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Social, Economic, Spatial, and Commuting Patterns of Dual Jobholders
April 2007
Working Paper Number:
tp-2007-01
Individuals who hold multiple jobs have complex working lives and complex commuting
patterns. Economic and spatial information on these individuals is not readily available in
standard datasets, such as the 2000 Decennial Census Long Form, because the survey questions
were not designed to collect details on multiple jobs. This study takes advantage of firm-based
data from the Unemployment Insurance administrative wage records, linked with the Census
Bureau's household-based data, to examine multiple jobholders - and specifically a sentinel
group of dual jobholders. The study uses a sample from Los Angeles County, California and
examines the dual jobholders by their demographic characteristics as well as their economic,
commuting, and spatial location outcomes. In addition this report evaluates whether multiple
jobholders should be included explicitly in future labor-workforce analyses and transportation
modeling.
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The Long-Term Effects of Job Mobility on the Adult Earnings of Young Men: Evidence from Integrated Employer-Employee Data
June 2005
Working Paper Number:
CES-05-05
The paper follows a population of 18-year-old men to examine the impact that early job mobility has on their earnings prospects as young adults. Longitudinal employer-employee data from the state of Maryland allow me to take into consideration the endogenous determination of mobility in response to unobserved worker as well as firm characteristics, which may lead to spurious results. The descriptive portion of the paper shows that mobility patterns of young workers differ considerably with the characteristics of the firm; however, growth patterns are not significantly different on average. Workers employed in high-turnover firms (such as those in retail and services) experience more job turnover but similar rates of wage growth compared to workers employed in low turnover firms (such as those in manufacturing); however, their wage levels remain below and the wage gap actually increases over time. Regression results controlling for unobservable show that employers in the low-turnover sector discount earnings of workers who displayed early market mobility. By contrast, I find no evidence that mobility has negative effects for workers that remain employed in the high turnover sector.
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The Dynamics of Worker Reallocation Within and Across Industries
June 2005
Working Paper Number:
tp-2005-02
This paper uses an integrated employer-employee data set to answer two key questions:
1. What is the "equilibrium" amount of worker reallocation in the economy - both within and across industries?
2. How much does firm-level job reallocation affect the separation probabilities of workers?
Consistent with other work, we find that there is a great deal of reallocation in the economy,
although this varies substantially across demographic group. Much worker reallocation is
within the economy, roughly evenly split between within and across broadly defined
industries. An important new finding is that much of this reallocation is confined to a
relatively small subset of workers that is shuffled across jobs - both within and across
industries - in the economy. However, we also find that even for the most stable group of
workers, firm level job reallocation substantially increases the probability of transition for
even the most stable group of workers. Finally, workers who are employed in industries that
provide low returns to tenure are much more likely to reallocate both within and across
industries.
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Employment Adjustment Costs and Establishment Characteristics
November 1999
Working Paper Number:
CES-99-15
Microeconomic employment adjustment costs affect not only employment adjustments at the micro level but may also profoundly impact aggregate employment dynamics. This paper sheds light on the nature of these microeconomic employment adjustment costs and quantifies their impact on aggregate employment dynamics. The empirical exercises in the paper analyze the differences in employment adjustments by establishment characteristics within a hazard model framework using micro data for approximately 10,000 U.S. manufacturing plants. I find that employment adjustments vary systematically by establishment characteristics; moreover, these variations suggest that employment adjustment costs reflect the technology of the plant, the skill of its workforce, and the plant's access to capital markets. Concerning the structure of the adjustment costs, the employment adjustments have significant nonlinearities and asymmetries consistent with nonconvex, asymmetric adjustment costs. Specifically, employment adjustment behavior shows substantial inertia in the face of large employment surpluses, varied adjustment behavior for small deviations from desired employment, and (S,s)-type of bimodal adjustments in response to large employment shortages. Finally, the micro level heterogeneity, asymmetries, and nonlinearities significantly impact sectoral and aggregate employment dynamics.
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ON THE SOURCES AND SIZE OF EMPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENT COSTS
May 1999
Working Paper Number:
CES-99-07
Micro employment adjustment costs affect not only establishment-level dynamics but can also affect aggregate employment dynamics. The difficulties in directly observing and measuring these adjustment costs necessitate an indirect approach in order to learn more about the sources and size of these costs. This paper examines differences in employment adjustments by worker and establishment characteristics using micro-level data for approximately 11,000 U.S. manufacturing plants. Differences in the speed of adjustment within the organizing framework of the traditional partial adjustment model are used to identify the source and size of employment adjustment costs. The estimates are undertaken using three different techniques and under a variety of assumptions concerning market structure, worker heterogeneity, and degree of interrelation of inputs. The estimates show that employment adjustment speeds differ over worker and establishment characteristics in a manner that is consistent with the underlying adjustment cost stories. These differences suggest that systematic changes in the distribution of establishments over these characteristics can influence aggregate employment dynamics in response to a shock through compositional effects.
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LOCALIZED EFFECTS OF CALIFORNIA'S MILITARY BASE REALIGNMENTS: EVIDENCE FROM MULTI-SECTOR LONGITUDINAL MICRODATA
December 1998
Working Paper Number:
CES-98-19
Cuts in U.S. Department of Defense budgets have led to changes in the personnel levels at military bases throughout the United States. Because these bases are often significant sources of civilian and military employment and also provide customers for local businesses, closing them distresses local citizens, business leaders and politicians. In, Defense Secretary William Cohen launched a new drive to close dozens more military bases. Given the timeliness and magnitude of these actions, and in light of the predictions of hardship surrounding them, it is important to realistically assess the impact of substantial personnel changes at military bases on employment at neighboring businesses. This study utilizes a new and uniquely well-suited confidential dataset to analyze this issue at the level closures' impact are thought to occur: individual establishments and their employees. Using an establishment-level panel dataset that covers all private establishments in California with positive employment from 1989 to 1996, I examine how the employment dynamics of establishments across the full spectrum of industries are affected by personnel changes at nearby military bases and find that despite establishments' growth rates declining, more establishments going out of business and fewer new ones starting, when bases close workers' employment prospects actually improve.
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Decomposing Learning By Doing in New Plants
December 1992
Working Paper Number:
CES-92-16
The paper examines learning by doing in the context of a production function in which the other arguments are labor, human capital, physical capital, and vintage as a proxy for embodied technical change in physical capital. Learning is further decomposed into organization learning, capital learning, and manual task learning. The model is tested with time series and cross section data for various samples of up to 2,150 plants over a 14 year period. Word Perfect Version
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Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction and Employment Reallocation
June 1990
Working Paper Number:
CES-90-04
This paper measures the heterogeneity of establishment-level employment changes in the U.S. manufacturing sector over the 1972 to 1986 period. Our empirical work exploits a rich data set with approximately 860,000 annual observations on 160,000 manufacturing establishments to calculate rates of gross job creation, gross job destruction, and their sum, gross job reallocation. The central empirical findings are as follows: (1) Based on March-to-March establishment-level employment changes, gross job reallocation averages more than 20% of employment per year. (2) For the manufacturing sector as a whole, March-to-March gross job reallocation varies over time from 17% to 23% of employment per year. (3) Time variation in gross job reallocation is countercyclic-gross job reallocation rates covary negatively with own-sector and manufacturing net employment growth rates. (4) Virtually all of the time variation in gross job reallocation is accounted for by idiosyncratic effects on the establishment growth rate density. Changes in the shape and location of the growth rate density due to aggregate-year effects and sector-year effects cannot explain the observed variation in gross job reallocation. (5) The part of gross job reallocation attributable to idiosyncratic effects fluctuates countercyclically. Combining (3) ' (5), we conclude that the intensity of shifts in the pattern of employment opportunities across establishments exhibits significant countercyclic variation. In preparing the data for this study, we have greatly benefited from the assistance of Robert Bechtold, Timothy Dunne, Cyr Linonis, James Monahan, Al Nucci and other Census Bureau employees at the Center for Economic Studies. We have also benefited from helpful comments by Katherine Abraham, Martin Baily, Fischer Black, Timothy Dunne, David Lilien, Robert McGuckin, Kevin M. Murphy, Larrty Katz, John Wallis, workshop participants at the University of Maryland, the Resource Mobility Session of the Econometric society (Winter 1988 meetings), an NBER conference on Alternative Explanations of Employment Fluctuations, and the NBER's Economic Fluctuations Program Meeting (Summer 1989). Scott Schuh provided excellent research assistance. We gratefully acknowledge the financial assistance of the National Science Foundation (SES-8721031 and SES-8720931), the Hoover Institution, and the Office of Graduate Studies and Research at the University of Maryland. Davis also thanks the National Science Foundation for it's support through a grant to the National Fellows Program at the Hoover Institution. Most of the research for this paper was conducted while Davis was a National Fellow at the Hoover Institution.
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