Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'statistical'
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Viewing papers 81 through 90 of 100
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Working PaperThe Sensitivity of Economic Statistics to Coding Errors in Personal Identifiers
October 2002
Working Paper Number:
tp-2002-17
In this paper, we describe the sensitivity of small-cell flow statistics to coding errors in the identity of the underlying entities. Specifically, we present results based on a comparison of the U.S. Census Bureau's Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) before and after correcting for such errors in SSN-based identifiers in the underlying individual wage records. The correction used involves a novel application of existing statistical matching techniques. It is found that even a very conservative correction procedure has a sizable impact on the statistics. The average bias ranges from 0.25 percent up to 15 percent for flow statistics, and up to 5 percent for payroll aggregates.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperEstimating Measurement Error in SIPP Annual Job Earnings: A Comparison of Census Survey and SSA Administrative Data
September 2002
Working Paper Number:
tp-2002-24
The third chapter investigates measurement error in SIPP annual job earnings data linked to SSA administrative earnings data. The multiple earnings measures provided by the survey and administrative data enable the identification of components of true variation and variation due to measurement error. We find that 18% of the variation in SIPP annual job earnings can be attributed to measurement error. We also find that in both the SIPP and the DER, measurement error is persistent over time. A lower level of auto-correlation in the SIPP measurement error than in the economic error component leads to a lower reliability ratio of .62 for first-differenced earnings.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Longitudinal Business Database
July 2002
Working Paper Number:
CES-02-17
As the largest federal statistical agency and primary collector of data on businesses, households and individuals, the Census Bureau each year conducts numerous surveys intended to provide statistics on a wide range of topics about the population and economy of the United States. The Census Bureau's decennial population and quinquennial economic censuses are unique, providing information on all U.S. households and business establishments, respectively.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperComputing Person and Firm Effects Using Linked Longitudinal Employer-Employee Data
March 2002
Working Paper Number:
tp-2002-06
In this paper we provide the exact formulas for the direct least squares estimation of statistical models that include both person and firm effects. We also provide an algorithm for determining the estimable functions of the person and firm effects (the identifiable effects). The computational techniques are also directly applicable to any linear two-factor analysis of covariance with two high-dimension non-orthogonal factors. We show that the application of the exact solution does not change the substantive conclusions about the relative importance of person and firm effects in the explanation of log real compensation; however, the correlation between person and firm effects is negative, not weakly positive, in the exact solution. We also provide guidance for using the methods developed in earlier work to obtain an accurate approximation.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperWithin and Between Firm Changes in Human Capital, Technology, and Productivity Preliminary and incomplete
December 2001
Working Paper Number:
tp-2001-03
View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperAn Economist's Primer on Survey Samples
September 2000
Working Paper Number:
CES-00-15
Survey data underlie most empirical work in economics, yet economists typically have little familiarity with survey sample design and its effects on inference. This paper describes how sample designs depart from the simple random sampling model implicit in most econometrics textbooks, points out where the effects of this departure are likely to be greatest, and describes the relationship between design-based estimators developed by survey statisticians and related econometric methods for regression. Its intent is to provide empirical economists with enough background in survey methods to make informed use of design-based estimators. It emphasizes surveys of households (the source of most public-use files), but also considers how surveys of businesses differ. Examples from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth of 1979 and the Current Population Survey illustrate practical aspects of design-based estimation.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperLarge Plant Data in the LRD: Selection of a Sample for Estimation
March 1999
Working Paper Number:
CES-99-06
This paper describes preliminary work with the LRD during our tenure at the Census Bureau as participants in the ASA/NSF/Census Research Program. The objective of the work described here were two-fold. First, we wanted to examine the suitableness of these data for the calculation of plant-level productivity indexes, following procedures typically implemented with time series data. Second, we wanted to select a small number of 2-digit industry groups that would be well suited to the estimation of production functions and systems of factor share equations and factor demand forecasting equations with system-wide techniques. This description of our initial work may be useful to other researchers who are interested in the LRD for the analysis of productivity growth and/or the estimation of systems of factor equations, because the specific results reported in this memo suggest that the data are of good quality, or because the nature of the tasks undertaken provides insight into issues that arise in the analysis of longitudinal establishment data.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperProductivity Races I: Are Some Productivuty Measures Better Than Others?
January 1997
Working Paper Number:
CES-97-02
In this study we construct twelve different measures of productivity at the plant level and test which measures of productivity are most closely associated with direct measures of economic performance. We first examine how closely correlated these measures are with various measures of profits. We then evaluate the extent to which each productivity measure is associated with lower rates of plant closure and faster plant growth (growth in employment, output, and capital). All measures of productivity considered are credible in the sense that highly productive plants, regardless of measure, are clearly more profitable, less likely to close, and grow faster. Nevertheless, labor productivity and measures of total factor productivity that are based on regression estimates of production functions are better predictors of plant growth and survival than factor share-based measures of total factor productivity (TFP). Measures of productivity that are based on several years of data appear to outperform measures of productivity that are based solely on data from the most recent year.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperTesting the Advantages of Using Product Level Data to Create Linkages Across Industrial Coding Systems
October 1993
Working Paper Number:
CES-93-14
After the major revision of the U.S. Standard Industrial Classification system (SIC) in the 1987, the problem arose of how to evaluate industrial performance over time. The revision resulted in the creation of new industries, the combination of old industries, and the remixing of other industries to better reflect the present U.S. economy. A method had to be developed to make the old and new sets of industries comparable over time. Ryten (1991) argues for performing the conversion at the "most micro level," the product level. Linking industries should be accomplished by reclassifying product data of each establishment to a standard system, reassigning the primary activity of the establishment, reaggregating the data to the industry level, and then making the desired statistical comparison (Ryten, 1991). This paper discusses linking the data at the very micro, product level, and at the more macro, industry level. The results suggest that with complete product information the product level conversion is preferable for most industries in manufacturing because it recognizes that establishments may switch their primary industry because of the conversion. For some industries, especially those having no substantial changes in SIC codes over time, the conversion at the industry level is fairly accurate. A small group of industries lacks complete product information in 1982 to link the 1982 product codes to the 1987 codes. This results in having to rely on the industry concordance to create a time series of statistics.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Importance of Establishment Data in Economic Research
August 1993
Working Paper Number:
CES-93-10
The importance and usefulness of establishment microdata for economic research and policy analysis is outlined and contrasted with traditional products of statistical agencies -- aggregate cross-section tabulations. It is argued that statistical agencies must begin to seriously rethink the way they view establishment data products.View Full Paper PDF
