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Modeling Single Establishment Firm Returns to the 2007 Economic Census
September 2011
Working Paper Number:
CES-11-28
The Economic Census is one of the most important activities that the U.S. Census Bureau performs. It is critical for updating firm ownership/structure and industry information for a large number of businesses in the Census Bureau's Business Register, impacting most other economic programs. Also, it feeds into Bureau of Economic Analysis products, such as benchmark inputoutput accounts and Gross Domestic Product. The overall check-in rate for the 2007 Economic Census was just over 86%. Establishments owned by multi-location companies returned over 90% of their forms, as compared to the roughly two million single-establishment firms sampled in the Census that returned just over 80%. We model the check-in rate for single-establishment firms by using a large number of variables that might be correlated with whether or not a firm returns a form in the Economic Census. These variables are broadly categorized as the characteristics of firms, measures of external factors, and features of the survey design. We use the model for two purposes. First, by including many of the factors that may be correlated with returns we aim to focus limited advertising and outreach resources to low-return segments of the population. Second, we use the model to investigate the efficacy of an unplanned intervention expected to increase return rates: using certified mailing for one of the form follow-ups.
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A Guide to the MEPS-IC Government List Sample Microdata
September 2011
Working Paper Number:
CES-11-27
The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey-Insurance Component (MEPS-IC) is conducted to provide nationally representative estimates on employer sponsored health insurance. MEPSIC data are collected from private sector employers, as well as state and local governments. While similar information is gathered from these two sectors, differences in the survey process exist. The goal of this paper is to provide details on the public sector including types of state and local government employers, sample design, general information on the data collected in the MEPS-IC, and additional sources of information.
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Estimating Measurement Error in SIPP Annual Job Earnings: A Comparison of Census Bureau Survey and SSA Administrative Data
July 2011
Working Paper Number:
CES-11-20
We quantify sources of variation in annual job earnings data collected by the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to determine how much of the variation is the result of measurement error. Jobs reported in the SIPP are linked to jobs reported in an administrative database, the Detailed Earnings Records (DER) drawn from the Social Security Administration's Master Earnings File, a universe file of all earnings reported on W-2 tax forms. As a result of the match, each job potentially has two earnings observations per year: survey and administrative. Unlike previous validation studies, both of these earnings measures are viewed as noisy measures of some underlying true amount of annual earnings. While the existence of survey error resulting from respondent mistakes or misinterpretation is widely accepted, the idea that administrative data are also error-prone is new. Possible sources of employer reporting error, employee under-reporting of compensation such as tips, and general differences between how earnings may be reported on tax forms and in surveys, necessitates the discarding of the assumption that administrative data are a true measure of the quantity that the survey was designed to collect. In addition, errors in matching SIPP and DER jobs, a necessary task in any use of administrative data, also contribute to measurement error in both earnings variables. We begin by comparing SIPP and DER earnings for different demographic and education groups of SIPP respondents. We also calculate different measures of changes in earnings for individuals switching jobs. We estimate a standard earnings equation model using SIPP and DER earnings and compare the resulting coefficients. Finally exploiting the presence of individuals with multiple jobs and shared employers over time, we estimate an econometric model that includes random person and firm effects, a common error component shared by SIPP and DER earnings, and two independent error components that represent the variation unique to each earnings measure. We compare the variance components from this model and consider how the DER and SIPP differ across unobservable components.
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Errors in Survey Reporting and Imputation and Their Effects on Estimates of Food Stamp Program Participation
April 2011
Working Paper Number:
CES-11-14
Benefit receipt in major household surveys is often underreported. This misreporting leads to biased estimates of the economic circumstances of disadvantaged populations, program takeup, and the distributional effects of government programs, and other program effects. We use administrative data on Food Stamp Program (FSP) participation matched to American Community Survey (ACS) and Current Population Survey (CPS) household data. We show that nearly thirty-five percent of true recipient households do not report receipt in the ACS and fifty percent do not report receipt in the CPS. Misreporting, both false negatives and false positives, varies with individual characteristics, leading to complicated biases in FSP analyses. We then directly examine the determinants of program receipt using our combined administrative and survey data. The combined data allow us to examine accurate participation using individual characteristics missing in administrative data. Our results differ from conventional estimates using only survey data, as such estimates understate participation by single parents, non-whites, low income households, and other groups. To evaluate the use of Census Bureau imputed ACS and CPS data, we also examine whether our estimates using survey data alone are closer to those using the accurate combined data when imputed survey observations are excluded. Interestingly, excluding the imputed observations leads to worse ACS estimates, but has less effect on the CPS estimates.
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Comparing Measures of Earnings Instability Based on Survey and Adminstrative Reports
August 2010
Working Paper Number:
CES-10-15
In Celik, Juhn, McCue, and Thompson (2009), we found that estimated levels of earnings instability based on data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) were reasonably close to each other and to others' estimates from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), but estimates from unemployment insurance (UI) earnings were much larger. Given that the UI data are from administrative records which are often posited to be more accurate than survey reports, this raises concerns that measures based on survey data understate true earnings instability. To address this, we use links between survey samples from the SIPP and UI earnings records in the LEHD database to identify sources of differences in work history and earnings information. Substantial work has been done comparing earnings levels from administrative records to those collected in the SIPP and CPS, but our understanding of earnings instability would benefit from further examination of differences across sources in the properties of changes in earnings. We first compare characteristics of the overall and matched samples to address issues of selection in the matching process. We then compare earnings levels and jobs in the SIPP and LEHD data to identify differences between them. Finally we begin to examine how such differences affect estimates of earnings instability. Our preliminary findings suggest that differences in earnings changes for those in the lower tail of the earnings distribution account for much of the difference in instability estimates.
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The Center for Economic Studies 1982-2007: A Brief History
October 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-35
More than half a century ago, visionaries representing both the Census Bureau and the external research community laid the foundation for the Center for Economic Studies (CES) and the Research Data Center (RDC) system. They saw a clear need for a system meeting the inextricably related requirements of providing more and better information from existing Census Bureau data collections while preserving respondent confidentiality and privacy. CES opened in 1982 to house new longitudinal business databases, develop them further, and make them available to qualified researchers. CES and the RDC system evolved to meet the designers' requirements. Research at CES and the RDCs meets the commitments of the Census Bureau (and, recently, of other agencies) to preserving confidentiality while contributing paradigm-shifting fundamental research in a range of disciplines and up-to-the-minute critical tools for decision-makers.
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Resolving the Tension Between Access and Confidentiality: Past Experience and Future Plans at the U.S. Census Bureau
September 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-33
This paper provides an historical context for access to U.S. Federal statistical data with a primary focus on the U.S. Census Bureau. We review the various modes used by the Census Bureau to make data available to users, and highlight the costs and benefits associated with each. We highlight some of the specific improvements underway or under consideration at the Census Bureau to better serve its data users, as well as discuss the broad strategies employed by statistical agencies to respond to the challenges of data access.
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Complex Survey Questions and the Impact of Enumeration Procedures: Census/American Community Survey Disability Questions
April 2009
Working Paper Number:
CES-09-10
This paper explores challenges relating to the identification of the population with disabilities,focusing on Census Bureau efforts using the 2000 Decennial Census Long-Form (Census 2000) and 2000-2005 American Community Survey (ACS). In particular, the analyses explore the impact of survey methods on responses to the work limitation (i.e., employment disability) question in these two Census products. Building on the research of Stern (2003) and Stern and Brault (2005), we look for further evidence of misreporting of an employment disability by specific sub-populations using the participation in the Supplemental Security Income program as an exogenous employment disability status indicator along with a subset of ACS disability questions. We expand upon these earlier studies by examining both false-positive and falsenegative reports of employment disability by implementing logit estimations to examine the role of respondent/enumerator error on the accuracy of the employment disability response. In this manner, we enhance our understanding of Census 2000 and ACS responses to employment disability questions through an exploration of the role of enumeration procedures in two types of misclassifications, as well as by evaluating existing data and estimates to uncover characteristics that might make an individual more likely to misreport an employment disability.
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Measuring Labor Earnings Inequality Using Public-Use March Current Population Survey Data: The Value of Including Variances and Cell Means When Imputing Topcoded Values
November 2008
Working Paper Number:
CES-08-38
Using the Census Bureau's internal March Current Population Surveys (CPS) file, we construct and make available variances and cell means for all topcoded income values in the publicuse version of these data. We then provide a procedure that allows researchers with access only to the public-use March CPS data to take advantage of this added information when imputing its topcoded income values. As an example of its value we show how our new procedure improves on existing imputation methods in the labor earnings inequality literature.
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A Comparison of Employee Benefits Data from the MEPS-IC and Form 5500
September 2008
Working Paper Number:
CES-08-32
This paper compares data on employers\u2019 health and pension offerings from the two sources: publicly available administrative data from Form 5500 filings and survey data from the Insurance Component of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS-IC). The basic findings are that the 5500 filings cover too few health plans to be very useful as a substitute or supplement to the MEPS-IC measure of whether or not employers offer health insurance. The pension information in the 5500 filings is potentially more useful as a supplement to the MEPSIC for research purposes where additional pension information would be useful in studying employers\u2019 decisions to offer health insurance.
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