Papers written by Author(s): 'Robert H Mcguckin'
The following papers contain search terms that you selected. From the papers listed below, you can navigate to the PDF, the profile page for that working paper, or see all the working papers written by an author. You can also explore tags, keywords, and authors that occur frequently within these papers.
See Working Papers by Tag(s), Keywords(s), Author(s), or Search Text
Click here to search again
Frequently Occurring Concepts within this Search
Authors
Sang V Nguyen - 7
Viewing papers 11 through 18 of 18
-
Working PaperMultiple Classification Systems For Economic Data: Can A Thousand Flowers Bloom? And Should They?
December 1991
Working Paper Number:
CES-91-08
The principle that the statistical system should provide flexibility-- possibilities for generating multiple groupings of data to satisfy multiple objectives--if it is to satisfy users is universally accepted. Yet in practice, this goal has not been achieved. This paper discusses the feasibility of providing flexibility in the statistical system to accommodate multiple uses of the industrial data now primarily examined within the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In one sense, the question of feasibility is almost trivial. With today's computer technology, vast amounts of data can be manipulated and stored at very low cost. Reconfigurations of the basic data are very inexpensive compared to the cost of collecting the data. Flexibility in the statistical system implies more than the technical ability to regroup data. It requires that the basic data are sufficiently detailed to support user needs and are processed and maintained in a fashion that makes the use of a variety of aggregation rules possible. For this to happen, statistical agencies must recognize the need for high quality microdata and build this into their planning processes. Agencies need to view their missions from a multiple use perspective and move away from use of a primary reporting and collection vehicle. Although the categories used to report data must be flexible, practical considerations dictate that data collection proceed within a fixed classification system. It is simply too expensive for both respondents and statistical agencies to process survey responses in the absence of standardized forms, data entry programs, etc. I argue for a basic classification centered on commodities--products, services, raw materials and labor inputs--as the focus of data collection. The idea is to make the principle variables of interest--the commodities--the vehicle for the collection and processing of the data. For completeness, the basic classification should include labor usage through some form of occupational classification. In most economic surveys at the Census Bureau, the reporting unit and the classified unit have been the establishment. But there is no need for this to be so. The basic principle to be followed in data collection is that the data should be collected in the most efficient way--efficiency being defined jointly in terms of statistical agency collection costs and respondent burdens.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperTHE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG ACQUIRING AND ACQUIRED FIRMS' PRODUCT LINES
September 1990
Working Paper Number:
CES-90-12
This study develops detailed information on the relationships among the activities of acquiring and acquired firms at and near the time of merger for a sample of 94 takeovers undertaken between 1977-1982. We focus on takeovers for two reasons. First, takeovers are an important and controversial phenomenon. Second, takeovers allow us to look at marginal changes, admittedly large ones, in the firm's boundaries. Thus, they provide a useful way of examining relationships among activities of the firm without having to go into great detail regarding the historical decisions that generated the firm's current structure. While the individual establishment is our basic data unit, in this study we aggregate the activities of the firm to the line of business (LOB) level. Each LOB of an acquired firm is classified as to its relationship horizontal, vertical (upstream or downstream), and conglomerate to the LOBs of the acquiring firm. Using these categorizations we aggregate the LOB-level information to the firm level to investigate the degree to which our sample of mergers is specialized to particular types of relationships. While we find a significant group of unspecialized takeovers, most appear to fit a specific category. We also look at the pattern of closed operations immediately following the takeover. Closings are generally concentrated in operations involving horizontal relationships. Finally, we consider the pattern of relationships between hostile and friendly takeovers and whether takeover premiums vary by type of merger. Merger premiums are not related to the type of relationship between the acquiring and acquired firm, but they are tied to whether the takeover is friendly or hostile.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperLongitudinal Economic Data At The Census Bureau: A New Database Yields Fresh Insight On Some Old Issues
January 1990
Working Paper Number:
CES-90-01
This paper has two goals. First, it illustrates the importance of panel data with examples taken from research in progress using the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Research Database ( LRD ). Although the LRD is not the result of a "true" longitudinal survey, it provides both balanced and unbalanced panel data sets for establishments, firms, and lines of business. The second goal is to integrate the results of recent research with the LRD and to draw conclusions about the importance of longitudinal microdata for econometric research and time series analysis. The advantages of panel data arise from both the micro and time series aspects of the observations. This also leads us to consider why panel data are necessary to understand and interpret the time series behavior of aggregate statistics produced in cross-section establishment surveys and censuses. We find that typical homogeneity assumptions are likely to be inappropriate in a wide variety of applications. In particular, the industry in which an establishment is located, the ownership of the establishment, and the existence of the establishment (births and deaths) are endogenous variables that cannot simply be taken as time invariant fixed effects in econometric modeling.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperMultifactor Productivity And Sources of Growth In Chinese Industry: 1980-85
October 1989
Working Paper Number:
CES-89-08
This paper examines the economic performance of the Chinese industrial sector in the post-reform period 1980-1985. A multifactor productivity model is used to isolate the contributions of labor, capital, and technical efficiency to growth in industrial output. Using information from the National Industrial Census of China (1988) for large and medium-size enterprises, we find that growth in industrial labor productivity in the post-reform period is attributable to increases in capital intensity not technical efficiency. Moreover, collective and other nonstate enterprises show higher partial labor and multifactor productivity gains than do state enterprises. We also find that multifactor productivity gains are closely tied to increases in retained profits and the proportion of total employees that are technical workers. Surprisingly, labor bonuses have a near zero or negative effect on multifactor productivity growth although this result is not very robust.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperMeasuring The Trade Balance In Advanced Technology Products
January 1989
Working Paper Number:
CES-89-01
Because of the dramatic decline in the United States Trade Balance since the early 1970's, many economists and policy makers have become increasingly concerned about the ability of U.S. manufacturers to compete with foreign producers. Initially concern was limited to a few basic industries such as shoes, clothing, and steel; but more recently foreign producers have been effectively competing with U.S. manufacturers in automobiles, electronics, and other consumer products. It now seems that foreign producers are even challenging the dominance of America in high technology industries. The most recent publication from the International Trade Administration shows that the U.S. Trade Balance in high technology industries fell from a $24 billion surplus in 1982, to a $2.6 billion deficit in 1986, before rebounding to a $591 million surplus in 1987. As part of the efforts of the U.S. Census Bureau to provide policy makers and other interested parties with the most complete and accurate information possible, we recently completed a review of the methodology and data used to construct trade statistics in the area of high technology trade. Our findings suggest that the statistics presented by the International Trade Administration, although technically correct, do not provide an accurate picture of international trade in high or advanced technology products because of the level of aggregation used in their construction. The ITA statistics are based on the Department of Commerce's DOC3 definition of high technology industries. The DOC3 definition requires that each product classified in a high tech industry be designated high tech. As a result, many products which would not individually be considered high tech are included in the statistics. After developing a disaggregate, product- based measure of international trade in Advanced Technology Products (ATP), we find that although the trade balance in these products did decline over the 1982-1987 period, the decline is much smaller (about $5 billion) than reported by ITA (approximately $24 billion). This paper discusses the methodology used to define the ATP measure, contrasts it to the DOC3 measure, and provides a comparison of the resulting statistics. After discussing alternative approaches to identifying advanced technology products, Section 2 describes the advanced technologies in the classification. (Appendix A, provides definitions and examples of the products which embody these technologies. In addition, Appendix B, available on request, provides a comprehensive list of Advanced Technology Products by technology grouping.) Having described the ATPs, Section 3 examines annual trade statistics for ATP products, in 1982, 1986, and 1987, and compares these statistics with equivalent ones based on the DOC3 measure. The differences between the two measures over the 1982- 87 period stem from changes in the balance of trade of items included in the DOC3 measure but excluded by the Census ATP measure; i.e. the differences are due to changes in the trade balance of "low tech" products which are produced in "high tech" industries. This finding corroborates a principal argument for construction of the ATP measure, that the weakness of the DOC3 measure of high technology trade is the level of aggregation used in its construction. It also suggests that at the level of individual products the high technology sectors of the economy continue to enjoy a strong comparative advantage and are surprisingly healthy. Nonetheless, some areas of weakness are identified, such as low tech products in high tech industries. (Appendix C, supplements this material by providing a detailed listing of traded products included and excluded from the Advanced Technology definition for each DOC3 high tech commodity grouping. These Tables enable the reader to directly assess the Census classification.)View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperPublic Use Microdata: Disclosure And Usefulness
September 1988
Working Paper Number:
CES-88-03
Official statistical agencies such as the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics collect enormous quantities of microdata in statistical surveys. These data are valuable for economic research and market and policy analysis. However, the data cannot be released to the public because of confidentiality commitments to individual respondents. These commitments, coupled with the strong research demand for microdata, have led the agencies to consider various proposals for releasing public use microdata. Most proposals for public use microdata call for the development of surrogate data that disguise the original data. Thus, they involve the addition of measurement errors to the data. In this paper, we examine disclosure issues and explore alternative masking methods for generating panels of useful economic microdata that can be released to researchers. While our analysis applies to all confidential microdata, applications using the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Research Data Base (LRD) are used for illustrative purposes throughout the discussion.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperThe Longitudinal Research Database (LRD): Status And Research Possibilities
July 1988
Working Paper Number:
CES-88-02
This paper discusses the development and use of the Longitudinal Research Data available at the Center for Economic Studies of the Bureau of the Census in terms of what has been accomplished thus far, what projects are currently in progress, and what plans are in place for the near future. The major achievement to date is the construction of the database itself, which contains data for manufacturing establishments collected by the Census in 1963, 1967, 1972, 1977 and 1982, and the Annual Survey of Manufactures for non-Census years from 1973 to 1985. These data now reside in the Center's computer in a consistent format across all years. In addition, a large software development task that greatly simplifies the task of selecting subsets of the database for specific research projects is well underway. Finally, a number of powerful microcomputers have been purchased for use by researchers for their statistical analysis. Current efforts underway at the Center include research on such policy-relevant issues as mergers and their impact on profits and production, high technology trade, import competition, plant level productivity, entry and exit, and productivity differences between large and small firms. Due to the confidentiality requirements of the Census data, most of their research is performed by Center staff and Special Sworn Employees. Under certain circumstances, the Center accepts user-written programs from outside researchers. These routines are executed by Center staff, and the resultant output is reviewed thoroughly for disclosure problems. The Center is also an active member of a task force working on methods on release "masked" or "cloned" microdata in public-use files that will protect the confidentiality of the data while at the same time provide a research tool for outside users. The Center research program contributes directly to future research possibilities. The current batch of research projects is adding insight into the nature of the LRD database. This information is continually being incorporated into the Center's software system, thus facilitating yet more research activity. Moreover, since a good portion of the research involves linking the Longitudinal Research Data to other data files, such as the NSF/Census R&D data, the scope of the databases is continually being expanded. Furthermore, the Center is exploring the possibility of linking the demographic data collected by the Census Bureau to the LRD database.View Full Paper PDF
-
Working PaperLong-Run Expectations And Capacity
April 1988
Working Paper Number:
CES-88-01
In this paper, we argue at a general level, that recent economic models of capacity and of its utilization are deficient because they do not adequately take into account firms' long-run expectations about conditions which are pertinent to their investment decisions, i.e., their decisions about altering productive capacity. We argue that the problem with these models is that they rely on the two conventional definitions of capacity which ignore these long-run expectations. Accordingly, we propose a third definition of capacity which incorporates these expectations and, thereby, corrects the problem. Furthermore, we argue that a correct, empirical analysis with the proposed definition -- indeed, any credible analysis of capacity or its utilization -- must take into account the demand for the output produced by the firms being studied. Finally, we apply the definition to clarify the meaning of surveys of capacity and, thus, show how it can be used to improve future surveys of capacity.View Full Paper PDF
