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Decennial Census Return Rates: The Role of Social Capital
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-39
This paper explores how useful information about social and civic engagement (social capital)
might be to the U.S. Census Bureau in their efforts to improve predictions of mail return rates for the Decennial Census (DC) at the census tract level. Through construction of Hard-to-count (HRC) scores and multivariate analysis, we find that if information about social capital were available, predictions of response rates would be marginally improved.
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Public-Use vs. Restricted-Use:
An Analysis Using the American Community Survey
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-12
Statistical agencies frequently publish microdata that have been altered to protect confidentiality. Such data retain utility for many types of broad analyses but can yield biased or Insufficiently precise results in others. Research access to de-identified versions of the restricted-use data with little or no alteration is often possible, albeit costly and time-consuming. We investigate the the advantages and disadvantages of public-use and restricted-use data from the American Community
Survey (ACS) in constructing a wage index. The public-use data used were Public Use Microdata Samples, while the restricted-use data were accessed via a Federal Statistical Research Data Center. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each data source and compare estimated CWIs and standard errors at the state and labor market levels.
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Documenting the Business Register and Related Economic Business Data
March 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-17
The Business Register (BR) is a comprehensive database of business establishments in the United States and provides resources for the U.S. Census Bureau's economic programs for sample selection, research, and survey operations. It is maintained using information from several federal agencies including the Census Bureau, Internal Revenue Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Social Security Administration. This paper provides a detailed description of the sources and functions of the BR. An overview of the BR as a linking tool and bridge to other Census Bureau data for additional business characteristics is also given.
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Using Partially Synthetic Microdata to Protect Sensitive Cells in Business Statistics
February 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-10
We describe and analyze a method that blends records from both observed and synthetic microdata into public-use tabulations on establishment statistics. The resulting tables use synthetic data only in potentially sensitive cells. We describe different algorithms, and present preliminary results when applied to the Census Bureau's Business Dynamics Statistics and Synthetic Longitudinal Business Database, highlighting accuracy and protection afforded by the method when compared to existing public-use tabulations (with suppressions).
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The Timing of Teenage Births: Estimating the Effect on High School Graduation and Later Life Outcomes
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-39R
We examine the long-term outcomes for a population of teenage mothers who give birth to their children around the end of their high school year. We compare the mothers whose high school education was interrupted by childbirth, because the child was born before her expected graduation date to mothers who did not experience the same disruption to their education. We find that mothers who give birth during the school year are seven percent less likely to graduate from high school, are less likely to be married, and have more children than their counterparts who gave birth just a few months later. The labor market outcomes for these two sets of teenage mothers are not statistically different, but with a lower likelihood of marriage and more children, the households of the treated mothers are more likely to fall below the poverty threshold. While differences in educational attainment have narrowed over time, the differences in labor market outcomes and family structure have remained stable.
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Assessing Coverage and Quality of the 2007 Prototype Census Kidlink Database
September 2015
Working Paper Number:
carra-2015-07
The Census Bureau is conducting research to expand the use of administrative records data in censuses and surveys to decrease respondent burden and reduce costs while improving data quality. Much of this research (e.g., Rastogi and O''Hara (2012), Luque and Bhaskar (2014)) hinges on the ability to integrate multiple data sources by linking individuals across files. One of the Census Bureau's record linkage methodologies for data integration is the Person Identification Validation System or PVS. PVS assigns anonymous and unique IDs (Protected Identification Keys or PIKs) that serve as linkage keys across files. Prior research showed that integrating 'known associates' information into PVS's reference files could potentially enhance PVS's PIK assignment rates. The term 'known associates' refers to people that are likely to be associated with each other because of a known common link (such as family relationships or people sharing a common address), and thus, to be observed together in different files. One of the results from this prior research was the creation of the 2007 Census Kidlink file, a child-level file linking a child's Social Security Number (SSN) record to the SSN of those identified as the child's parents. In this paper, we examine to what extent the 2007 Census Kidlink methodology was able to link parents SSNs to children SSN records, and also evaluate the quality of those links. We find that in approximately 80 percent of cases, at least one parent was linked to the child's record. Younger children and noncitizens have a higher percentage of cases where neither parent could be linked to the child. Using 2007 tax data as a benchmark, our quality evaluation results indicate that in at least 90 percent of the cases, the parent-child link agreed with those found in the tax data. Based on our findings, we propose improvements to the 2007 Kidlink methodology to increase child-parent links, and discuss how the creation of the file could be operationalized moving forward.
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Assimilation and Coverage of the
Foreign-Born Population in Administrative Records
April 2015
Working Paper Number:
carra-2015-02
The U.S. Census Bureau is researching ways to incorporate administrative data in decennial census and survey operations. Critical to this work is an understanding of the coverage of the population by administrative records. Using federal and third party administrative data linked to the American Community Survey (ACS), we evaluate the extent to which administrative records provide data on foreign-born individuals in the ACS and employ multinomial logistic regression techniques to evaluate characteristics of those who are in administrative records relative to those who are not. We find that overall, administrative records provide high coverage of foreign-born individuals in our sample for whom a match can be determined. The odds of being in administrative records are found to be tied to the processes of immigrant assimilation - naturalization, higher English proficiency, educational attainment, and full-time employment are associated with greater odds of being in administrative records. These findings suggest that as immigrants adapt and integrate into U.S. society, they are more likely to be involved in government and commercial processes and programs for which we are including data. We further explore administrative records coverage for the two largest race/ethnic groups in our sample - Hispanic and non-Hispanic single-race Asian foreign born, finding again that characteristics related to assimilation are associated with administrative records coverage for both groups. However, we observe that neighborhood context impacts Hispanics and Asians differently.
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Exploring Administrative Records Use for Race and Hispanic Origin Item Non-Response
December 2014
Working Paper Number:
carra-2014-16
Race and Hispanic origin data are required to produce official statistics in the United States. Data collected through the American Community Survey and decennial census address missing data through traditional imputation methods, often relying on information from neighbors. These methods work well if neighbors share similar characteristics, however, the shape and patterns of neighborhoods in the United States are changing. Administrative records may provide more accurate data compared to traditional imputation methods for missing race and Hispanic origin responses. This paper first describes the characteristics of persons with missing demographic data, then assesses the coverage of administrative records data for respondents who do not answer race and Hispanic origin questions in Census data. The paper also discusses the distributional impact of using administrative records race and Hispanic origin data to complete missing responses in a decennial census or survey context.
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Coverage and Agreement of Administrative Records and 2010 American Community Survey Demographic Data
November 2014
Working Paper Number:
carra-2014-14
The U.S. Census Bureau is researching possible uses of administrative records in decennial census and survey operations. The 2010 Census Match Study and American Community Survey (ACS) Match Study represent recent efforts by the Census Bureau to evaluate the extent to which administrative records provide data on persons and addresses in the 2010 Census and 2010 ACS. The 2010 Census Match Study also examines demographic response data collected in administrative records. Building on this analysis, we match data from the 2010 ACS to federal administrative records and third party data as well as to previous census data and examine administrative records coverage and agreement of ACS age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin responses. We find high levels of coverage and agreement for sex and age responses and variable coverage and agreement across race and Hispanic origin groups. These results are similar to findings from the 2010 Census Match Study.
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Design Comparison of LODES and ACS Commuting Data Products
October 2014
Working Paper Number:
CES-14-38
The Census Bureau produces two complementary data products, the American Community Survey (ACS) commuting and workplace data and the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES), which can be used to answer questions about spatial, economic, and demographic questions relating to workplaces and home-to-work flows. The products are complementary in the sense that they measure similar activities but each has important unique characteristics that provide information that the other measure cannot. As a result of questions from data users, the Census Bureau has created this document to highlight the major design differences between these two data products. This report guides users on the relative advantages of each data product for various analyses and helps explain differences that may arise when using the products.2,3
As an overview, these two data products are sourced from different inputs, cover different populations and time periods, are subject to different sets of edits and imputations, are released under different confidentiality protection mechanisms, and are tabulated at different geographic and characteristic levels. As a general rule, the two data products should not be expected to match exactly for arbitrary queries and may differ substantially for some queries.
Within this document, we compare the two data products by the design elements that were deemed most likely to contribute to differences in tabulated data. These elements are: Collection, Coverage, Geographic and Longitudinal Scope, Job Definition and Reference Period, Job and Worker Characteristics, Location Definitions (Workplace and Residence), Completeness of Geographic Information and Edits/Imputations, Geographic Tabulation Levels, Control Totals, Confidentiality Protection and Suppression, and Related
Public-Use Data Products.
An in-depth data analysis'in aggregate or with the microdata'between the two data products will be the subject of a future technical report. The Census Bureau has begun a pilot project to integrate ACS microdata with LEHD administrative data to develop an enhanced frame of employment status, place of work, and commuting. The Census Bureau will publish quality metrics for person match rates, residence and workplace match rates, and commute distance comparisons.
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