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The Link Between Aggregate and Micro Productivity Growth: Evidence from Retail Trade
August 2002
Working Paper Number:
CES-02-18
Understanding the nature and magnitude of resource reallocation, particularly as it relates to productivity growth, is important both because it affects how we model and interpret aggregate productivity dynamics, and also because market structure and institutions may affect the reallocation's magnitude and efficiency. Most evidence to date on the connection between reallocation and productivity dynamics for the U.S. and other countries comes from a single industry: manufacturing. Building upon a unique establishment-level data set of U.S. retail trade businesses, we provide some of the first evidence on the connection between reallocation and productivity dynamics in a non-manufacturing sector. Retail trade is a particularly appropriate subject for such a study since this large industry lies at the heart of many recent technological advances, such as E-commerce and advanced inventory controls. Our results show that virtually all of the productivity growth in the U.S. retail trade sector over the 1990s is accounted for by more productive entering establishments displacing much less productive exiting establishments. Interestingly, much of the between-establishment reallocation is a within, rather than betweenfirm phenomenon.
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Mergers and Acquisitions and Productivity in the U.S. Meat Products Industries: Evidence from the Micro Data
March 2002
Working Paper Number:
CES-02-07
This paper investigates the motives for mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. meat products industry from1977-92. Results show that acquired meat and poultry plants were highly productive before mergers, and that meat plants significantly improved productivity growth in the post-merger periods, but poultry plants did not.
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Entry, Expansion, and Intensity in the U.S. Export Boom, 1987-1992
September 2001
Working Paper Number:
CES-01-09
U.S. exports grew at a rate of 10.3% per year from 1987-1992, far faster than the economy as a whole and faster than in any other five year period since 1960. This paper examines the sources of the export boom considering the role of entry, firm expansion and export intensity. The preponderance of the increase in exports came from increasing export intensity at existing exporters rather than from new entry into exporting. The small role of entry relative to export intensity offers support for the importance of sunk costs in the export market. In addition, we consider competing explanations for the rise in exports using a comprehensive plant level data set. Changes in exchange rates and rises in foreign income were the dominant sources for the export increase, while productivity increases in U.S. plants played a relatively small role.
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Market Structure and Productivity: A Concrete Example
June 2001
Working Paper Number:
CES-01-06
This paper shows that imperfect output substitutability explains part of the observed persistent plant-level productivity dispersion. Specifically, as substitutability in a market increases, the market's productivity distribution exhibits falling dispersion and higher central tendency. The proposed mechanism behind this result is truncation of the distribution from below as increased substitutability shifts demand to lower-cost plants and drives inefficient plants out of business. In a case study of the ready-mixed concrete industry, I examine the impact of one manifestation of this effect, driven by geographic market segmentation resulting from transport costs. A theoretical foundation is presented characterizing how differences in the density of local demand impact the number of producers and the ability of customers to choose between suppliers, and through this, the equilibrium productivity and output levels across regions. I also introduce a new method of obtaining plant-level productivity estimates that is well suited to this application and avoids potential shortfalls of commonly used procedures. I use these estimates to empirically test the presented theory, and the results support the predictions of the model. Local demand density has a significant influence on the shape of plant-level productivity distributions, and accounts for part of the observed intra-industry variation in productivity, both between and within given market areas.
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Business Success: Factors Leading to Surviving and Closing Successfully
January 2001
Working Paper Number:
CES-01-01
This paper focuses on the startup factors that lead to new firms remaining open, and if they close, the factors leading to whether the owner considered the firm successful at closure. Two independent logit models were developed for closure and success characteristics using the Bureau of the Census' Characteristics of Business Owners (CBO). Business Information Tracking Series (BITS, formerly the LEEM), also from the Bureau of the Census, was used to evaluate business survival rates as the CBO had non-response bias with respect to closure. About half of new employer firms survive at least four years (an estimated one-third of non-employer firms survive this period), and of the firms that closed, owners of about a third felt the firm was successful at closure. Major factors leading to remaining open are having ample capital, having employees, having a good education, and starting for personal reasons (freedom for family life, or wanting to become one's own boss). If the firm closed, major factors leading to owners perceiving the business successful at closure are having no start-up capital or ample capital, having previous ownership experience, and avoiding the retail trade industry. Owners of firms with and without employees had similar rates of believing closed businesses were successful at closure. Owners who were young or started without capital had a higher likelihood of closure but when they closed, they were more likely to consider the firm successful. Gender, race and being older play a small, if any, role in survivability or in owners' perception that the closed firm was successful. Retail trade was the only variable that led to businesses being more likely to close, and more likely to be deemed unsuccessful by the owner at closure.
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Measuring the Electronic Economy: Current Status and Next Steps
June 2000
Working Paper Number:
CES-00-10
The recent growth of consumer retailing over the Internet draws attention to the electronic economy. However, businesses also conduct other business processes over computer networks, and many have been doing so for some time. Uses of computer networks attract attention because of assertions that they lead to new products and services, new delivery methods, streamlined or re-engineered business processes, new business structures, and enhanced business performance. These changes, in turn, potentially affect the performance of the entire economy, including economic growth, productivity, prices, employment, trade, and the structures of businesses, regions, and markets. Evaluating these assertions, and their effects on economic performance, requires solid statistical information about the electronic economy. This paper develops principles for identifying information critical to measuring the size and evaluating the potential effects of the electronic economy, relates that information to current data collection programs, and notes relevant measurement issues. Some of the required information about the electronic economy can be collected by adding questions to existing surveys, making the scope of existing surveys consistent, or developing new surveys. However, many key pieces of information pose significant challenges to economic measurement. While some of those challenges are specific to the electronic economy, others are long-standing ones. Interest in the electronic economy highlights the importance of continuing attempts to address these challenges. Improving and enhancing the statistical system to provide information about the electronic economy, therefore, would also substantially improve the baseline information available for evaluating the performance of the entire economy.
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IT Spending and Firm Productivity: Additional Evidence from the Manufacturing Sector
October 1999
Working Paper Number:
CES-99-10
The information systems (IS) "productivity paradox" is based on those studies that found little or no positive relationship between firm productivity and spending on IS. However, some earlier studies and one more recent study have found a positive relationship. Given the large amounts spent by organizations on information systems, it is important to understand the relationship between spending on IS and productivity. Beyond replicating positive results, an explanation is needed for the conflicting conclusions reached by these earlier studies. Data collected by the Bureau of the Census is analyzed to investigate the relationship between plant-level productivity and spending on IS. The relationship between productivity and spending on IS is investigated using assumptions and models similar to both studies with positive findings and studies with negative findings. First, the overall relationship is investigated across all manufacturing industries. Next, the relationship is investigated industry by industry. The analysis finds a positive relationship between plant-level productivity and spending on IS. The relationship is also shown to vary across industries. The conflicting results from earlier studies are explained by understanding the characteristics of the data analyzed in each study. A large enough sample size is needed to find the relatively smaller effect from IS spending as compared to other input spending included in the models. Because the relationship between productivity and IS spending varies across industries, industry mix is shown to be an important data characteristic that may have influenced prior results.
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The Characteristics of Business Owners Database, 1992
May 1999
Working Paper Number:
CES-99-08
This report describes the Characteristics of Business Owners (CBO), 1992 microdata available to researchers at the Center for Economic Studies and the CBO survey. The Bureau of the Census has conducted the 1982, 1987, and 1992 CBOs for the U.S. Small Business Administration, the Minority Business Development Agency, and the general public. For the 1992 CBO, there were three surveys, a sole proprietor survey, an owner survey for each owner in partnerships and S corporations, and a firm survey for each partnership and S corporation. For database purposes, the owner questions on the sole proprietors survey and owner survey were merged, and the firm questions on the sole proprietors survey and firm survey were merged. The owner database has 116,589 records, and the firm survey has 78,147 records. The CBO reports on owners about their background such as owner type (race, and ethnicity), age, education, work experience, veteran status, etc. The CBO reports on firms (with and without employees) about their economic details such as industry, financing, home-based, exporting, franchising, profits, etc. In addition, the CBO was conducted in 1996 on firms in existence in 1992 allowing for some survivability analysis. The CBO over samples women and minority owners to allow researchers to more reliably study these owners. This survey is an extension of the Survey of Minority-Owned Business Enterprises (SMOBE) and Survey of Women-Owned Businesses (WOB) within the economic census. The CBO is available as a report, special tabulations, or microdata for approved researchers.
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THE MANUFACTURING PLANT OWNERSHIP CHANGE DATABASE: ITS CONSTRUCTION AND USEFULNESS
September 1998
Working Paper Number:
CES-98-16
The Center for Economic Studies, U. S. Bureau of the Census, has constructed the "Manufacturing Plant Ownership Change Database" (OCD)using plant-level data taken from the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Research Database (LRD). The OCD contains data on all manufacturing establishments that have experienced ownership change at least once during the period 1963-1992 . This is a unique data set which, together with the LRD, can be used to conduct a variety of economic studies that were not possible before. This paper describes how the OCD was constructed and discusses the usefulness of these data for economic research.
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Whittling Away At Productivity Dispersion Futher Notes: Persistent Dispersion or Measurement Error?
November 1996
Working Paper Number:
CES-96-11
This note considers several hypotheses regarding measurement error as a source of observed cross-sectional dispersion in plant-level productivity in the US textile industry. The hypotheses that reporting error and/or price rigidity in either materials and/or output account for a substantial portion of the observed dispersion in productivity are consistent with the data. Similarly, the hypothesis that transitory product niches or fashion effects lead to differential markups and consequently dispersion in observed productivity is consistent with the data. The hypothesis that transfer pricing problems lead to persistent differences in plant-level productivity, in contrast, does not appear to be consistent with the data. Finally, the hypothesis that some plants have permanent product niches that lead to dispersion in observed productivity does not appear to be consistent with data. In order to avoid imposing a strong functional form on the data, this note follows a non-parametric methodology developed in the early paper.
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