Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'employment unemployment'
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Viewing papers 11 through 15 of 15
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Working PaperChanges in EITC Eligibility and Participation, 2005'2009
July 2014
Working Paper Number:
carra-2014-04
The rate of participation in the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has been widely studied, but changes over time in eligibility for the credit have received less attention. One question of importance to policy-makers is whether (or by how much) eligibility might increase during economic downturns. The EITC is fundamentally tied to work. During periods of high unemployment, eligibility may decrease due to a lower number of workers - especially low-skilled workers - filing for a given tax year. On the other hand, family structure and underemployment may lead to increases in eligibility. For example, earners may become eligible when a two-earner family loses one job or when an earner works part of the year or fewer hours. Using IRS tax data linked with the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC), I examine changes in EITC eligibility and take-up between tax years 2005 and 2009, during which time the Great Recession began and ended. Employing fixed-effects models, I assess patterns of eligibility among demographic groups based on characteristics that also predict labor market outcomes. Results indicate that, in a period when overall EITC eligibility rates increased, the state unemployment rate had a significant positive effect on eligibility and a significant negative effect on take-up. Meanwhile, although joint filers, those with more children, and men experienced increasing rates of eligibility, those with less education experienced decreasing rates. Results point to the possibility that labor market groups who experienced the highest rates of unemployment in the recession may have become ineligible due to full-year job loss.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Recent Decline in Employment Dynamics
March 2013
Working Paper Number:
CES-13-03
In recent years, the rate at which workers and businesses exchange jobs has declined in the United States. Between 1998 and 2010, rates of job creation, job destruction, hiring, and separation declined dramatically, and the rate of job-to-job flows fell by about half. Little is known about the nature and extent of these changes, and even less about their causes and implications. In this paper, we document and attempt to explain the recent decline in employment dynamics. Our empirical work relies on the four leading datasets of quarterly employment dynamics in the United States ' the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD), the Business Employment Dynamics (BED), the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), and the Current Population Survey (CPS). We find that changes in the composition of the labor force and of employers explain relatively little of the decline. Exploiting some identities that relate the different measures to each other, we find that job creation and destruction could explain as much of a third of the decline in hires and separations, while job-to-job flows may explain more of the decline. We end our paper with a discussion of different possible explanations and their relative merits.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe United States Labor Market: Status Quo or A New Normal?
September 2012
Working Paper Number:
CES-12-28
The recession of 2007-09 witnessed high rates of unemployment that have been slow to recede. This has led many to conclude that structural changes have occurred in the labor market and that the economy will not return to the low rates of unemployment that prevailed in the recent past. Is this true? The question is important because central banks may be able to reduce unemployment that is cyclic in nature, but not that which is structural. An analysis of labor market data suggests that there are no structural changes that can explain movements in unemployment rates over recent years. Neither industrial nor demographic shifts nor a mismatch of skills with job vacancies is behind the increased rates of unemployment. Although mismatch increased during the recession, it retreated at the same rate. The patterns observed are consistent with unemployment being caused by cyclic phenomena that are more pronounced during the current recession than in prior recessions.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperBusiness Volatility, Job Destruction, and Unemployment
August 2008
Working Paper Number:
CES-08-26
Unemployment inflows fell from 4 percent of employment per month in the early 1980s to 2 percent or less by the mid 1990s and thereafter. U.S. data also show a secular decline in the job destruction rate and the volatility of firm-level employment growth rates. We interpret this decline as a decrease in the intensity of idiosyncratic labor demand shocks, a key parameter in search and matching models of unemployment. According to these models, a lower intensity of idiosyncratic shocks produces less job destruction, fewer workers flowing through the unemployment pool and less frictional unemployment. To evaluate the importance of this theoretical mechanism, we relate industry-level unemployment flows from 1977 to 2005 to industry-level indicators for the intensity of idiosyncratic shocks. Unlike previous research, we focus on the lower frequency relationship of job destruction and business volatility to unemployment flows. We find strong evidence that declines in the intensity of idiosyncratic labor demand shocks drove big declines in the incidence and rate of unemployment. This evidence implies that the unemployment rate has become much less sensitive to cyclical movements in the job-finding rate.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperEmployment that is not covered by state unemployment
January 2002
Working Paper Number:
tp-2002-16
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