Papers Containing Keywords(s): 'labor'
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Viewing papers 91 through 100 of 250
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Working PaperJob-to-Job Flows and Earnings Growth*
January 2017
Working Paper Number:
CES-17-08
The U.S. workforce has had little change in real wages, income, or earnings since the year 2000. However, even when there is little change in the average rate at which workers are compensated, individual workers experienced a distribution of wage and earnings changes. In this paper, we demonstrate how earnings evolve in the U.S. economy in the years 2001-2014 on a forthcoming dataset on earnings for stayers and transitioners from the U.S. Census Bureau's Job-to-Job Flows data product to account for the role of on-the-job earnings growth, job-to-job flows, and nonemployment in the growth of U.S. earnings.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperLocal Labor Demand and Program Participation Dynamics
November 2016
Working Paper Number:
carra-2016-10
Estimates the effect of fluctuations in local labor conditions on the likelihood that existing participants are able to transition out of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Our primary data are SNAP administrative records from New York (2007-2012) linked to the 2010 Census at the person-level. We further augment these data by linking to industry-specific labor market indicators at the county-level. We find that local labor markets matter for the length of time individuals spend on SNAP, but there is substantial heterogeneity in estimated effects across local industries. While employment growth in industries with small shares of SNAP participants has no impact on SNAP exits, growth in local industries with creases the likelihood that recipients exit the program. We also observe corresponding increases in entries when these industries experience localized contractions. Notably, estimated industry effects vary across race groups and parental status, with Black Alone non-Hispanic, Hispanic, and mothers benefiting the least from improvements in local labor market conditions.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperDifferences in Self-employment Duration by Year of Entry & Pre-entry
November 2016
Working Paper Number:
carra-2016-09
Self-employment is associated with entrepreneurship and a motivation to pursue an opportunity. Previous research indicates that people also become self-employed because of limited opportunities in the wage sector. Using a unique set of data that links the American Community Survey to Form 1040 and W-2 records, this paper extends the existing literature by examining self-employment duration for five consecutive entry cohorts, including two cohorts who entered self-employment during the Great Recession. Severely limited labor market opportunities may have driven many in the recession cohorts to enter self-employment, while those entering self-employment during the boom may have been pursuing opportunities under favorable market conditions. To more explicitly test the concept of "necessity" versus "opportunity" self-employment, we also examine the pre-entry wage labor attachment of entrants. Specifically, we ask whether an association exists between wage labor attachment and the duration of self-employment. We also explore whether the demographic/socio-economic characteristics and self-employment exit behavior of the cohorts are different, and if so, how. We find evidence consistent with the existence of "necessity" vs. "opportunity" self-employment types.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperThe New Lifecycle of Women's Employment: Disappearing Humps, Sagging Middle, Expanding Tops
November 2016
Working Paper Number:
carra-2016-07
The new lifecycle of women's employment is initially high and flat, there is a dip in the middle and a phasing out that is more prolonged than for previous cohorts. The hump is gone, the middle is a bit sagging and the top has greatly expanded. We explore the increase in cumulative work experience for women from the 1930s to the 1970s birth cohorts using the SIPP and the HRS. We investigate the changing labor force impact of a birth event across cohorts and by education and also the impact of taking leave or quitting. We find greatly increased labor force experience across cohorts, far less time out after a birth and greater labor force recovery for those who take paid or unpaid leave. More work experience across the lifecycle is related to the increased employment of women in their older ages.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperIncome Effects in Labor Supply: Evidence from Child-Related Tax Benefits
May 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-24
A parent whose child is born in December can claim child-related tax benefits when she files her tax return a few months later. Parents of children born in January must wait more than a year before they can receive child-related tax benefits. As a result, families with December births have higher after-tax income in the first year of a child's life than otherwise similar families with January births. This paper estimates the corresponding income effect on maternal labor supply, testing whether mothers who give birth in December work and earn less in the months following birth. We use data from the American Community Survey, the Survey of Income and Program Participation, and the 2000 Decennial Census. We find that December mothers have a lower probability of working, particularly in the third month after a child's birth. Earnings data from the SIPP indicate that an additional dollar of child-related tax benefits reduces annual maternal earnings in the year following a child's birth by approximately one dollar.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperRevisiting the Effects of Unemployment Insurance Extensions on Unemployment: A Measurement Error-Corrected Regression Discontinuity Approach
March 2016
Working Paper Number:
carra-2016-01
The extension of Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits was a key policy response to the Great Recession. However, these benefit extensions may have had detrimental labor market effects. While evidence on the individual labor supply response indicates small effects on unemployment, recent work by Hagedorn et al. (2015) uses a county border pair identification strategy to find that the total effects inclusive of effects on labor demand are substantially larger. By focusing on variation within border county pairs, this identification strategy requires counties in the pairs to be similar in terms of unobservable factors. We explore this assumption using an alternative regression discontinuity approach that controls for changes in unobservables by distance to the border. To do so, we must account for measurement error induced by using county-level aggregates. These new results provide no evidence of a large change in unemployment induced by differences in UI generosity across state boundaries. Further analysis suggests that individuals respond to UI benefit differences across boundaries by targeting job search in high-benefit states, thereby raising concerns of treatment spillovers in this setting. Taken together, these two results suggest that the effect of UI benefit extensions on unemployment remains an open question.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperHires and Separations in Equilibrium
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-57
Hiring occurs primarily to fill vacant slots that occur when workers separate. Equivalently, separation occurs to move workers to better alternatives. A model of efficient separations yields several specific predictions. Labor market churn is most likely when mean wages are low and the variance in wages is high. Additionally, over the business cycle, churn decreases during recessions, with hires falling at the beginning of recessions and separations declining later to match hiring. Furthermore, the young disproportionately bear the brunt of employment declines. More generally, hires and separations are positively correlated over time as well as across industry and firm. These predictions are borne out in the LEHD microdata at the economy and firm level.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperTaking the Leap: The Determinants of Entrepreneurs Hiring their First Employee
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-48
Job creation is one of the most important aspects of entrepreneurship, but we know relatively little about the hiring patterns and decisions of startups. Longitudinal data from the Integrated Longitudinal Business Database (iLBD), Kauffman Firm Survey (KFS), and the Growing America through Entrepreneurship (GATE) experiment are used to provide some of the first evidence in the literature on the determinants of taking the leap from a non-employer to employer firm among startups. Several interesting patterns emerge regarding the dynamics of non-employer startups hiring their first employee. Hiring rates among the universe of non-employer startups are very low, but increase when the population of non-employers is focused on more growth-oriented businesses such as incorporated and EIN businesses. If non-employer startups hire, the bulk of hiring occurs in the first few years of existence. After this point in time relatively few non-employer startups hire an employee. Focusing on more growth- and employment-oriented startups in the KFS, we find that Asian-owned and Hispanic-owned startups have higher rates of hiring their first employee than white-owned startups. Female-owned startups are roughly 10 percentage points less likely to hire their first employee by the first, second and seventh years after startup. The education level of the owner, however, is not found to be associated with the probability of hiring an employee. Among business characteristics, we find evidence that business assets and intellectual property are associated with hiring the first employee. Using data from the largest random experiment providing entrepreneurship training in the United States ever conducted, we do not find evidence that entrepreneurship training increases the likelihood that non-employers hire their first employee.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperEntrepreneurial teams' acquisition of talent: a two-sided approach
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-45
While it is crucial for startups to hire high human capital employees, little is known about what drives the hiring decisions. Considering the stakes for both startups and their hires (i.e., joiners), we examine the phenomenon using a two-sided matching model that explicitly reveals the preferences of each side. We apply the model to a sample of startups from five technological manufacturing industries while examining a range of variables grounded in prior work on startup human capital. The analysis is based on the Longitudinal Employer Household dynamics from the U.S. Census Bureau. Our findings indicate that, in the context of entrepreneurship, both startups and joiners rely heavily on signals of quality. Further, quality considerations that are important for the match play a minimal role in determining earnings. Our approach refines our understanding of how entrepreneurial human capital evolves.View Full Paper PDF
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Working PaperInterstate Migration and Employer-to-Employer Transitions in the U.S.: New Evidence from Administrative Records Data
January 2016
Working Paper Number:
CES-16-44R
Declines in migration across labor markets have prompted concerns that the U.S. economy is becoming less dynamic. In this paper we examine the relationship between residential migration and employer-to-employer transitions using both survey and administrative records data. We first note strong disagreement between the Current Population Survey (CPS) and other migration statistics on the timing and severity of any decline in interstate migration. Despite these divergent patterns for overall residential migration, we find consistent evidence of a substantial decline in economic migration between 2000 and 2010. We find that composition and the returns to migration have limited ability to explain recent changes in interstate migration.View Full Paper PDF
