find the intensity of reallocation fell rather than rose (due to the especially sharp decline in job creation) and the reallocation that did occur was less productivity enhancing than in prior recessions.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperINTERNAL LABOR MARKETS AND INVESTMENT IN CONGLOMERATES
May 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-26
The literature on conglomerates has focused on the misallocation of investments as the cause of the conglomerate discount. I study frictions in the internal labor market as a possible cause of misallocation of investments. Using detailed plant-level data, I document wage convergence in conglomerates: workersin low-wage industries collect higher-than-industry wages when the diversified rm is also present in high-wage industries (by 5.2%). I con rm this effect by exploiting a quasi-experiment involving the implementation of the NAFTA agreement that exogenously increases worker wages of exporting plants. I track the evolution of wages in non-exporting plants in diversi ed rms that also own exporting plants and nd a signi cant increase in wages of these plants relative to una liated non-exporting plants after the event. This pattern of wage convergence affects investments. Plants where workers collect higher-than-industry wages increase the capital-labor ratio in response to their higher labor cost -- and this response to higher wages is associated with higher investment in some divisions.View Full Paper PDF
