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Task Trade and the Wage Effects of Import Competition
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-03
Do job characteristics modulate the relationship between import competition and the wages of workers who perform those jobs? This paper tests the claim that workers in occupations featuring highly routine tasks will be more vulnerable to low-wage country import competition. Using data from the US Census Bureau, we construct a pooled cross-section (1990, 2000, and 2007) of more than 1.6 million individuals linked to the establishment in which they work. Occupational measures of vulnerability to trade competition ' routineness, analytic complexity, and interpersonal interaction on the job ' are constructed using O*NET data. The linked employer-employee data allow us to model the effect of low-wage import competition on the wages of workers with different occupational characteristics. Our results show that low-wage country import competition is associated with lower wages for US workers holding jobs that are highly routine and less complex. For workers holding nonroutine and highly complex jobs, increased import competition is associated with higher wages. Finally, workers in occupations with the highest and lowest levels of interpersonal interaction see higher wages, while workers with medium-low levels of interpersonal interaction suffer lower wages with increased low-wage import competition. These findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for occupational characteristics to more fully understand the relationship between trade and wages, and suggest ways in which task trade vulnerable occupations can disadvantage workers even when their jobs remain onshore.
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The Promise and Potential of Linked Employer-Employee Data for Entrepreneurship Research
September 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-29
In this paper, we highlight the potential for linked employer-employee data to be used in entrepreneurship research, describing new data on business start-ups, their founders and early employees, and providing examples of how they can be used in entrepreneurship research. Linked employer-employee data provides a unique perspective on new business creation by combining information on the business, workforce, and individual. By combining data on both workers and firms, linked data can investigate many questions that owner-level or firm-level data cannot easily answer alone - such as composition of the workforce at start-ups and their role in explaining business dynamics, the flow of workers across new and established firms, and the employment paths of the business owners themselves.
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The Role of Establishments and the Concentration of Occupations in Wage Inequality
September 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-26
This paper uses the microdata of the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Survey to assess the contribution of occupational concentration to wage inequality between establishments and its growth over time. We show that occupational concentration plays an important role in wage determination for workers, in a wide variety of occupations, and can explain some establishmentlevel
wage variation. Occupational concentration is increasing during the 2000-2011 time period, although much of this change is explained by other observable establishment characteristics. Overall, occupational concentration can help explain a small amount of wage inequality growth between establishments during this time period.
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Cyclical Reallocation of Workers Across Employers by Firm Size and Firm Wage
June 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-13
Do the job-to-job moves of workers contribute to the cyclicality of employment growth at different types of firms? In this paper, we use linked employer-employee data to provide direct evidence on the role of job-to-job flows in job reallocation in the U.S. economy. To guide our analysis, we look to the theoretical literature on on-the-job search, which predicts that job-to-job flows should reallocate workers from small to large firms. While this prediction is not supported by the data, we do find that job-to-job moves generally reallocate workers from lower paying to higher paying firms, and this reallocation of workers is highly procyclical. During the Great Recession, this firm wage job ladder collapsed, with net worker reallocation to higher wage firms falling to zero. We also find that differential responses of net hires from non-employment play an important role in the patterns of the cyclicality of employment dynamics across firms classified by size and wage. For example, we find that small and low wage firms experience greater reductions in net hires from non-employment during periods of economic contractions.
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Spinout Formation: Do Opportunities and Constraints Benefit High Capital Founders?
June 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-07
We examine the role of human capital in employees' decisions to leave their parent firms andform spinouts. Using a large sample of individuals who formed spinouts in manufacturing industries between 1992 and 2005, and their co-workers who did not, we find that after controlling for age, education level, gender and alien status, individuals with higher human capital (measured as their earnings or experience) are more likely to form spinouts. We then examine the impact of industry opportunities and constraints on the propensity of high human capital individuals to form spinouts. Counterintuitively, we find that both industry constraints (measured as industry capital intensity) and opportunities (industry R&D intensity) reduce the propensity of higher human capital individuals to form spinouts. We interpret these results as being consistent with the argument that high human capital founders are more likely to choose larger, more capital-intensive projects than low human capital individuals, and thus face greater constraints. On the other side, R&D intensive industries appear to present abundant entrepreneurial opportunities, allowing low human capital individuals to identify their own opportunities thus decreasing the relative advantage of high human capital individuals.
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Evaluating the Long-Term Effect of NIST MEP Services on Establishment Performance
March 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-09
This work examines the effects of receipt of business assistance services from the Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) on manufacturing establishment performance. Several measures of performance are considered: (1) change in value-added per employee (a measure of productivity); (2) change in sales per worker; (3) change in employment; and (4) establishment survival. To analyze these relationships, we merged program records from the MEP's client and project information files with administrative records from the Census of Manufacturers and other Census databases over the periods 1997'2002 and 2002'2007 to compare the outcomes and performance of 'served' and 'unserved' manufacturing establishments. The approach builds on, updates, and expands upon earlier studies comparing matched MEP client and non-client performance over time periods ending in 1992 and 2002. Our results generally indicate that MEP services had positive and significant impacts on establishment productivity and sales per worker for the 2002'2007 period with some exceptions based on employment size, industry, and type of service provided. MEP services also increased the probability of establishment survival for the 1997'2007 period. Regardless of econometric model specification, MEP clients with 1'19 employees have statistically significant and higher levels of labor productivity growth. We also observed significant productivity differences associated with MEP services by broad sector, with higher impacts over the 2002'2007 time period in the durable goods manufacturing sector. The study further finds that establishments receiving MEP assistance are more likely to survive than those that do not receive MEP assistance. Detailed findings of the study, as well as caveats and limitations, are discussed in the paper.
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Customer-Employee Substitution: Evidence from Gasoline Stations*
January 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-45R
We document the adoption of self-service pumps in U.S. gasoline stations from 1977 to 1992. Using establishment-level data from the Census of Retail Trade over this period, we show that self-service stations employ approximately one quarter fewer attendants per pump, all else equal. The work done by these attendants has shifted to customers, biasing upwards conventional measures of productivity growth.
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Co-Working Couples and the Similar Jobs of Dual-Earner Households
January 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-23R
Although an increasing number of studies consider married or cohabiting couples as current, former, or potential co-workers, there is surprisingly little evidence on the extent to which couples work at the same workplace. This study provides benchmark estimates on the frequency with which opposite-sex married and cohabiting couples in the United States share the same occupation, industry, work location, and employer using Census 2000 responses linked with administrative records data. This study contains the first representative estimate of the fraction of couples that share an employer, which is in the range of 11% to 13%. These shared employers can account for much of couples' shared industry, occupation, and location of employment. Longitudinal data on the employment and residency indicates that co-working couples much more likely to have chosen the same employer than to have met at work.
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Human Capital of Spinouts
January 2015
Working Paper Number:
CES-15-06
This study examines how the human capital of spinout founders and the performance of parent
firms affect the success of spinouts by using a matched employer-employee dataset of new ventures covering 7 SIC 1-digit sectors in the United States. Our data cover 29,100 spinouts and 379,800 new ventures formed by lone entrepreneurs in 23 states between 1992 and 2005. We evaluate several components of human capital: outcomes of human capital investments vs. human capital investments, task-related human capital vs. non-task-related human capital, and individual human capital vs. group capital, and examine whether these types of human capital affect spinout performance differently. We find that spinout founder's earnings (an outcome of human capital investment) and industry experience (task-related human capital) prior to spinout formation have strong positive correlations with spinout performance, as measured by size, wage and growth rate. We also find that group experience of spinout founders prior to spinout formation has a positive correlation with spinout performance, though this effect is slightly weaker and smaller than those of spinout founder's earnings and industry experience. The effects of these three measures of human capital are mostly present after controlling for parent firm establishment fixed effects. We find some evidence that the size of parent firm establishments has a positive correlation with spinout performance, but this effect does not hold after controlling for parent firm fixed effects. Finally, we find that founder's earnings, industry experience, group experience and parent firm size are more important during the early stage of spinout formation.
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JOB-TO-JOB (J2J) Flows: New Labor Market Statistics From Linked Employer-Employee Data
September 2014
Working Paper Number:
CES-14-34
Flows of workers across jobs are a principal mechanism by which labor markets allocate workers to optimize productivity. While these job flows are both large and economically important, they represent a significant gap in available economic statistics. A soon to be released data product from the U.S. Census Bureau will fill this gap. The Job-to-Job (J2J) flow statistics provide estimates of worker flows across jobs, across different geographic labor markets, by worker and firm characteristics, including direct job-to-job flows as well as job changes with intervening nonemployment. In this paper, we describe the creation of the public-use data product on job-to-job flows. The data underlying the statistics are the matched employer-employee data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program. We describe definitional issues and the identification strategy for tracing worker movements between employers in administrative data. We then compare our data with related series and discuss similarities and differences. Lastly, we describe disclosure avoidance techniques for the public use file, and our methodology for estimating national statistics when there is partially missing geography.
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