Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'demography'
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Viewing papers 11 through 13 of 13
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Working PaperRedistribution in the Current U.S. Social Security System
April 2002
Working Paper Number:
CES-02-09
Because its benefit formula replaces a greater fraction of the lifetime earnings of lower earners than of higher earnings, Social Security is generally thought to be progressive, providing a 'better deal' to low earners in a cohort than to high earners. However, much of the intra-cohort redistribution in the U.S. Social Security system is related to factors other than lifetime income. Social Security transfers income from people with low life expectancies to people with high life expectancies, from single workers and from married couples with substantial earnings by the secondary earner to married one-earner couples, and from people who work for more than 35 years to those who concentrate their earnings in 35 or fewer years. This paper studies the redistribution accomplished in the retirement portion of the current U.S. Social Security system using a microsimulation model built around a match of the 1990 and 1991 Surveys of Income and Program Participation to Social Security administrative earnings and benefit records. The model simulates the distribution of internal rates of returns, net transfers, and lifetime net tax rates from Social Security that would have been received by members of the 1925 to 1929 birth cohorts if they had lived under current Social Security rules for their entire lives. The paper finds that annual income-related transfers from Social Security are only 5 to 9 percent of Social Security benefits paid, or $19 to $34 billion, at 2001 aggregate benefits levels, when taxes and benefits are discounted at the cohort rate of return of 1.29 percent. At higher discount rates, Social Security appears to be more redistributive by some measures, and less redistributive by others. Because much of the redistribution that occurs through Social Security is not related to income, the range of transfers received at a given level of lifetime income is quite wide. For example, 19 percent of individuals in the top lifetime income quintile receive net transfers that are greater than the average transfer for people in the lowest lifetime income quintile.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe Contribution Of Establishment Births And Deaths To Employment Growth
April 1998
Working Paper Number:
CES-98-05
The purpose of this paper is to examine how establishment births and deaths contribute to job creation, job destruction, and net employment growth at different frequencies of measurement. The longitudinal data are constructed from quarterly unemployment insurance microdata, and are essentially a census of establishments in all industries. Defining establishment births and deaths turns out to be an exercise in how to use cross-sectional administrative data for longitudinal research purposes. The analysis of job flows indicates that the frame is relatively small but certainly non-trivial, whereas births and deaths account for roughly half of all jobs created and destroyed on a triennial time frame. Net Employment GrowthView Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperBusiness Failure In The 1992 Establishment Universe Sources Of Population Heterogeneity
December 1996
Working Paper Number:
CES-96-13
This study shows that establishment dissolution declines with age and that age at dissolution differs for broad industry and geography groups, establishment affiliation status, and establishment size. The paper uses Bureau of the Census Standard Statistical Establishment List datasets, a census of establishments with employment for the United States for the year 1992. Hence, the findings constitute a comprehensive source of information on the relation between age and dissolution and place in context similar findings of studies restricted to specific industries and/or geographic areas.View Full Paper PDF
