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Long Term Effects of Military Service on the Distribution of Earnings
August 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-17
I estimate the long term effect of military service on quantiles of earnings and education using the Vietnam draft lottery eligibility status as an instrument. I compare the local quantile treatment effect estimator studied by Abadie, Angrist, and Imbens (2002) to the instrumental variables quantile regression technique developed by Chernozhukov and Hansen (2008). Ordinary quantile regression shows a large negative association between service in Vietnam and earnings of white men, with the effect increasing in magnitude for the upper quantiles. Quantile treatment effects estimates show the opposite pattern, although much smaller in magnitude, with a small negative effect at the lower end of the distribution, and a small positive effect at the upper end. This suggests the ordinary quantile result is due to heterogeneous selection effects. The two methods of quantile treatment effects estimation give similar results.
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Concentration Levels in the U.S. Advertising and Marketing Services Industry: Myth vs. Reality
August 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-16
We analyze changes in concentration levels in the U.S. Advertising and Marketing Services industry using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's quinquennial Economic Census and the Service Annual Survey. Heretofore largely ignored, these data allow us to redress some of the measurement problems surrounding estimates found in the existing literature Firm level concentration as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index varies across the sectors comprising the industry, but all are within the range generally considered as indicative of a competitive industry. At the holding company level, the four largest organizations account for about a quarter of the industry's total revenue, a share lower by an order of magnitude than that frequently cited in the trade press.
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Trends in Regional Industrial Concentration in the United States
April 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-06
In a seminal article, Benjamin Chinitz (1961) raises the question of the effects that industry size, structure, and economic diversification may have on firm performance and regional economies. His line of inquiry suggests a related but conceptually distinct issue: how does the extent to which a industry is regionally dominated'concentrated locally in a single or small number of firms'impact the local performance of that industry? This question has received little attention, principally because accurately measuring industrial concentration at the regional scale requires firm-level information. This paper makes use of confidential plant- and firm-level manufacturing data to explore patterns of industrial concentration in the United States at the regional scale. Regional analogues of concentration ratios and other measures commonly used in the aspatial industrial organization literature indicate the extent to which manufacturing activity is concentrated in a small number of firms. Both the manufacturing sector as a whole and major manufacturing industry sectors are examined in order to determine the extent of industrial concentration in the continental United States, to explore changes over time in geographic patterns of concentration, and to investigate associations between industrial concentration and employment growth at the regional scale. Implications for understanding regional growth and for devising regional economic development policy are discussed.
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Long-Term Effects of Vietnam-Era Conscription: Schooling, Experience and Earnings
August 2007
Working Paper Number:
CES-07-23
Instrumental variables (IV) estimates using the draft lottery show that white Vietnam-era draftees suffered substantial post-service earnings losses in the 1970s and 1980s. Angrist (1990) explains these losses as due primarily to lost labor market experience. Non-public use data from the 2000 Census allow the first longerterm follow-up for a large sample from the draft-lottery cohorts. We use these data to estimate the effects of military service on earnings, schooling, and a number of other variables. Consistent with the loss-of -experience model, IV estimates of the effects of Vietnam-era service on earnings are close to zero in 2000, when the draft-lottery cohorts were middle-aged and experience profiles relatively flat. On the other hand, draft-lottery estimates show a marked increase in schooling for Vietnam-era veterans. A variety of evidence suggests this increase reflects the impact of the Vietnam-era GI Bill more than draft-avoidance behavior. The economic return to the increased schooling generated by Vietnam-era service, estimated in a wage equation that constrains the impact of Vietnam-era military service to run solely through the experience and schooling channels, appears to be less than the OLS return. Finally, we look at measures of disability. The IV estimates point to an increase in non-workrelated disability rates and non-SSA disability income, but the fact that there is no corresponding effect on employment, hours worked, or work-related disability rates suggests health was affected little by Vietnam-era service. Allowing for excess disability among veterans raises the estimated returns to GI-Bill schooling slightly.
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Social, Economic, Spatial, and Commuting Patterns of Self-Employed Jobholders
April 2007
Working Paper Number:
tp-2007-03
A significant number of employees within the United States identify themselves as selfemployed,
and they are distinct from the larger group identified as private jobholders. While
socioeconomic and spatial information on these individuals is readily available in standard
datasets, such as the 2000 Decennial Census Long Form, it is possible to gain further information
on their wage earnings by using data from administrative wage records. This study takes
advantage of firm-based data from Unemployment Insurance administrative wage records linked
with the Census Bureau's household-based data in order to examine self-employed jobholders -
both as a whole and as subgroups defined according to their earned wage status - by their
demographic characteristics as well as their economic, commuting, and spatial location
outcomes. Additionally, this report evaluates whether self-employed jobholders and the defined
subgroups should be included explicitly in future labor-workforce analyses and transportation
modeling. The analyses in this report use the sample of self-employed workers who lived in Los
Angeles County, California.
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Social, Economic, Spatial, and Commuting Patterns of Informal Jobholders
April 2007
Working Paper Number:
tp-2007-02
A significant number of employees within the United States can be considered "informal" or
"off-the-books" workers. These workers, who by definition do not appear in administrative wage
records, are distinct from the larger group of private jobholders who do appear in administrative
records. However, while socioeconomic and spatial information on these individuals is readily
available in standard datasets, such as the 2000 Decennial Census Long Form, it is not possible
to identify the informal workers by only using such data because of the lack of accurate, formal
wage records. This study takes advantage of firm-based data that originates in Unemployment
Insurance administrative wage records linked with the Census Bureau's household-based data in
order to examine informal jobholders by their demographic characteristics as well as their
economic, commuting, and spatial location outcomes. In addition this report evaluates whether
informal jobholders should be included explicitly in future labor-workforce analyses and
transportation modeling. The analyses in this report use the sample of workers who lived in Los
Angeles County, California.
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Social, Economic, Spatial, and Commuting Patterns of Dual Jobholders
April 2007
Working Paper Number:
tp-2007-01
Individuals who hold multiple jobs have complex working lives and complex commuting
patterns. Economic and spatial information on these individuals is not readily available in
standard datasets, such as the 2000 Decennial Census Long Form, because the survey questions
were not designed to collect details on multiple jobs. This study takes advantage of firm-based
data from the Unemployment Insurance administrative wage records, linked with the Census
Bureau's household-based data, to examine multiple jobholders - and specifically a sentinel
group of dual jobholders. The study uses a sample from Los Angeles County, California and
examines the dual jobholders by their demographic characteristics as well as their economic,
commuting, and spatial location outcomes. In addition this report evaluates whether multiple
jobholders should be included explicitly in future labor-workforce analyses and transportation
modeling.
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Gross Job Flows for the U.S. Manufacturing Sector: Measurement from the Longitudinal Research Database
December 2006
Working Paper Number:
CES-06-30
Measures of job creation and destruction are now produced regularly by the U.S. statistical agencies. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases via the Business Employment Dynamics (BED) on a quarterly basis measures of job creation and destruction for the U.S. nonfarm business sector and related disaggregation by industrial sector and size class. The U.S. Census Bureau has developed the Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) covering the nonfarm business sector that has been used to produce research analysis and special tabulations including tabulations of job creation and destruction. Both of these data programs build upon the measurement methods and data analysis of job creation and destruction measures from the Longitudinal Research Database (LRD) developed and published by Davis, Haltiwanger and Schuh (1996). In this paper, the LRD based estimates of job creation and destruction are updated and made available for consistent annual and quarterly series from 1972-1998. While the BED and LBD programs are more comprehensive in scope than the LRD, the extensive development of the LRD permits the construction of measures of job creation and destruction for a rich array of employer characteristics including industry, size, business age, ownership structure, location and wage structure. The updated series that are released with this working paper provide measures along each of these dimensions. The paper describes in detail the changes in the processing of the Annual Survey of Manufactures over the 1972-1998 period that are important to incorporate by users of the LRD at Census Research Data Centers as well as users of products from the LRD such as job creation and destruction.
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The Impact of Local Labor Market Conditions on the Demand for Education: Evidence from Indian Casinos
June 2006
Working Paper Number:
CES-06-14
Using restricted-use data from the 1990 and 2000 Census long-form, we analyze the impact of local labor market conditions on the demand for education using the economic shock produced by the opening of a new casino on an Indian reservation as the identifying event. Federal legislation in 1988 allowed Indian tribes to open casinos in many states and since then, over 400 casinos have opened, 240 of which have Las Vegas-style games. We demonstrate that the opening of a casino increased the employment and wages of low-skilled workers. Young adults responded by dropping out of high school and reducing college enrollment rates, even though many tribes have generous college tuition subsidy programs.
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