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Analysis of Young Small Firms That Have Closed: Delineating Successful from Unsuccessful Closures
October 2002
Working Paper Number:
CES-02-24
This study of small businesses created between 1989 and 1992, and then closed down between 1993 and 1996, reveals that owners often described their firms as 'successful' when the disclosure decision was made. . Theoretical explanations consistent with this pattern are explored in this study. One view describes successful closures as rational outcomes of learning processes undertaken by entrepreneurs opening firms amidst considerable uncertainty. Another approach sees the seeming paradox of successful closure in terms of alternative opportunities: if something better comes along, the entrepreneur may close down. Empirically, successful closure owners are found to be moving on to more attractive alternatives.
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The Longitudinal Business Database
July 2002
Working Paper Number:
CES-02-17
As the largest federal statistical agency and primary collector of data on businesses, households and individuals, the Census Bureau each year conducts numerous surveys intended to provide statistics on a wide range of topics about the population and economy of the United States. The Census Bureau's decennial population and quinquennial economic censuses are unique, providing information on all U.S. households and business establishments, respectively.
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EXPORTERS, SKILL UPGRADING AND THE WAGE GAP*
November 1994
Working Paper Number:
CES-94-13
This paper examines plant level evidence on the increase in demand for non-production workers in U.S. manufacturing during the 1980's. The major finding is that increases in employment at exporting plants contribute heavily to the observed increase in relative demand for skilled labor in manufacturing during the period. Exporters account for almost all of the increase in the wage gap between high and low-skilled workers. Tests of the competing theories with plant level data show that demand changes associated with increased exports are strongly associated with the wage gap increases. Increases in plant technology are determinants of within plant skill-upgrading but not of the aggregate wage gap rise.
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A Guide To R&D Data At The Center For Economic Studies U.S. Bureau Of THe Census
August 1994
Working Paper Number:
CES-94-09
The National Science Foundation R&D Survey is an annual survey of firms' research and development expenditures. The survey covers 3000 firms reporting positive R&D. This paper provides a description of the R&D data available at the Center for Economic Studies (CES). The most basic data series available contains the original survey R&D data. It covers the years 1972-92. The remaining two series, although derived from the original files, specialize in particular items. The Mandatory Series contains required survey items for the years 1973-88. Items reported at firms' discretion are in the Voluntary Series, which covers the years 1974-89. Both of the derived series incorporate flags that track quality of the data. Both also include corrections to the data based on original hard copy survey evidence stored at CES. In addition to describing each dataset, we offer suggestions to researchers wishing to use the R&D data in exploring various economic issues. We report selected response rates, discuss the survey design, and provide hints on how to use the data.
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Downsizing and Productivity Growth: Myth or Reality?
April 1994
Working Paper Number:
CES-94-04
The conventional wisdom is that the rising productivity in the U.S. manufacturing sector in the 1980s has been driven by the apparently pervasive downsizing over this period. Aggregate evidence clearly shows falling employment accompanying the rise in productivity. In this paper, we examine the microeconomic evidence using the plant level data from the Longitudinal Research Database (LRD). In contrast to the conventional wisdom, we find that plants that increased employment as well as productivity contribute almost as much to overall productivity growth in the 1980s as the plants that increased productivity at the expense of employment. Further, there are striking differences by sector (defined by industry, size, region, wages, and ownership type) in the allocation of plants in terms of whether they upsize or downsize and whether they increase or decrease productivity. Nevertheless, in spite of the striking differences across sectors defined in a variety of ways, most of the variance of productivity and employment growth is accounted for by idiosyncratic factors.
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Science, R&D, And Invention Potential Recharge: U.S. Evidence
January 1993
Working Paper Number:
CES-93-02
The influence of academic science on industrial R&D seems to have increased in recent years compared with the pre-World War II period. This paper outlines an approach to tracing this influence using a panel of 14 R&D performing industries from 1961-1986. The results indicate an elasticity between real R&D and indicators of stocks of academic science of about 0.6. This elasticity is significant controlling for industry effects. However, the elasticity declines from its level during the 1961-1973 subperiod, when it was 2.2, to 0.5 during the 1974-1986 subperiod. Reasons for the decline include exogenous and endogenous exhaustion of invention potential, and declining incentives to do R&D stemming from a weakening of intellectual property rights. The growth of R&D since the mid-1980s suggests a restoration of R&D incentives in still more recent times.
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Analytic Use Of Economic Microdata; A Model For Researcher Access With Confidentiality Protection
August 1992
Working Paper Number:
CES-92-08
A primary responsibility of the Center for Economic Studies (CES) of the U.S. Bureau of the Census is to facilitate researcher access to confidential economic microdata files. Benefits from this program accrue not only to policy makers--there is a growing awareness of the importance of microdata for analyzing both the descriptive and welfare implications of regulatory and environmental changes--but also and importantly to the statistical agencies themselves. In fact, there is substantial recent literature arguing for the proposition that the largest single improvement that the U.S. statistical system could make is to improve its analytic capabilities. In this paper I briefly discuss these benefits to greater access for analytical work and ways to achieve them. Due to the nature of business data, public use databases and masking technologies are not available as vehicles for releasing useful microdata files. I conclude that a combination of outside and inside research programs, carefully coordinated and integrated is the best model for ensuring that statistical agencies reap the gains from analytic data users. For the United States, at least, this is fortuitous with respect to justifying access since any direct research with confidential data by outsiders must have a "statistical purpose". Until the advent of CES, it was virtually impossible for researchers to work with the economic microdata collected by the various economic censuses. While the CES program is quite large, as it now stands, researchers, or their representatives, must come to the Census Bureau in Washington, D.C. to access the data. The success of the program has led to increasing demands for data access in facilities outside of the Washington, D.C. area. Two options are considered: 1) Establish Census Bureau facilities in various universities or similar nonprofit research facilities and 2) Develop CES regional operations in existing Census Bureau regional offices.
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The Determinants of U.S. Intra-Industry Trade
December 1990
Working Paper Number:
CES-90-13
Responses from the Yale University survey of 650 research and development executives were linked to U.S. trade statistics at the four-digit SIC level for the years 1965-85 to test several hypotheses concerning intra-industry trade. A new index of intra-industry trade was developed to capture both the level and balance dimensions of import and export flows. Intra-industry trade is found to be more extensive, the higher industry R&D/sales ratios were, the more important economies of learning-by-doing were, and greater the relevance of academic engineering research was, and the more niche-filling strategies were emphasized in new product development. When firms oriented their R&D efforts toward meeting the specialized demands of individual customers, intra-industry trade was lower. The highest levels of intra-industry trade were found in loosely oligopolistic industries.
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USING LINKED CENSUS R&D-LRD DATA TO ANALYZE THE EFFECT OF R&D INVESTMENT ON TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
January 1989
Working Paper Number:
CES-89-02
Previous studies have demonstrated that productivity growth is positively correlated with the intensity of R&D investment. However, existing studies of this relationship at the micro (firm or line of business) level have been subject to some important limitations. The most serious of these has been an inability to adequately control for the diversified activities of corporations. This study makes use of linked Census R&D - LRD data, which provides comprehensive information on each firms' operations at the 4-digit SIC level. A marked improvement in explaining the association between R&D and TFP occurs when we make appropriate use of the data by firm by industry. Significant relationships between the intensities of investment in total, basic, and company-funded R&D, and TFP growth are confirmed.
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Public Use Microdata: Disclosure And Usefulness
September 1988
Working Paper Number:
CES-88-03
Official statistical agencies such as the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics collect enormous quantities of microdata in statistical surveys. These data are valuable for economic research and market and policy analysis. However, the data cannot be released to the public because of confidentiality commitments to individual respondents. These commitments, coupled with the strong research demand for microdata, have led the agencies to consider various proposals for releasing public use microdata. Most proposals for public use microdata call for the development of surrogate data that disguise the original data. Thus, they involve the addition of measurement errors to the data. In this paper, we examine disclosure issues and explore alternative masking methods for generating panels of useful economic microdata that can be released to researchers. While our analysis applies to all confidential microdata, applications using the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Research Data Base (LRD) are used for illustrative purposes throughout the discussion.
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